Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday - Showers and Thunderstorms possible. High: 68-72
 

Thursday Night- Cloud with a possible shower. Low: 40-44

 Friday - Clouds moving out. High: 48-52

Friday Night -  Clear.  Low: 32-36

 


 Saturday - Sunny.  High:  56-60

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Discussion: 
Rain will persist all day with a small chance of severe storms in the afternoon and early evening. As we move into the overnight hours a cold front associated with a low pressure system will move into the area. The front will bring much cooler temps and possibly more rain Friday morning. As the front passes, skies will begin to clear for Saturday and Sunday. However, temps will still remain seasonally below average.  

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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Pauley, Munley
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 10,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC guidance recommends a general model blend for the forecast period, NAM specific after 00Z Saturday and will also use the SREF and GEFS this morning.

This morning moderate to even heavy rain at times was observed with light winds out of the east/southeast.

The main focus of this forecast period is the possibility of severe weather this afternoon/evening and the timing of the cold frontal passage tomorrow. 

The rain that we are getting this morning will continue into the early afternoon. There will be a break in the precipitation later this afternoon which will give us the potential for the formation of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. The main question we have as of right now for this is, will the sun come out this afternoon? As of now, even though CAPE values are showing reaching near 2,000 j/kg and the LI is around -5, it doesn't appear that we will be getting the severe thunderstorms that are associated with those values. The reason for this is we lack upper level support at 250mb and the vertical velocities at 700mb are in the negatives which indicates downward vertical motion. Lastly, it doesn't appear that the sun will come out today, so there won't be much evaporation of the rainfall that we are having right now. Currently showers and storms are still firing off over in eastern Kansas/western Missouri and zapping the atmosphere of energy even more. The more storms that fire out to the west is bringing down the confidence for severe weather this afternoon. However, the possibility of general thunderstorms is not out of the question. This is because PWAT values are near 2.00in, so we will definitely still have enough moisture to work with. I do think however that the higher possibility of severe thunderstorms will be off to west and southwest. It is expected that those storms could maintain their strength enough to make their way to Mid-Missouri, and even though they will be weakening as they move across the state, they still could be strong enough to produce some heavy rain and gusty winds. Showers and storms could persist through the early part of the overnight hours due to the LLJ that is still moving at about 30-40kts.  When the rain is all said and done rain totals are anticipated to be around 1.00-2.00in, areal flooding is a concern as well. After the passage of these thunderstorms, we will have a shift in wind direction to out of the northwest associates with the low pressure that is over southern Minnesota. The passage of this cold front looks to be around the 12-1am time frame tomorrow morning. Friday morning scattered showers are possible until the late morning hours. Throughout the day Friday, the temperatures will continue to drop which will give us a high temperature for Friday in the morning hours. Temperatures throughout the duration of this front will drop much below seasonal values for this time of year along with clouds making their way out of the area Friday evening. The lack of clouds overnight will allow for radiation cooling to occur which will drop our temperatures to the coldest we've seen so far this season. Gusty winds will also be a factor Friday and Saturday due to a low-level draped over us which will give us winds of around 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Temperatures will be well below seasonal average for Saturday as well with the gusty winds. Saturday morning temperatures are expected to drop to the mid to low 30s, wind chills return to the forecast and could feel like the mid to low 20s at times. Windy conditions continuing throughout Saturday due to the low-level jet still over head as winds mix down to the surface.