Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy, with clouds increasing through the day. High: 50-54

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with Light Rain. Low:  28-32

Thursday - Cloudy with rain ending in the morning. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. High: 36-40

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22

Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 38-42

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Discussion: 
Today will see the last day of relatively warm temperatures in the forecast.  Southerly winds will keep our temperatures somewhat higher, but cloud cover will keep them from being exceptionally high.  Temperatures are expected to drop due to the passage of a cold front around midnight.  Minimal rain is expected with this cold front, with the main threat of rain being from light showers.  Thursday will start to see clouds clearing out after the morning, and temperatures will stay down due to winds out of the north.  Thursday night is expected to be exceptionally cold, with temperatures dropping into the low 20s due to clear skies and northerly winds.  Friday will see spotty cloud cover, and winds switch to out of the south.

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Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  9:15 a.m. November 6, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  
 
WPC model diagnostics recommends a general model blend, and the forecast will be made primarily using the GFS.  The SREF will be used for temperature forecasting. 

Current surface analysis shows Columbia in WAA on the backside of the surface high now based over southern Indiana.  SkewTs indicate clouds will start building in ahead of the front, rendering us cloudy for most of the day.  Frontal passage is expected around midnight.  Some precipitation is expected, however it appears the main axis for precipitation is now well off to our south.  We will still get some precipitation, but it seems as if it it will be quite light.  Winter precipitation seems quite unlikely at this point, as soundings drop below freezing only after all saturation has disappeared.  Thus, no wintry precipitation has been put into the forecast.  This can be adjusted 1 more time in the afternoon forecast, however previous forecasts have been quite consistent in ruling out wintry precipitation. 

Thursday morning will see the end of rain.  Columbia will start off cloudy, but will transition to mostly clear by 21Z.  CAA will continue into the area as we are post-frontal.  There is also a surface based high located over Nebraska which will be helping to bring more cold air into the area.  This setup will prove to be quite effective at lowering temperatures, especially Thursday night.  Between no cloud cover and fairly strong CAA, the currently forecasted low for Thursday night is the high teens- low 20s.  This point is by far the coldest period in the forecast, and it seems that we will recover from these low temps quite quickly, as the surface high to our northwest tracks to our northeast. 

Friday will start to see a shift in the winds as we get on the backside of the surface high, with winds starting to come out of the south.  There will be some WAA, however it is somewhat weak, only bringing us into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Cloud cover seems intermittent, with soundings indicating saturation and loss of said saturation happening at various points throughout the day.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Increasing Clouds in the Morning. Midday showers. High: 54-58

   
Wednesday Night - Cloudy with Light Rain. Low:  32-36


 
Thursday - Cloudy with rain ending in the morning. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. High: 36-40


 Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 38-42

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Discussion: 
Due to the high pressure system moving over Iowa, southerly winds are keeping our temps relatively warm. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 30's. A small disturbance will pass through Wednesday keeping temps relatively warm, and also providing a chance of showers, with highs in the mid to upper 50's. Wednesday night a cold front begins to move through causing a drop in temps from the days before and light rain, lows in the low 30's. Thursday the cold front continues to move through, rain ending in the early morning hours, with highs in the upper 30's. As the high pressure system moves through we will once again receive southerly winds, slightly warming the temps but still only topping out in the high 30's and low 40's.

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Forecasters: Lujan, Savoy, Vanderpool, Heaven, Munley, Travis
Issued:  5:00 p.m. November 5, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  
 
WPC model diagnostics favors a general model blend through 00z 11/8, with emphasis on the GEFS, ECMWF, and 12z NAM thereafter. For this forecast, we will be using the GFS and NAM to diagnose synoptic-scale patterns, with the GEFS and SREF for precipitation and temperature guidance. 




Current WPC analysis shows a large surface high centered over Iowa as of 18z today. Generally easterly flow was observed across Missouri, which will switch around to the south and southwest as the center of the high shifts east. This high was located beneath a large 250mb jet streak which ran through the northern and central plains. A mass of clouds attended this jet streak, which are currently moving into the region out of the northwest.

Tonight, the center of the aforementioned high will shift off to the east. This will allow winds to return to a more southerly direction. Warm air advection from the resulting wind shift will serve to keep temperatures in the high 30s to near 40 overnight, with increasing moisture as well. This increasing moisture comes into play tomorrow as a very small disturbance enters mid-MO from the southwest. Currently, this disturbance looks just strong enough to provide sufficient lift and moisture to generate showers by mid-day and afternoon. The resulting cloudiness and rainfall should cool temperatures slightly, therefore we have lowered Wednesday high temperatures by a couple degrees.

Things get more interesting during the Wednesday evening - Thursday morning period. A large trough at 250mb dives into the central CONUS, driving a powerful cold front south into Missouri. This front shows up especially well on isentropic analysis, with a sharp gradient in moisture, wind direction, and pressure levels noted on the 300 K theta surface. The front will provide a lifting mechanism, and with increasing moisture out ahead of it, we can expect another round of clouds and rainfall for the second half of our Wednesday night. Some models advertise the potential for mixed precipitation (sleet and snow being the dominant types), but the thermal profile just does not look supportive for anything but a very cold rain at this time. Later shifts will need to keep a close eye on this, as a change of just a few degrees will make the difference between all rain and possible frozen precipitation.

Thursday into Friday, a powerful surface high builds in behind the front. This looks to bring us our coldest temperatures thus far this season, with temperatures on Thursday likely not breaking out of the 30s. Thursday night into Friday looks frigid, with lows possibly below 20 degrees. Southerly flow at the surface kicks in on the backside of the retreating high for Friday, though warm air advection will be weak and temperatures will still likely struggle to make 40.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Increasing Clouds in the Morning. High: 56-60

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with Light Rain. Low:  32-36

 

Thursday - Cloudy with rain ending in the morning. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. High: 36-40

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Discussion: 
Today will be a sunny day with temps around average in the 50s. Tonight, winds remain calm with clear skies overnight. We will then see clouds begin to move in Wednesday morning and the possibility for rain will increase throughout the day. We expect the best chance of rain Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and moves through overnight. Thursday the clouds will start to move out of the area and we should be sunny by the afternoon.

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Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley, Steward
Issued:  10:00am: November 5, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  

Current satellite and observations show clear skies with temperatures in the mid 40s. The model preference via the WPC is a general model blend of GFS and NAM. The current synoptic feature is the dominating upperlevel convergence supporting a 1029mb high pressure at the surface over the central plains as seen on the 06Z GFS.  Subsidence associated with this feature will continue to provide clear skies through this evening into tonight with warm temperatures due unperturbed solar radiation. An upper level disturbance off the Baja Peninsula will begin to deepen and move over southwestern CONUS supporting moisture transport from the pacific through southern CONUS. Most of the energy associated with this system will remain south of the forecasted area with predominately zonal flow at the 500mb suppressing the northward ascension resulting in increasing clouds.  However, a deep trough will move over the area Wednesday night with periods of light rain from residual moisture advection from the southern system. This will cease Thursday morning as the cold front passes followed by high pressure building in to decrease cloud coverage through mid afternoon Thursday. CAA will continue through Thursday as northwesterly winds remains through the day.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Cloudy, becoming clear. Low: 34-38

 

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54

 

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Thursday - Cloudy with morning rain. Clouds clearing out later. High: 36-40

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Discussion: 
A cold front passed over Mid-Missouri today bringing cooler temperatures and cloudy skies. Those clouds will hang around the area tonight and we will have a low in the mid 30's. Tomorrow, those clouds will clear out and we will have sunny skies and highs in the lower 50's. Those clear skies will remain Tuesday night  with a low in the upper 30's and will continue into Wednesday with a high in the upper 50's. Another cold front will pass through our area again Wednesday night and into Thursday morning bringing clouds and rain and dropping our temperatures on Thursday to the upper 30's.

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Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00 pm; November 4,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  

The 12Z GFS was used for this forecast. WPC recommends general model blend. There was a cold front that passed over Mid-Missouri today bringing cloudy skies, light rain, and cooler temperatures. Today, the temperature maxed out cooler than expected due to cold air advection. Skew-T's suggest that the clouds will remain overhead tonight before clearing out tomorrow.

 Tomorrow and Wednesday, we will be under the influence of high pressure over Kansas which will be funneling northern winds towards us. The 1000-500 hPa Thickness also is indicating cold air advection over central Missouri Tuesday and Wednesday. However, this system set up will have southerly flow for tomorrow night which will bring in warm, moist air from the Gulf due to a brief period of warm air advection tomorrow night around 06Z. This will affect cloud cover Wednesday and give us our moisture for the frontal passage Wednesday night and into Thursday.

The high pressure influence will move out toward the east Wednesday night, and will be replaced by a low pressure system and cold front that will pass over Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Future forecasters should be aware of potential winter precipitation on Thursday. Soundings suggest the possibility of winter precipitation such as sleet Thursday morning, however it is too far in advance to forecast in this period.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Overcast. High: 52-56

Monday Night- Partly Cloudy, becoming clear. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

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Discussion: 
A cold front is off to our northwest, but it is relatively weak and lacks moisture. However, there is enough moisture above us for cloud cover. That will move out of Columbia tonight as high pressure sets in. This allows for overnight cooling and slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but the sun will make an appearance. The high pressure system will move to our east, allowing for southerly winds to warm us up on Wednesday.

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Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 am; November 4,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
This weekend was generally uneventful. A tight pressure gradient allowed for stronger winds; they were out of the south which funneled in moisture this morning. A cold front is just off to our northwest and will pass through Columbia within the next few hours. Although, it is a dry front (looking at station plots from those to our northwest lacking precipitation associated with this front), moisture aloft will allow for cloud cover today. We primarily used the GFS for our forecast period.

High pressure dominates Tuesday and Wednesday. Tomorrow, this pressure system will be over central Kansas bringing northerly winds to central Missouri. This combined with the cloud cover from today and clear skies tonight suggests a slightly cooler high temperature for tomorrow. Tomorrow night, we would first think that temperatures would be cooler due to it being the first clear night after FROPA, but the high pressure system will shift to our east, funneling in southerly air and soundings suggest WAA tomorrow night at 06Z. This will also increase our temperatures on Wednesday, but as the pressure system moves further to the east, we begin to lose its impacts. Moisture from the Gulf begins to set in thanks to more southerly flow. For the interest of our forecast period, this will affect cloud cover on Wednesday. Future forecasters will need to follow up with precipitation possibilities Wednesday night into Thursday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Lows: 30-34 degrees.

Saturday- Clear. High: 46-50 degrees.

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 degrees. 

Sunday -Partly cloudy. High: 52-56 degrees.

Monday- Cloudy. High: 56-60 degrees.

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Discussion: 
This weekend will be relatively inactive.  We expect clear skies for most of weekend.  We are not significantly affected by the passage of a low pressure system north of Missouri.  Temperatures are expected to increase to the end of forecaster period  due to the passage of a high pressure system to the east.

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Forecasters: Heaven,Travis, Balkissoon
Issued:  3:00 pm; November 1,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
We will be primarily using the 12Z GFS for the analysis however, we cross checked with the NAM which showed good agreement with the GFS.  The SREF will be used primarily for temperatures.

From the analysis of the 250hPa map, throughout the weekend, we are under the influence of the upper level jet.  We see regions of circulation north of Missouri in conjunction with the passage of a low pressure system over Ontario. This system is stacked N-W which indicates intensification. From the 700 hPa RH map, there are conditions conducive for cloud formation on Monday, as we note 70% RH around 9Z.  This is also in agreement when we looked at the GFS Skew-T.  We note mid to upper level clouds around 6 to 9 km up around Sunday 12Z and mid level clouds Monday 6Z.  Throughout Monday 9Z to 21Z, it is expected to be cloudy.  For the total precipitation amounts from both NAM and GFS, over the weekend, we expect traces of precip over Northern Missouri.  However, this will not be applicable for Columbia. 

 
Friday  - Clear. High: 47-51

Friday Night - Clouds build in overnight. Low: 29-33

Saturday - Clouds begin to clear by afternoon. High: 43-47 

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34

Sunday - Mostly Sunny. High: 50-54

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Discussion: 

Nicer days are in store for us this weekend with lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Today, we can expect sunny skies until late tonight which will contribute to us becoming a little warmer than we have been these past few days. Overnight tonight and into early tomorrow, clouds will build in association with a weak cold front. This cold front will keep our Saturday slightly cooler. The clouds will clear out by Saturday night leaving us with a beautiful day for the end of our weekend. Sunday will be a bit breezy, but still pleasant.

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Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10:00 am; November 1,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 


Winds out of the southwest will bring warmer air into the area giving way for warm air advection. This will give us sunny skies and warmer temperatures today. Ahead of a weak cold front, clouds will begin building overnight tonight.

A shortwave trough is responsible for this weak cold front that will pass through our area early Saturday morning. Model consensus is lacking when it comes to expecting precipitation from this system. If there is precipitation from this cold front, it will be trace amounts due to lack of available moisture. As the shortwave moves out of the area, cloud coverage will reduce. Saturday night will be mostly clear, leading to cooler temperatures.

Sunday we will have ample sunshine and warmer temperatures. An increase in low level jet activity will support warm air advection into our area. Because of this, Sunday will be the nicest day of the weekend.