Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight  - Clear. Low: 15-19.

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 38-42.

Wednesday night - Increasing cloudiness. Low: 20-24.

Thursday - Clouds decreasing through the morning. High: 42-46.

Friday -  A mix of sun and clouds. High: 46-50.

 

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Discussion:
Typical fall weather will return to Mid-Missouri providing much needed relief from our recent wild winter weather weekend. Daily maximum temperatures will be gradually increasing throughout the week. Expect temperatures in the upper 40's on both Thursday and Friday with generally sunny conditions.
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Forecaster: Rojas, Hefner, Brown, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 13, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

For this discussion, a blend of the 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF was used. After the passage of a cold front we expect drier conditions for the rest of the week, with some moisture advecting in by late Thursday. At 250mb a closed low is passing south of the area during this week, and the same flow regime is also present at 500mb and at 850mb. The possible track of the low pressure system moves from the Mid-south to the northeast. The closed low stays southeast of us during Thursday afternoon bringing enough moisture for clouds developing until Friday morning when the low system leave the area. At 700 mb the relative humidity is near 80% but with downward motion at 06Z on Thursday. The timing of this cloudiness is still up for debate between the NAM and GFS. The NAM solution brings the cloudy skies earlier.  Finally, the models show a large discrepancy in amounts of moisture on Friday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight  - Overcast. Snow will end late evening. Low: 16-20.

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 28-32.

Tuesday night - Clear. Low: 15-19.

Wednesday - Sunny with clouds increasing through the evening. High: 38-42.

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 44-48.
 

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Discussion:
Low pressure associated with a cold front that moved through the area this morning has brought snowy, overcast skies that will continue through late Monday evening. Snow will end late tonight before midnight. We should end up with snowfall totals between 1.5 - 3 inches. Once this area of low pressure moves out, high pressure moves in and will keep us sunny and clear throughout most of the week. Temperatures will remain far below normal for this time of year, but the highs do increase throughout the week.
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Forecaster: Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 12, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

We will continue to see early season snow today as the atmosphere remains saturated and temperatures remain far below average. The snow is all post-frontal; the front has already moved through the area with little pressure and temperature change. Snow potential will continue until the late evening hours when the atmosphere dries out between 0300 and 0600 UTC Tuesday. With the highest lifting happening above 500mb, much isn't expected in terms of heavy snowfall amounts. High pressure will move in Tuesday morning and keep our skies clear throughout the day. We also took a look at a blend of the 12Z NAM and GFS going into Wednesday and Thursday due to their consensus. Wednesday shows a sunny day with mid-level clouds moving in during the afternoon according to GFS soundings. These clouds will linger into Thursday morning, but look to clear out later in the day after comparing NAM and GFS forecast soundings. Later shifts should look for the potential of clouds lingering later than currently forecasted on Thursday, and effecting potential high temperatures. Temperatures continue to stay well below the climatological average. The high will move off to our southwest, keeping us in northerly flow that will reinforce the cold air. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday  - Overcast with snow falling throughout the day. High: 30-34.



Monday night - Overcast. Snow will end late evening. Low: 16-20.

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 28-32.

Tuesday night - Clear. Low: 15-19. 

 

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 38-42.
 

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Discussion:
Low pressure associated with a cold front that moved through the area this morning has brought snowy, overcast skies that will continue through late Monday evening. Snowfall should peak this afternoon between noon and 3 p.m. Snow will end late tonight before midnight. We should end up with snowfall totals between 1 and 2 inches. Once this area of low pressure moves out, high pressure moves in and will keep us sunny and clear throughout the week, although temperatures will remain far below normal for this time of year.
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Forecaster: Carlson, Scroggins and Hirsch
Issued: 9:30 a.m., November 12, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

We will continue to see early season snow today as the atmosphere remains saturated and temperatures remain far below average. The snow is all post-frontal; the front has already moved through the area with little pressure and temperature change. We expect the heaviest snow accumulation to occur between 1800 and 2100 UTC Monday when omega values are maximized between 300 and 500 mb. Snow potential will continue until the late evening hours when the atmosphere dries out between 0300 and 0600 UTC Tuesday. With the highest lifting happening above 500 mb, much isn't expected in terms of heavy snowfall amounts. Our soil temperatures at both 2 and 4 inches are still above freezing, so there will be plenty of melting to start with at the surface. Skew-T and pressure charts indicate below freezing at all levels, so no melting is expected. We are predicting snowfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, but the models show uncertainty and have been trending downwards with 1 inch being the latest model run from the SREF. The HRRR also has us seeing 1 to 2 inches. High pressure will move in Tuesday morning and keep our skies clear throughout the day Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures continuing to stay way below the climatological average. The location of the high will be off to our southwest, keeping northerly winds that will reinforce that cold air.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
Friday night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 18-22



Saturday - Sunny skies. High: 30-34


 
Saturday night - Increasing clouds. Low: 26-30


 
Sunday - Cloudy with light snow overnight. High: 38-42


 
Monday - Overcast. High: 32-36
 

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Discussion:
Unseasonably cold weather invades mid-Missouri this forecast period with temperatures bottoming out Friday night into Saturday morning. Bundle up for the football game on Saturday, as temperatures will not get above the low to mid 30s. Despite the frigid temperatures, skies should stay clear for the entirety of the game, becoming cloudy into Saturday night. Clouds will stick around for the remainder of the forecast period, and we will see our second chance for snow this season Sunday night, perhaps leading to light accumulations (less than 1"). Gee wiz!

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Forecaster: Travis, Ritter, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 9, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
It appears as though our brief period of snow will quickly transition into a period of unseasonably cold temperatures. GFS and NAM both indicate that strong cold air advection has begun and will continue throughout the overnight. GFS SKEW-Ts also show that the atmosphere will dry considerably overnight, meaning that cloud cover should exit the area overnight. With the clear skies and continued cold air advection, temperatures will bottom out to near record lows tonight. For Saturday, an area of high pressure should pass near the area, keeping our skies clear. Winds will likely shift to the southwest throughout the day, but temperatures will remain far below average.

Our next system will begin to impact mid-Missouri Saturday night. GFS shows this system ejecting out of the Desert Southwest late Saturday night, moving into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by early Monday. In its wake, we should begin to see an increase in clouds late Saturday night, with skies becoming completely overcast by Sunday morning. This will cause a smaller drop in temperatures overnight Saturday and a lesser rebound Sunday; although, with continued southwesterly flow, high temperatures on Sunday should be warmer than Saturday. By Sunday night, GFS shows divergence at 250 hPa with a 500 hPa vort max approaching the area. SKEW-Ts show a rapidly saturating column over Columbia, but lift at 700 hPa is not overly impressive. This leads us to believe that there will be a period of light snow Sunday night, with minor accumulations under one inch.

The system will exit to our east on Monday, but high level cloudiness should persist through the day. Cold air advection returns, meaning that we will be forced back into cold November weather.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday night - Cloudy, showers changing over to snow. Low: 30-34.

Friday - Morning clouds clearing out for a mostly sunny. High: 36-40.

Friday night - Skies remain clear overnight. Low: 28-32.

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 34-38.

Sunday - Clouds start to build in over the course of the day. High 42-46.

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Discussion:

Rain showers should overspread the area around sunset, bringing in snow in the late evening. Snow should end shortly after midnight, but there is a possibility of freezing drizzle continuing until sunrise. The cold front will pass by Friday morning, bringing clearing skies, windy conditions, and highs in the upper 30s. Gameday will be very cold for this time of year, with highs only in the mid 30s.  Skies overnight Saturday will remain clear into Sunday morning.  Cloud cover should build back in on Sunday with temperatures warming into the low 40s.  Monday brings another possibility of snow for the start of the work week.

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Forecaster: Doll, Sumrall, Market, Hirsch, Brown, Lupo, Hefner, Steward, Travis, Clay, and Bongard
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 8, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Winter precipitation is anticipated to occur in the KCOU area over the next few hours. Prolonged deep moisture will continue overnight, with a period of rain before the changeover (by 03Z/9).  The ground will be wet and still relatively warm which will encourage significant melting before snow can start to lay and accumulate. That being said, excessive accumulations appear unlikely.

Both NAM and GFS solutions have merit, but we have also interrogated several auxiliary sources, including the FIM, SREF, and TTU Ensemble page.  Of those portals, the TTU solution is the most aggressive with precipitation, and the FIM the least in terms of snow accumulations.  So... I'm stuck in the middle with you, and we again opt for the SREF values.  These appear to be the middle ground, with overnight accumulations of snow on the order of 1.2 inches (multiplied by 0.8 to ratio it down from the presumed 10:1 ratio for snow).  As such, accumulations of around an inch appear to be the most likely in the immediate KCOU vicinity.

Beyond this evening, unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will make temperatures feel much colder through Friday behind the passage of the cold front. Possible snow bursts can be expected behind the front Friday afternoon. A strong upper level jet persists through the weekend and will aid in the breezy conditions Friday afternoon providing wind chills in the upper 20's. Saturday will remain sunny but we will see the coldest temperatures of the season thus far with high's only expected to reach the mid 30's. On Sunday, we will experience a brief warm up before another system moves into the area.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy . Low: 28-32.

Thursday - Building clouds leading to showers by evening. High: 35-39.

 

Thursday night -  Cloudy showers changing over to snow. Low: 30-34. 

 
 
Friday- morning clouds clearing out for a partly sunny afternoon. Breezy.  High: 36-40.


   
Saturday- Mostly sunny. High: 34-38.
 

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Discussion:

This period will be marked by well-below average temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation. For tonight, cloudy conditions are to be expected with lows near freezing. Clouds will persist into the day tomorrow, limiting high temperatures from exceeding the upper 30s. Tomorrow night is where things get interesting. Rain showers should overspread the area around sunset, mixing with, then changing over to snow during by midnight. Snow should end shortly after midnight, but there is a possibility of freezing drizzle continuing until sunrise. The cold front will pass by Friday morning, bringing clearing skies, windy conditions, and highs in the upper 30s. Gameday will be very cold for this time of year, with highs only in the mid 30s.

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Forecaster: Ritter, Bongard, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 7, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Winter precipitation is anticipated to occur in the KCOU area over the next 48 hr.  GFS solutions dominate this forecast cycle with a bit of backstop from the FIM and its recent trend.  These solutions are favored over the latest NAM, which is highly aggressive in precipitation accumulation.  Prolonged deep moisture will certainly exist throughout Thursday, but with a period of rain before the changeover (by 06Z/9), the ground will be wet and encourage significant melting before snow can start to lay and accumulate.  Also, given the early season date, fairly mild temperatures on Thursday, and Sanborn Field soil temps still in the low 50s, (currently), excessive accumulations appear all the more unlikely.

As for snowfall amounts, SREF values appear to be the middle ground, with overnight accumulations of snow on the order of 1.2 inches (multiplied by 0.8 to ratio it down from the presumed 10:1 ratio for snow).  Even so, accumulations of an inch, at most, appear to be the most likely in the immediate KCOU vicinity.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will make temperatures feel much colder through Friday, but clouds will clear out in the afternoon hours. Another cold front moves through late Friday early Saturday which will be responsible for the coldest temperatures of the season so far on Saturday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low: 36-40.

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 50-54.

Wednesday night -  Cloudy. Low: 30-34. 

Thursday - Cloudy with light rain developing around sunset.  High: 40-44.

Thursday Night - Cloudy with rain changing over to snow near midnight. Snow will end by sunrise. Little to no accumulation expected. Low: 30-34.

Friday- Cloudy with gradual clearing after sunset. High: 36-40.
 

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Discussion:

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures around 50, as winds are mostly northerly. Temperatures for Thursday will reach into the 40's and drop overnight to around freezing. After some patchy light rain on Thursday evening, colder temperatures along with high relative humidity will allow us to have a chance at some snow near and after midnight, but with the opportunity will be short-lived. Little to no accumulation is expected into Friday morning.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 6, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Due to the positioning of the trough and WPC recommendations, we relied on the GFS for this forecasting period. Several embedded shortwaves troughs will be advancing across the Midwest effecting our local weather this week. These shortwaves will provide a chance of light precipitation tonight as a cold front from the north travels across Missouri. Furthermore, an additional shortwave will offer our first opportunity of snow this Fall on Thursday. Expect periods of light rainfall starting around 00Z Friday with a transition into snowfall around 06Z. The GFS supports snowfall due to decent levels of omega forcing, cold 850 mb temperatures, wet bulb temperature below freezing, and an advancing zipper moistening effect. Soil temperatures will be well above freezing, so any significant accumulation with this event is unlikely. Precipitation will stop prior to sunrise Friday morning with clearing occurring throughout the day.