Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Clouds increasing towards sunrise. Low: 14-18.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds. High: 38-42.

Wednesday Night- Mostly cloudy. Low: 30-34.

Thursday- Cloudy. High: 43-47.

Friday- Cloudy with isolated showers late. High: 43-47.
 

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Discussion:
Over the next few days we will experience a gradual increase in temperatures. Clouds should move into the area on Wednesday, and will hang around through the end of the week. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern leading to low chances for rain at the end of the week. By Friday night, rain chances return to the forecast.

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Forecasters: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 27, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Cold temperatures overnight will continue across our local area tonight due to little cloud coverage and accumulated snow leftover from Sunday's winter storm. On Wednesday upper level flow will shift to zonal across the Middle Mississippi Valley. Along with this zonal flow, low level winds will switch to a more southerly direction aiding in warmer temperatures. Expect Wednesday's max temperature to exceed well above freezing which will melt any remaining accumulated snowfall. Cloud cover for Mid-Missouri will gradually increase throughout Wednesday and cloudy conditions will persist for the remainder of the forecasting period.

For Thursday, 12UTC GFS/NAM soundings support early morning advection fog as a decently sized dry layer traps significant levels of moisture near the surface. This is further reinforced by moderate shear and a shifting wind profile present near the top of the moist layer. Upcoming forecasting periods will need to track and monitor the potential precipitation chance occurring late Friday night/Saturday morning. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Mainly clear. Low:  12-16.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 28-32.

Tuesday Night -  Clouds increasing towards sunrise. Low: 18-22.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds. High: 38-42.

Thursday- Mostly cloudy. High: 43-47.

 

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Discussion:
After dropping 1-2" of sleet and snow on the Columbia area, with gusts over 30 mph, our small, compact cyclone has scooted off to the north and east. After Monday's breezy conditions, temperatures will be very chilly tonight as the skies gradually become clear as winds are expected to lighten up. Heading into Tuesday, a high pressure system will be over our area as clear skies dominate throughout the morning towards nighttime. Winds will still be weak. Clouds will return early Wednesday morning with some clearing throughout the day. Much of our local snow will melt Tuesday into Wednesday as temperatures begin to climb due to a southerly wind. Clouds will continue to into the day Thursday.

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Forecasters: Dahaner, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:45 p.m., November 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The low pressure system that brought us snow yesterday and cooler temperatures has moved to our northeast. Tonight we could come close to KCOU record low of 11F set in 1955. From Monday 20UTC to Tuesday 06UTC wind chills are likely to be single digits. Kept temperatures for Tuesday at and below freezing due to northerly wind reinforcing the cold air. The winds switch to the south on Wednesday, leading to a more WAA regime before becoming more westerly on Thursday.

A ridge located near Idaho and the four corners move into our area providing mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. According to GFS/NAM 700RH we expect clouds to increase between 08 to 11UTC Wednesday. The clouds Wednesday and Thursday will have periods where they are more/less abundant. There is a small chance of light precipitation possible Thursday Night that future forecast shifts will need to look at.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Morning overcast will give way to a partly sunny afternoon.  High:  28-32.

Monday Night - Mainly clear. Low:  14-18.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High:  30-34.

Tuesday Night -  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low:  16-20.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds.  High: 38-42.

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
After dropping 1-2" of sleet and snow on the Columbia area, with gusts over 30 mph, our small, compact cyclone has scooted off to the north and east. In its wake, we can expect breezy conditions and temperatures that will struggle to hit the freezing mark on Monday in spite of gradually improving skies.  After a chilly Monday night, temperatures will start to rebound on Tuesday with the approach of a high pressure system, which will clear out our skies and give us much weaker winds.  Much of our local snow will melt tomorrow.  High level clouds will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday, so a faster warm up is not in the cards...


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Forecasters: Waldorf, Statler, and Market
Issued: 6:47 a.m., November 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
After reviewing the handling of the previous storm, and assessing the current situation, GFS solutions appear to have the best handle on matters over the next 48-72 hours.  Problem of the day (POD) is actually cloud cover.  This factor will dictate the amount of insolation and so the amount of snow melt and so the speed with which our temperatures are able to recover. 1-2" of snow is as pretty as it is difficult to work with, since it doesn't completely coat areas such as grass. So...more sun means faster melt, and we're back to our POD.  As such, have played it close to the usual pattern that comes after the departure of cyclones like Sunday's.  GFS MOS seems to capture this well, with a bit of help from the SREF plume as far as adjusting the ranges.    

Looking to Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more conservative approach was taken toward temperatures.  Models depict the departure of the weak anticyclone, and the formation of a large, amorphous area of low pressure to our west.  This means near-surface warm advection, but the GFS and FIM also agree on the presence of high clouds.  Tuesday night lows and Wednesday highs will likely need to be revisited, with an eye toward an upward trend. 

The MU Campus Weather Forecast will not be forecasting from 11/19-11/23 as students are on break for Thanksgiving. We will resume daily forecasts on 11/26 with the first forecast being out by 10 am.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 32-36.

Saturday - Overcast. High: 42-46.

Saturday Night - Cloudy with a patchy rain or freezing rain. Low: 28-32

Sunday -  Cloudy with light snow possible. High: 32-36

Monday - Becoming partly sunny. High: 44-48

 

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Discussion:
The active weather pattern mid-Missouri has experienced over the past 10 days is anticipated to continue through the weekend. Clouds will be increase tonight ahead of the next system, with lows in the mid-30s. Saturday will continue to be cloudy; however, no precipitation is expected during the daytime. Because of clouds, temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Saturday when compared with Friday. Precipitation, if it occurs, begins as either rain or freezing rain late Saturday night and will change over to snow by Sunday morning, ending by Sunday evening. There are a couple of key points that must be made with regards to this system: first, the precipitation will be very light; second, precipitation will likely not be continuous. We expect minor accumulations with travel only minimally impacted. Highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the mid-30s. As the system moves away from our area Monday, skies will clear and temperatures will surge into the mid- to upper-40s.


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Forecaster: Travis, Ritter, Market, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 16, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
As per WPC's recommendation a blend between the GFS and NAM was used for this forecast, mainly focusing on the GFS due to the NAM's uncertainty with precipitation for Sunday. Saturday will see cooler temperatures as cold air advection occurs late Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday's maximum temperatures will struggle to get into the mid 40s. GFS Skew-T's indicate clouds building into mid-Missouri by 0900 UTC on Saturday and persist for the duration of the weekend. These clouds will aid in keeping temperatures quite cooler than the seasonal temperatures seen on Friday. The first chance of precipitation comes Saturday night as GFS Skew-T's indicate a saturated atmosphere below H85 with some omega values. Though ice will not be introduced into the warm layer indicated by the Skew-T, surface temperatures right around freezing could result in a brief period of freezing drizzle. A light glaze could form on cars and elevated surfaces, but no significant ice accumulation. Light snow is possible throughout the day, Sunday, as both Skew-T-'s and GFS time heights indicate a well saturated atmosphere with moderate omega values Sunday morning. Expect little to no accumulations with Sanborn Field soil temperatures well above freezing. The atmosphere dries out and clouds clear out by Monday morning with slightly warmer air advecting into the region.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight  - Clear. Low: 28-32 .

Friday - Clear skies. High: 46-50.

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36.

Saturday - Clouds developing throughout the day. High: 46-50.

 

Sunday -  Cloudy with light flurries. High: 34-38.

 

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Discussion:
Tonight, skies will clear out introducing the high pressure system sticking around for the next couple of days. Friday will warm us up keeping clear and calm conditions through the duration of the day. Friday night will remain clear keeping the temps warmer into Saturday morning. Later Saturday afternoon a cold front will come through bringing developing clouds. Temperatures will drop into Sunday where clouds will stick around bringing chances of light flurries with very little impact on road conditions.   
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Forecaster: Doll, Myers, Sumrall, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 15, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
As the low pressure system to our east continues to move out of the area we experience warmer and drier conditions. Southwesterly winds aid in warm air advection that is responsible for the more mild like temperatures we will experience Thursday and Friday. A high pressure system makes its way into the area on Friday maintaining calm conditions. As we move into Friday evening there is a substantial increase in moisture throughout all levels. This will lead to cloudy skies on Saturday. A cold front will move through mid-Missouri Saturday afternoon steadily dropping temperatures as we move throughout the day. Behind this cold front we see a moistening of the atmosphere, starting in the mid-levels and slowly eroding the dry layer by around midnight on Saturday. The models are in disagreement as to whether or not we will see any precipitation from this event. GFS has us receiving light snow accumulation throughout the day Sunday, while NAM does not expect any precipitation.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight  - Cloudy, chance of snow. Low: 24-28.

Thursday - Morining clouds, clearing as day goes on. High: 38-42.

Thursday night - Clear. Low: 29-33.

Friday - Mostly Clear, clouds building overnight. High: 47-51.

 

Saturday -  Cloudy. High: 39-43.

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
With Winter Storm Avery off to our southwest we will have a chance of snow showers tonight with a trace to a half inch of accumulation possible.  With the melting that occurred during the day, the chance of refreeze overnight Wednesday night is possible so be careful on sidewalks and roadways.  After tonight more pleasant skies and warmer temperatures return to mid-Missouri for Thursday and Friday.  Friday night into Saturday clouds return.  Saturday appears to be cloudy, the high temperature for the day will be in the late morning to early afternoon with a cold front sweeping through the area during the afternoon and progressively cooling off as the day goes on.  
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Forecaster: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 13, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)


Currently we are sitting in the middle of a saddle point which means that we have relatively clear conditions here in Mid-Mo. The clouds and precipitation are pushed southeast crowding a low in the bottom right quadrant of the saddle. The northwestern portion of the state is in a deformation zone, and with the low that is located there, there is a dry line associated with it preventing us from getting the needed moisture to produce much winter-like precipitation, unlike the southeastern portion of the state is going to experience later on this evening. We may see a few flurries or light snow overnight as the low to our southeast starts to move north but we will miss the bulk of the snow thanks to the dry line over to our west that is helping guide the precipitation away from the area. By tomorrow afternoon the high that was out to our southwest starts to makes its way into Missouri and will clear us out for the rest of the week as we hop on to a warming trend, reaching our weeks highest temperature in the upper 40's on Friday. Winds out of the southwest will aid warm air advection which will be responsible for the nice warming trend we experience. Sadly this will be short lived as Saturday we will see a cold front start to move through bringing clouds and moisture that will start to build up leading to possible precipitation Saturday into Sunday. Further monitoring will need to be done to determine if this precipitation will result in snow. As of right now it looks like there will be a change over from rain to snow Saturday afternoon. This is something that will be monitored closely over the next couple of forecast periods.