Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Heavy rain with thunder possible. Low: 42-46

Saturday - Rain ending before sunrise. Clouds remain. Midday T-storms possible. Windy. High: 58-62

Saturday Night - Cloudy and Breezy. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Cloudy. High 40-44

Monday - Cloudy with a rain or snow shower possible. High: 32-36

 

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Discussion:
The active weather persists throughout this weekend into early next week. Tonight expect heavy rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible beginning around midnight. A warm front will pass through Columbia and bring up our temperatures as the night progresses. Tomorrow, expect much warmer temperatures than we have been experiencing for most of November. Do not hope for pleasant spring weather, though, as winds could exceed 30mph with clouds partially clearing. The potential for isolated midday thunderstorms lingers. Warm temperatures do not stick around past Saturday with temperatures falling back into the low 40s Sunday, and continuing to drop into Monday. 

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Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Active weather is again expected to impact mid-Missouri this weekend; however, unlike several previous instances this month, this iteration is expected to manifest itself mainly in the form of rain. 250-hPa jet streak coupling is expected to occur this evening, enhancing divergence aloft. At 700 hPa, upward vertical motion more than sufficient to support rainfall will also occur this evening. Additionally, 850-hPa winds will be out of the southwest at 35-45 kts, which will help transport plenty of moisture toward the area. All of these factors point to a rainy evening for Columbia. Also, it should be noted that between midnight and sunrise, K-Index vales will be greater than 30, Lifted Index values will be less than 0, there will be positive CAPE present, and temperatures will be nearly equal to convective temperatures. This hints at the possibility for a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain during this time frame. As one final note, PWATs are expected to be around 1.2 inches, and while these values to don't hint at a widespread heavy rainfall event, they do suggest the brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible. Rain is expected to clear shortly before sunrise, but clouds should rain throughout the day. 850-hPa winds will still be in the 35-45 kt range, but these winds will be able to more sufficiently mix to the surface, leading to a breezy day Saturday. SPC places Columbia on the fringe of a marginal risk Saturday, so it seems appropriate to mention the chance of a thunderstorm or two, mainly around midday. The most significant threat for thunderstorms, including some severe, will reside to our east. 

Flow transitions from southwesterly to northwesterly Saturday night, reacquainting our area will the below normal temperatures we have grown accustomed to. Cloudy skies will persist throughout the remainder of the period. One final note of interest is that as a minor disturbance pushes through the area on Monday, there is the possibility of a couple rain or snow showers during the day.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 33-37.

Friday - Patchy morning fog with clouds throughout the day. High: 46-50.

Friday Night- Cloudy. Heavy rain beginning later in the night. Low: 33-37.

Saturday- Rain continuing through early afternoon. Staying cloudy through the day. High: 58-62.

Sunday- Cloudy. High: 42-46.

 

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Discussion:
Clouds will continue to remain overnight keeping the temperatures warm. Friday morning brings a chance of patchy fog to watch for on your morning commute. The clouds will stick around the rest of the day as steady heavy rain will roll in late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. Temps will rise back up later in the day. Saturday night, colder winds will make their way back producing colder temps and cloudy conditions Sunday.
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Forecasters: Myers, Doll, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Overnight we will continue to see cloud cover and warmer temperatures from the recent warm front passing through. With the snow melting and evaporating into the lower part of the atmosphere, patches of fog early Friday morning are likely especially with the warm air temps aloft. An active low pressure system coming through Missouri all the way from California will be seen late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. This system has been active along the coasts producing heavy rain and possibility of severe conditions so we anticipate the system will keep strength and bring heavy rain. After the rain moves out, the jet stream will bring northernly cold air dropping temps for us and moving the low pressure system to the north. Clouds will remain throughout Sunday with windy conditions and cold westernly winds.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Low: 30-34.

Thursday - Cloudy. High: 46-50.

Thursday Night- Cloudy. Low: 33-37.

Friday- Mostly cloudy with showers starting in evening. High: 48-52.

Saturday- Rain in morning then partly sunny. High's near 50.

 

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Discussion:
We started our climb in temperature today and while we remained cloudy, we had a chance to melt away some of that residual snow. We will continue to warm throughout the rest of the work week and into Saturday but remain cloudy all the while. Before we peak in our warming trend we will have a warm front come through on Friday. This warm front will bring with it some precipitation in the form of rain, we should not see any freezing precip as of right now. Showers are expected to start on Friday night around 10pm and continue into Saturday morning. We should be dry by Saturday afternoon but once all of the rain is said and done we should have picked up around half an inch of precipitation. Our temperatures should peak on Saturday as well and we will start a cooling trend into the start of the next week.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 28, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The jet stream is going to be more zonal for the next few days.  Temperatures will be trending upward with a warm front that passed through early this afternoon.  The higher temperatures along with warm air advection will continue to melt the remaining snow.  Clouds will continue to persist throughout the forecast period due to the warm air advection as well as ample amounts of moisture throughout all levels.  Friday night into Saturday is what we are keeping an eye on. A strong low approaching from our west will bring the next chance of rain with PWAT values jumping from 0.79in to 1.15in. Strong values of shear and instability will provide favorable conditions for thunderstorms, but these should stay to the south of mid-Missouri. The chance for rain begins around 9-10pm Friday night and end around noon on Saturday as the low passes off to our north in southern Iowa. After the low passes on Saturday we will be clearing out behind the system and warming up again to above average temperatures. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Clouds increasing towards sunrise. Low: 14-18.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds. High: 38-42.

Wednesday Night- Mostly cloudy. Low: 30-34.

Thursday- Cloudy. High: 43-47.

Friday- Cloudy with isolated showers late. High: 43-47.
 

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Discussion:
Over the next few days we will experience a gradual increase in temperatures. Clouds should move into the area on Wednesday, and will hang around through the end of the week. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern leading to low chances for rain at the end of the week. By Friday night, rain chances return to the forecast.

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Forecasters: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 27, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Cold temperatures overnight will continue across our local area tonight due to little cloud coverage and accumulated snow leftover from Sunday's winter storm. On Wednesday upper level flow will shift to zonal across the Middle Mississippi Valley. Along with this zonal flow, low level winds will switch to a more southerly direction aiding in warmer temperatures. Expect Wednesday's max temperature to exceed well above freezing which will melt any remaining accumulated snowfall. Cloud cover for Mid-Missouri will gradually increase throughout Wednesday and cloudy conditions will persist for the remainder of the forecasting period.

For Thursday, 12UTC GFS/NAM soundings support early morning advection fog as a decently sized dry layer traps significant levels of moisture near the surface. This is further reinforced by moderate shear and a shifting wind profile present near the top of the moist layer. Upcoming forecasting periods will need to track and monitor the potential precipitation chance occurring late Friday night/Saturday morning. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Mainly clear. Low:  12-16.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 28-32.

Tuesday Night -  Clouds increasing towards sunrise. Low: 18-22.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds. High: 38-42.

Thursday- Mostly cloudy. High: 43-47.

 

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Discussion:
After dropping 1-2" of sleet and snow on the Columbia area, with gusts over 30 mph, our small, compact cyclone has scooted off to the north and east. After Monday's breezy conditions, temperatures will be very chilly tonight as the skies gradually become clear as winds are expected to lighten up. Heading into Tuesday, a high pressure system will be over our area as clear skies dominate throughout the morning towards nighttime. Winds will still be weak. Clouds will return early Wednesday morning with some clearing throughout the day. Much of our local snow will melt Tuesday into Wednesday as temperatures begin to climb due to a southerly wind. Clouds will continue to into the day Thursday.

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Forecasters: Dahaner, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:45 p.m., November 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The low pressure system that brought us snow yesterday and cooler temperatures has moved to our northeast. Tonight we could come close to KCOU record low of 11F set in 1955. From Monday 20UTC to Tuesday 06UTC wind chills are likely to be single digits. Kept temperatures for Tuesday at and below freezing due to northerly wind reinforcing the cold air. The winds switch to the south on Wednesday, leading to a more WAA regime before becoming more westerly on Thursday.

A ridge located near Idaho and the four corners move into our area providing mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. According to GFS/NAM 700RH we expect clouds to increase between 08 to 11UTC Wednesday. The clouds Wednesday and Thursday will have periods where they are more/less abundant. There is a small chance of light precipitation possible Thursday Night that future forecast shifts will need to look at.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Morning overcast will give way to a partly sunny afternoon.  High:  28-32.

Monday Night - Mainly clear. Low:  14-18.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High:  30-34.

Tuesday Night -  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low:  16-20.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds.  High: 38-42.

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
After dropping 1-2" of sleet and snow on the Columbia area, with gusts over 30 mph, our small, compact cyclone has scooted off to the north and east. In its wake, we can expect breezy conditions and temperatures that will struggle to hit the freezing mark on Monday in spite of gradually improving skies.  After a chilly Monday night, temperatures will start to rebound on Tuesday with the approach of a high pressure system, which will clear out our skies and give us much weaker winds.  Much of our local snow will melt tomorrow.  High level clouds will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday, so a faster warm up is not in the cards...


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Forecasters: Waldorf, Statler, and Market
Issued: 6:47 a.m., November 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
After reviewing the handling of the previous storm, and assessing the current situation, GFS solutions appear to have the best handle on matters over the next 48-72 hours.  Problem of the day (POD) is actually cloud cover.  This factor will dictate the amount of insolation and so the amount of snow melt and so the speed with which our temperatures are able to recover. 1-2" of snow is as pretty as it is difficult to work with, since it doesn't completely coat areas such as grass. So...more sun means faster melt, and we're back to our POD.  As such, have played it close to the usual pattern that comes after the departure of cyclones like Sunday's.  GFS MOS seems to capture this well, with a bit of help from the SREF plume as far as adjusting the ranges.    

Looking to Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more conservative approach was taken toward temperatures.  Models depict the departure of the weak anticyclone, and the formation of a large, amorphous area of low pressure to our west.  This means near-surface warm advection, but the GFS and FIM also agree on the presence of high clouds.  Tuesday night lows and Wednesday highs will likely need to be revisited, with an eye toward an upward trend. 

The MU Campus Weather Forecast will not be forecasting from 11/19-11/23 as students are on break for Thanksgiving. We will resume daily forecasts on 11/26 with the first forecast being out by 10 am.