Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 41-45

  Saturday - Overcast. Showers. High: 49-53

Saturday Night - Overcast. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Partly Cloudy. High: 61-65



 
Monday - Overcast. High: 52-56
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
This upcoming weekend we expect overcast skies. Showers are expected Saturday afternoon due to the passage of a low pressure system. Temperature will drop into Saturday night as this system passes through. We expect Sunday to warm up before temperature begin dropping again on Monday due to another incoming low pressure system.

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Taylor, Heaven, Travis
Issued:  5:00pm; October 25,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

Friday night we remain under the influence an upper level jet. This jet will begin pushing out of the area as a low pressure system approaches from the south-west.  We come under the influence of another jet streak associated with a long wave approaching from north-west into Missouri around Sunday 15Z to Monday 21Z.  

From the GFS 500-hPa height and absolute vorticity map, associated with the low pressure system on Saturday, we see regions of increasing circulation as expected with the counter-clockwise curvature in wind flow and the S-N movement of air which makes the effects from CO force increase (since Absolute Vorticity = Shear + Curvature + CO force).  

Looking at a map of GFS 700-hPa heights RH and omega, high percentages of RH starts increasing from 9Z on Saturday and reaches its maximum around 18Z.  We expect rainfall during this time because there is also upward vertical motion of 12 microbars per second.   Also, from the 1000-500 hPa thickness, as expected with the associated low pressure systems, there were steeper thickness gradients.  

  Friday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 50 -54

 

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low:38-42

  Saturday - Overcast. Showers. High: 48-52

Saturday Night - Cloudy. Low: 36-40

Sunday - Overcast. High: 47-51

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Clouds are going to continue lingering in the area throughout most of the weekend. Friday will be dry, however rain will return Saturday afternoon. Moderate showers will occur throughout the afternoon into the evening. By Sunday morning, rain will exit the area, but clouds will remain. Temperatures will be cooler than average for this time of the year.

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10:00 am ; October 25,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

On Friday, things remain relatively stable due a surface level high pressure system. The high pressure system is not strong enough to clear out clouds, but it will keep us dry throughout the day on Friday. This surface high stays in place until it is pushed out by a strong low pressure system on Saturday around 12Z. This low pressure system will be moving in from the southwest and pushing the upper level jet max that brought breezy conditions out of the area.

The low pressure system will have cloud cover ahead of it, and moderate showers are to be expected starting around 17Z lasting until 3Z on Sunday. Vorticity begins increasing around 9Z on Saturday, and becomes increasingly stronger around 15-18Z. We are seeing divergence around 6Z on Saturday through 0Z on Sunday. This will lead to the heavier precipitation that we are expecting. There is minimal CAPE and CIN. At this time thunderstorms are not expected. 

Clouds linger through Sunday, but Sunday remains dry.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  

  

Thursday Night - Overcast with rain. High: 40-44  

Friday - Overcast with rain. High: 50-54

Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 40-44

Saturday - Cloudy with rain. High: 55-58

Sunday - Sunny than cloud cover in the evening. High: 60-64

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Rain will move into the region over the evening hours due to a run off precipitation from a cold front to the south-southwest of the region. With this there will be temperatures in the mid 50's. Whilst there will be a bit of a break from the rain Friday evening, rain will begin again after the main front moves over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. With the front rain will contiune into late Saturday evening / early Sunday morning. There will be some sun on Sunday, however a second cold front will move over the region late Sunday evening, bringing more clouds. 

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 24,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Currently, there is a front to the SSW of the region which is causing moisture to move over the area bringing in rain for Thursday night into Friday morning.

The main issue comes down to precip on Saturday. Currently, the HREF and SREF are showing that the PFJ is going to be breaking from the current long wave pattern and semi-isolating the low in north central Texas. While all the models are in agreement on this they do differ on what upper level dynamics will cause the low to move out of the southern Plains and into the region Saturday. The HREF and SREF are showing that there will be a small finger of the jet that is wrapped around the Texas low helping to kick this out and move this system to the east of the region by Saturday night. The NAM, however, is wanting to keep the low over Texas-Oklahoma slightly longer and move the front directly over the region due to a weaker jet feature. Regardless of where the front will move, there will be moisture and rain over the region. However, with the HREF/SREF there will be a max of 1.0 inch and for the NAM it will be 1.3-1.5 inch range.

The models are currently having the effects of the front moving downstream of central Missouri, over late Saturday evening / early Sunday morning. This will be in time for a second front to move over the region from the west-northwest late Sunday and provide additional rain on Monday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  

  

 

Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 43-47   

 

 

 

Thursday - Overcast with rain. High: 46-50

 

 

 

Thursday Night - Overcast with rain. Low: 38-42

 

Friday - Cloudy. High: 50-54

 

 

 

Saturday - Cloudy with rain. High: 51-55

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies are expected with a low temperature in the mid 40s. A cold front is expected to pass over Columbia late Wednesday into early Thursday.  Tomorrow, overcast skies with rain will bring a cooler high temperature in the upper 50s. This rain will be behind the cold front which passed early in the morning.  Thursday night, it will also be overcast with rain, and the low will be in the lower 40s and upper 30s. Friday, skies will remain cloudy and the high temperature will reach the lower 50s. Cloudiness will continue into Saturday, and rain will resume as well. Rain will be located on the northwest corner of a low passing from the south to the east.  The high will be in the low to mid 50s.

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Abruzzo, Heaven
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 23,  2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC is preferring general model blend, so we used the GFS model and SREF plumes for temperature forecasting.

Temperatures were quite high this afternoon, mainly due to strong WAA and minimal cloud cover. Tonight, cold frontal passage will begin at approximately midnight, setting the area up for rain to begin early Thursday. The rain will be behind the cold front, as shown by model soundings. The soundings show saturation throughout most of the column. Cloudiness and weak CAA will bring the high temperature down 20 degrees. Rain is expected to continue through Thursday night into early Friday morning. Friday, a surface low will move over Louisiana. This surface low will be stacked to the northwest, indicating rapid intensification over the next couple days. Meanwhile, cloudy skies have the possibility to clear Friday afternoon, as model soundings are showing an opening between dew point and temperature. If skies do clear, high temperatures will rise beyond what is forecast. However, the confidence in this situation occurring is low, as moisture in the soundings is high for periods before and after. Saturday, the surface low will move towards the Louisiana-Arkansas border while continuing to be stacked to the northwest. Its influence will begin for the area as well. Given the position of the low, we are expected to be on the north side, indicating that we are in the head of the comma. Soundings indicate that rain is likely Saturday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  

Wednesday - Partly Sunny. High: 64-68   

 

Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45   

Thursday - Overcast with rain. High: 46-50

 Thursday Night - Overcast with rain. Low: 38-42

Friday - Overcast with showers in the morning. High: 50-54

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Wednesday will be partly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's. Cloud cover will be increasing in the night hours with lows in the lower 40's. Late Wednesday night will see the passage of a cold front, decreasing temperatures for the remainder of the forecast.  Thursday will be overcast with rain and highs in the upper 50's. The overcast sky and rain will continue into the night hours with lows in the upper 30's and lower 40's. Friday will be overcast with showers in the early morning with highs in the lower 50's.

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Heaven, Savoy
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 23,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current WPC Model discussion, the preferred models are the EUCWF and UKMET, along with the GFS.  As such, this forecast was made primarily using the 06Z GFS,06Z GEFS, and 03Z SREF.

Wednesday morning visible satellite shows altocumulus over Columbia.  Temperatures are already at 50, and are expected to climb into the mid 60s during the day, due to strong WAA into Missouri.  06Z GFS soundings indicate cloud cover increasing through the day, with saturation at multiple levels through the column.  Clouds Wednesday night are expected to be fairly high up, with saturation around 300-500mb.  A cold front is expected to move through Columbia late Wednesday night, around midnight.  This cold front is not expected to have any precipitation ahead of the front, but behind it.  Precipitation is expected to start Thursday morning, and last through the day.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to be rather low.  Rainfall is expected most of the day, along with cloud cover, keeping out any insolation.  Thursday night will see the continuation of rainfall, along with rather cool temperatures.  Friday will see the end of the rainfall for Columbia, with rain expected to end around noon.  Clouds are expected to remain over Columbia. 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  

Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy. Low: 39-43

 

Wednesday - Partly Sunny. High: 64-68

 
 Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45

 

Thursday - Overcast. Showers Possible. High: 46-50



Friday - Clouds Early, Clearing Out Afternoon. High: 52-56

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Dry conditions are in the forecast for the next 24 hours. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies to transition to partly cloudy as the night wears on. Lows should bottom out in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Tomorrow, south winds will help to warm things up again, with mid to upper 60s likely under partly sunny skies. Tomorrow night into Thursday, our next weather disturbance will arrive. A cold front will drop temperatures Thursday morning into the low 40s, with overcast skies and rain showers keeping highs for Thursday likely remaining below 50. Friday, we should see clouds and rain move out, with sunny skies and chilly conditions by the afternoon. 

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 22,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC model diagnostics indicates a preference for general model blend, with above-average confidence. We will be using the 12z GFS for the majority of this forecast, with consideration also being given to the 12z/18z NAM 12km and the SREF.

Overall, it's a pretty active setup over the CONUS. A powerful, well-occluded surface low was situated over Lake Superior at 18z. This low was located within a very large 500mb trough that extended into the central CONUS. A 500mb jet max was noted over eastern Indiana and NW Ohio in association with that trough, helping to support an east-moving cold front running roughly along the eastern foothills of the Appalachian Mountains.This trough and accompanying surface low will continue to swing eastward with time, setting the stage for a fairly uneventful night in mid-Missouri.

Tomorrow, WAA returns, with GFS model-generated soundings indicating the majority of this WAA in the sfc-700mb layer. Thus, although we will warm up quite a bit tomorrow (mid to upper 60s, with some places possibly seeing 70), the warm-up will not be too spectacular. Also, both GFS and NAM indicate moisture present near the 850mb level, which should help to create some clouds throughout the day.

Wednesday night, another longwave trough swings into the Midwest, driving a powerful cold front down through Missouri. Temperatures with the fropa will drop as low-level CAA kicks in on its backside, thus lows Thursday morning will bottom out in the lower to middle 40s. The sfc front continues south through the day Thursday, but moisture advection at the 700mb layer and above will really help to saturate the atmosphere. This keeps Mid-Missouri in solid overcast throughout the day. Thursday night into Friday, a disturbance (as evidenced by 500mb and 700mb vorticity) reaches the base of the trough over mid and southern MO and provides lift to the saturated atmosphere. This gives us a good chance for some cold rain throughout the overnight hours. Clouds and rain for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night will keep temperatures down, with highs Thursday likely not breaking out of the 40s.

For Friday, upper-level winds finally switch around to the NW as the 700mb and 500mb trough axes progress east. This leads to a rapid scouring out of moisture by mid-day, ending the rain and overcast skies. Interesting to note here is that the NAM and GFS disagree on timing, with GFS pushing moisture out by late morning and the NAM keeping it through evening. If the NAM is correct, Friday will be much cooler and cloudier. However, GFS solution appears more likely for now, so sunny skies will likely prevail Friday afternoon, with light N winds.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

  

Tuesday - Sunny Skies. High: 55-59

Tuesday Night -  Mostly Clear. Low: 43-47

 

Wednesday - AM Sun/Increasing PM Clouds. High: 64-68

 

Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 41-45

 

Thursday - Possible Showers. High: 46-50

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Today will remain sunny with breezy conditions and temperatures below seasonal average. Skies will remain clear overnight as a warm front will make its way into the area which will shift our winds out of the SW. Those SW winds will warm out temperatures to more seasonal levels. Clouds will begin to make their way into the area Wednesday night as a cold front will shift our winds out of the NW. There is a possibility of rain on Thursday once the cold front passes and temperatures will drop to well below seasonal averages.

================================================================================================
Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Farr
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 22,  2019


Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current model guidance a general model blend has been used to make this forecast.  Current temps are in the mid 40s for Mid-Missouri. The skies are clear and the air is fairly dry.

Today dry condition will continue and so will the breeze.  The forecast area is still under the influence of a 40kt low level jet due associated with a strong low pressure system still to our northeast,  With the LLJ still at about 40-50kts at times today, winds at the surface will be around 15-20mph sustained gusting to 30mph at times. Winds do begin to die down as the sun begins to set tonight. Cloud conver is expected tomorrow in the form of a mid-level clouds according to GFS and NAM forecast soundings as a we expect to be under the warm sector.  Temperatures warm fairly quickly as WAA is introduced from the warm front off to the north  Wednesday night into Thursday a cold front is expected to move through the forecast area. Models are in disagreement on how far south the cold front does go and how fast it moves through the area as well,  NAM is about three hours faster than the GFS so timing is an issue, currently anticipating FROPA to be around midnight Thursday.  As the cold front passes there will be some precipitation ahead of the front but post front rain is expected with a potential upper level disturbance moving along the gradient of the cold front.  NAM and GFS do differ of the strength of the upper level disturbance so depending on how strong this disturbance is will depend on how much rain does fall during the day Thursday.