Monday, March 2, 2020

Monday - Increasing clouds. High: 50-54
Monday Night - Partly cloudy, becoming clear by morning. Low: 34-38

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64

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Overnight, rain stayed to the south and east of Columbia as a weak cold front passed behind it. Clouds associated with this boundary will stick around for most of the day Monday. Winds are currently light from the north and slowly will shift to the east into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, high pressure sets in behind the cold front contributing to clear skies for the next couple of days. Some high clouds are possible, but the mostly sunny skies will contribute to spring-like high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: March 2, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

For this forecast period, we compared the 06Z GFS to the 06Z NAM. Both were fairly similar for this calm and spring-like first week of March. Cold FROPA in Columbia occurred around 09Z this morning. This is currently causing backing winds and contributing to CAA. Winds have shifted from southerly to northerly, allowing for a decrease in the high temperature for this afternoon. A shortwave will move across the Midwest this afternoon, but thanks to mostly zonal flow in all of the troposphere and high pressure mitigating precipitation, the shortwave should only result in cloud cover for the rest of Monday.

High pressure dominates the rest of the forecast period. Mostly zonal flow will be present from the ground up, as well. We stay near the left entrance region of the jet stream which is indicative of convergence aloft, suggesting divergence at the surface. Sinking air prevents moisture from lifting and condensing, which will help skies stay clear. Winds will shift easterly as we progress into Tuesday and Wednesday. Southerly winds won't dominate until the end of the forecast period where we start to see even warmer high temperatures. Future forecasters will need to see how those winds will affect moisture advection for the latter part of the week.

1 comment:

  1. Please forecast more sunny skies! I can't get enough of this weather!