Wednesday, March 4, 2020


Wednesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 36-40 
Thursday - Sunny. High: 56-60
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 28-32
Friday - Sunny. High: 50-54
Saturday - Sunny. High: 62-66

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As a cold front pushed through today, our temperatures were a little bit cooler than yesterday. Going into tonight through Thursday, we will be under the influence of high pressure bringing warmer weather and sunny skies. Southerly winds in the morning will also bring temperatures up a bit. Throughout the day, winds will shift to the north as a cold front will pass through late Thursday evening and night. Luckily there is practically no moisture during the entire system so there is little to no concern for clouds--let alone precipitation--for the entire forecast period. Northerly winds will will persist until late Friday evening when they become southerly again, bringing significant warming on Saturday.
Forecasters: Lieberman, Pauley, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: March 4, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A blend of the NAM and GFS was supplemented with SREF plumes. The WPC recommends a general model blend for everything besides a surface low located to the east (downstream of Missouri).

Currently, at 250MB, the subtropical and polar jets are coupled putting us in the left exit and right entrance region, respectively. The result of this is that there is significant divergence aloft. At 500MB, a shortwave trough is located to our northeast and is the cause for today's temperatures being cooler than expected. Besides that, flow is zonal. At 700MB, a kink associated with the shortwave is located in eastern Missouri but flow is zonal otherwise. At 850MB, flow remains zonal. Moreover, RH at all levels is relatively low and insufficient for precipitation. At the surface, a cold front has just pushed through to the southeast of central Missouri. Skies are mostly clear and temperatures are in the low-50s.

Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with cirrus clouds at 300-250MB. Winds will transition from northerly to a veering pattern tonight into tomorow morning, indicative of WAA. However, winds tomorrow will become westerly and speed up, particularly above the surface. If this is mixed into the lower levels, the combination of high wind speeds and extremely dry air provide the possiblility for concerns about fires. Skew-T analysis shows dew point depressions as high as 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
The center of a low pressure system will be traveling over the US-Canada border and will reach the Great Lakes Thursday around 12Z. A second cold front associated with the system will start to pass over mid-Missouri into Thursday evening.

Thursday night around midnight, this secondary cold front will bring northerly winds and cooling temperatures. The center of an upper-level trough axis will pass over central Missouri on Friday at 00z. With this trough there is significant circulation, but with lack of moisture and uplift, precipitation is of little concern. Solendoids indicating CAA are located over the greater Missouri area and temperatures will drop into the low thirties. Friday winds will be from the north for the majority of the day; this is because the trough axis will be downstream. These winds will help push cold air into central Missouri and become the main cause for temperatures only warming up into the low-50s.

Early Saturday morning, as a high pressure system located in the south-central US pushes eastward to the southeastern US, winds will shift to the southwest. This results in veering winds, solenoids, and WAA. These, along with sunny skies, will bring significant warming throughout the day on Saturday.

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