Monday, March 2, 2020


Monday Night - Partly cloudy, clearing by morning. Low: 34-38

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42 

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64

Thursday - Partly cloudy. High: 54-56

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The clouds from the back end of the weak cold front will move out by Tuesday morning. As these clouds move out along with the passed cold front, a high pressure system will settle in for the remainder of the week bringing along high temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's. With little clouds this should help to get temperature up a little warmer.
Forecasters: Owens, Savoy, Ritter
Issued:  3:00pm: March 2, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
With the overall period being quiet, the primary forecast threat is going to be turbulence. With FROPA this morning, and the next low pressure forming over S. California, the overall pattern suggest a quiet few days. Even in the event this low moves out of S. California, with the jet staying to our south and the overall pattern reflection the jet, this system will stay to the south of Missouri.

With RAP, GFS, and NAM verifying within acceptable limits, the choice of forecast products are quite numerous, as expected with high pressure dominating the central CONUS. For Turbulence this is a bit more limiting, however the AWC's GTG turbulence product is a fairly decent product for this. It should also be noted that this product has been set for CAT II aircraft, per standard. The bulk of turb expect thorough the forecast period is primarily LGT OCNL MDT, caused by diurnal heating. Unfortunately verifying this is slightly difficult as PRIEPS have not been reported to confirm or deny this, as is normal.

For the forecast period, there is continual dry air advection, and wind will be primarily from the west. With this and predominantly clear skies, temperatures will be unseasonably warm throughout the forecast period. With max temps reaching into the mid 60's. The low temperatures will continue to follow standard diurnal patterns with min hitting upper 30's to low 40's. This will also help with clear air turbulence as most fields are fallow given the growing season.

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