Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Tuesday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 64-68

Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 46-50

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 64-68

Friday - Cloudy, Possible Rain. High: 62-66

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The sunny skies that dominated the afternoon will continue into the evening and overnight which will gives us clear skies. The first half of tomorrow looks to be much of the same. Tomorrow night there will be an increase in cloud cover. This will continue into Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for rainfall overnight into Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal for the rest of today with a slight warm up expected for tomorrow and Thursday and a slight cool off back to average for Friday.


Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00PM: March 31,2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Model preference for this forecast is a non-NAM blend. GFS was used for this forecast due to it matching best with current observations. SREF plumes were used for temperatures. 

The main focus for this forecast period is the slight warm up for the middle of the week and the last week rain potential.

250mb winds shows the area currently in a zonal pattern throughout the rest of the day. Starting tomorrow, there will be a weak ridging pattern that occurs mid to late morning. This will be the driver for a slight warm up for the midweek. Mid-level and low-level winds also show a weak ridging pattern developing for mid to late morning for tomorrow. The low level ridging is key because that is the main driver for bringing in the southerly winds ushering in WAA. This ridging pattern will warm temperatures up to the upper 60's for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Cloud cover looks to return for late tomorrow evening, along with that, the 500mb vorticity indicates some mid level circulation. 700mb RH and UVM values will also increase during this same time. The main ingredient is the 850mb low level winds. They also will be increasing during this time which will be the driver for the low lever moisture transport. Right now it is too far out to tell how much rain will fall or if any thunderstorms come out of it. Refer to later shifts for more details on this. 

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