Monday, March 9, 2020

Monday - Overcast. Rain likely until early afternoon. Thunderstorms possible just before sunset. Breezy at times. High: 56-60
Monday Night - Overcast. Rain with possibly a thunderstorm until midnight. Low: 34-38 
Tuesday- Partly sunny. High: 52-56
Tuesday Night - Clouds increase. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 42-46

Wednesday - Partly sunny. Rain possible in the early morning, dry by afternoon. High: 62-66

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After a warm and sunny weekend, Columbia is expecting a fairly active week, as a high pressure system moves away from us. Rain began around 2am this morning and should persist into the early afternoon. At some point, there is a possibility for some thunder to be heard from these storms. However, severe weather is not expected at this time as instability should not be supported. Winds will be a tad strong at times due to a tight pressure gradient across the state. Clouds begin to decrease overnight and into tomorrow. A cold front will pass through later today bringing cooler temperatures into tomorrow. A warm up is expected for Wednesday as winds will shift out of the south yet again.
Forecasters: Clemons
Issued:  10:00am: March 9, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used in this forecast as suggested by the WPC. Rain began last night around 07Z and is continuing as we speak. At this time, Sanborn Field on Mizzou's campus has already recorded 0.5" of rain. Rain is expected to persist through the majority of the day. All models suggest saturation from the ground to the upper troposphere until around 20Z. The RAP predicts MUCAPE will be 796 J/kg with -1 J/kg of CIN around 00Z, with the HRRR in agreement. NAM has MUCAPE at 149 J/kg and -9 J/kg for CIN, and the GFS is in agreement. SREF and GEFS plumes have the highest outlier for MUCAPE around 200 J/kg (not very impressive). With CAPE set aside, the system may be moisture starved after winds shift out of the north after cold FROPA. Vorticity and lift exist through this time period, but all of the ingredients for convection may not be in the same place at the same time. Future forecasters will need to monitor this system through the day, specifically watching the dew point temperature, and if it can meet or exceed 55 degrees Fahrenheit. Around an inch of rain is expected from this system.

Rain will end by 06Z tonight and clouds decrease through Tuesday. Winds have the potential to gust up to 35mph today and tonight due to the tight pressure gradient across the central CONUS, as we watch a high pressure system centered at 1037mb move further to our east. A low pressure system centered around 1008mb associated with the cold front follows right behind it. Winds after cold FROPA will back due to CAA, so a cooler high temperature is expected for tomorrow. Northerly winds will funnel in air from the continental polar air mass, which has little moisture, allowing for more sunshine tomorrow. Zonal flow is expected to take over the central CONUS for the rest of the forecast period. A shortwave has the potential to bring us more rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but PoP is around 20-30%. This shortwave will allow for more cloud cover Tuesday night, allowing for warmer temperatures overnight. Winds begin to veer after WAA during this time, allowing for a considerable warm up on Wednesday.

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