Monday, March 16, 2020

Monday - Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning, dry by the afternoon. High: 44-48

Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Cloudy. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Cloudy. Rain likely all day. High: 64-68

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We’re shaping up for a gloomy start to the week in Columbia. As of when this forecast was issued, almost 0.2” of rain has fallen on Mizzou’s campus. This will be spotty through the rest of the morning, and completely end by noon today. Tuesday looks dry, but still cloudy through the day. Temperatures should warm a bit into tomorrow as winds begin to shift out of the south. However, southerly winds will also funnel in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico allowing for another rain chance overnight on Tuesday and sticking with us through Wednesday. Those winds will also allow for temperatures to soar into the upper 60s on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: March 16, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main focus for today’s forecast will be the upcoming precipitation event on Wednesday. For this forecast we used the NAM, GFS, GEFS, SREF, and the HRRR as guided by a general model blend by the WPC. 

As of right now, rain is very spotty in Columbia with a total of 0.16” recorded at Sanborn field. Most models agree that rain will dwindle off by the early afternoon as omega values diminish. However, we remain saturated from the surface to about 650mb so low level clouds will persist through the rest of the day. With light rain ending around 18Z, we expect total precip values to be around 0.25”.
Tomorrow, we are situated in the right entrance region of the polar jet at 250mb. This would suggest divergence aloft and convergence at the surface. Soundings show that Columbia will be saturated close to the surface indicating more low level clouds through Tuesday. Easterly winds begin to shift out of the south as a cyclone begins to develop in the desert southwest. This wind shift will help warm things up both Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Wednesday is when things really start to pick up. At 850mb, a strong low level jet aides warm air advection and upglide. This also supplies tons of moisture from the gulf. All these ingredients aid us to forecast a significant rain event all day Wednesday. CAPE values from the GEFS range in the mid 600s in J/kg while the SREF shows much higher CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Models don’t agree as much when it comes to the amount of WAA we will receive, as high temps vary from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Nevertheless, dew point temperatures stay above 55°F suggesting that convection can be supported. Future forecasters should monitor this event closely as models tend to be in disagreement at this time.

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