Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 58-62

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 36-40

 Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High: 56-60

Friday - Sunny. High: 50-54

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High pressure and clear skies have dominated the weather pattern today. This will continue tonight through tomorrow. Tomorrow night there will be the potential to see some partly cloudy skies, but nothing will come out if it. Thursday and Friday also look to be clear with a weak cold front passing through Thursday night dropping the high temperatures somewhat for Friday, but not a significant drop off.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: March 3, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
UKMET/ECMWF/GFS guidance was preferred via the WPC, and GFS was used for this forecast period due to the GFS comparing closest to the current observations. SREF Plumes were used for temperatures.

Current set up has the Columbia area just north of the 250mb jet streak. This is the driver for the clear skies and calm weather conditions that are being experienced. These calm conditions are also due to the flow being zonal throughout the central CONUS. This calm pattern with clear skies will continue all the way throughout this forecast period with seasonal to just above season temperatures as well. The point of interest in this forecast period is the weak cold front that will pass through the area for Thursday night. The reason for this cold front is because there is an area of low pressure off to the northeast and an area of high pressure off to the west with Columbia situated right in the center of the two. The anti-cyclonic flow of the high and the cyclonic flow of the low will give us winds out of the northwest and a backing wind profile with height ushering in some weak CAA. 18z GFS soundings also indicate the very calm and dry conditions throughout the rest of the period with the column being very dry from 250mb all the way down to the surface.

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