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Discussion:Monday evening, rain will continue, which will bring total rain fall up to 1.15 inches. Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, frontal passage will cause a wind shift to the North by North West and increase wind, slightly up to 17 mph. Even with the cold air behind the front, temperatures will still be warmer than normal, with the max temperature being between 56-60 degrees. Wednesday become partly cloud. However there is a opportunity for light showery rain, on Thursday
Forecasters: Owens, Savoy, Travis
Issued: 3:00pm: March 9, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The 12Z NAM model was used in the analysis starting at 250 mb and working our way down, as suggested by WPC. SREF plumes guided our average temperatures as well as precipitation amounts.
Sanborn field has already received 0.85 inches beginning around 07Z today and is expected to receive close to 0.3 of an inch more, ending around 06Z tonight. As mentioned in the previous forecast there is a possibility for thunder storms but as looking further into Cape values, no significant peaks have been predicted in the plume viewers, leading us the believe little in the possibility for a significant event tonight. Due to current radar and observation trends, the bulk of the front has moved passed the station, and has yet to produce any significant weather. Given that NWS STL is also not really going for thunderstorms there is a lack of confidence for significant convection. Due to cold FROPA tonight which will shift the winds from south to more north western, helping to decrease saturation levels by taking away the moisture source.
As we move into Tuesday, temperatures will remaining warmer than is season, even with CAA. Skies will continue to clear through out the day as northerly winds fill in find the low pressure system, keeping moisture levels low, helping to keep the sun shining bright. As we move into Tuesday night, a short wave moves through mid Missouri, bringing along moisture giving us another opportunity for rain. Winds begin to shift again into Wednesday allowing for WAA, bringing in clear skies due to lack of moisture and warmer temperatures due to winds from the south. As we move into Thursday, relative humidity and omega increases throughout the day suggesting another opportunity for rain but soundings aren't so convincing. Saturation at the lower levels is seen for multiple time steps but saturation at the upper levels is lacking as well as lift. Future forecasters should keep an eye out for further development.