Monday, March 16, 2020

Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Tuesday - Clouds remain. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Cloudy. Rain likely all day. High: 66-70

Thursday - Cloudy Rain likely with possible thunderstorms. High: 66-70

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Columbia, will remain cloudy all week, with rain forecast on Tuesday through Thursday. While winds will be light, temperatures will also get in the upper 30's to low 40's. After midnight on Tuesday rain will begin and continue in through Thursday. 
Forecasters: Owens, Travis, Heaven
Issued:  5:00pm: March 16, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 Rain has moved downstream and to the East of the Columbia, MO region, however due to the increased moisture and cold air advection behind the front, cloud cover will remain. With this temperatures will also be a little bit colder behind the front, however there will be IR heat generated by both the clouds and ground, so temperatures will go below freezing.

The cloud cover will continue to remain on Tuesday, for the same reasons stated above. The surface level pressure gradient will also remain loose, so winds will also remain light.

This brings us into the Wednesday time frame and the main forecast challenge: precip. The primary cause of this mostly is stratiform precip. The overall pattern being shown by the SREF is not showing to much. The current run is not showing any major short wave troughs, and the overall longwave pattern is a transition into a meridional pattern. Winds at 500 mb throughout the day are around 50kts. Also at the 500-mb level there is some vorticity over Missouri with values in the 8-12 per second range. On the 700-mb level, winds are primarily from the SSW with some Moist Air Advection. At the 850-mb level, there is continual MAA and WAA with winds remaining from the SSW.  In addition, NAM Skew-Ts are showing no significant indices. As such the primary producer of rain will be mostly stratiform in nature. On Thursday conditions from Wednesday will continue to present, so showery rain will continue. Whilst there is some instability this is something future forecaster will have to watch during the later forecast periods.

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