Today looks to be another warmer day with temperatures dipping into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high. Early afternoon past 1 pm, thunderstorms will begin to develop just to the west of Columbia Missouri. Strong thunderstorms with a small possibility of a few severe thunderstorms will begin to push through Central Missouri. As the storms move through overhead, the greatest threat will be high winds and the possibility of small hail. As we get into the early evening, thunderstorms will switch to showers and stick with us throughout the night into Tuesday. Tuesday these showers will remain with us, and we could hear a few rolls of thunder. By Tuesday afternoon these showers will taper off to the west and we will have seen rainfall totals up to an inch and some isolated areas just over. Tuesday night the rainfall and cloud cover will push to the east leading to a temperature drop overnight thanks to motherly flowing winds. Wednesday we begin a slight warm up with partly covered skies.
This forecast was generated with the 06z GFS model run. The current GFS model guidance is accurately depicting the location of the cold front, moisture transport, and low level flow. The main focus for this forecast period will be Monday as the possibility for thunderstorms increases and Tuesdays rainfall totals.
Currently, an upper-level trough is located over the Great Plains region, while much of the midwest is sitting under an upper-level ridge which will try to stunt storm development growth. There is a baroclinic boundary in South Dakota and Iowa which will move into our CWA later this afternoon. Missouri is currently influenced by southwesterly flowing lower-level winds which will lead to the advection of warm, moist air into the region fueling our weather.
Highs for Monday afternoon will be in the upper 70’s thanks to the low level southwesterly winds and mostly cloudy sky conditions. As the day progresses the cold front that is over the Great Plains region will push into the CWA as well as the upper level trough. As stated before thanks to the low level southwesterly winds the area ahead of this cold front will be warm, moist, and unstable with MUCAPE values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg. The low level shear at 0-3km will also support the development of thunderstorms and possibility of hail and damaging winds as it is expected to be around 35-40 kts. The lack of forcing in the mid-levels of the atmosphere due to a mid-level ridge will try to keep storm development conditional, but guidance shows strong convergence along the front which will be the factor for the storm development for Mid Missouri. We will expect to see less than 1 inch of rain Monday and Monday night. Tuesday a low pressure system that was attached to the front will proceed to move Northeast through the region. This produces the possibility for more rainfall and thunderstorms Tuesday as the atmosphere remains moist, there are no severe storms expected with this system. However it will be cooler than normal to due a Northwesterly wind and CAA as temperatures drop 15-20 degrees from Monday. We will expect to see less than 1 inch of rain once again. Tuesday night night the low pressure system will move out of the region followed by a building high and a return to zonal flow for Wednesday. This high pressure system will give us a brief moment to be dry and allows for our temperatures Wednesday to reach into the mid 60’s as we return to a mostly cloudy day.
The next forecasters main area of concern will be the low pressure system driven by a trough. This system will produce the possibility for more showers and thunderstorms into CWA once again.