Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday -
 Mostly cloudy, rain showers are likely. High: 54-58

Tuesday night
- Mostly clear. Low: 38-42

- Sunny. High: 64-68

Wednesday night
- Partly cloudy. Low: 46-50

- Partly sunny, possible showers and thunderstorms PM. High: 62-66

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Below average temperatures are to be expected for today’s high temperature. There is currently a low pressure system that is located in southwest Missouri that will be pushing off to the east into the overnight hours. As this low pressure system sticks around it will be pushing moisture up from the south giving central Missouri a good possibility to see rain today. Showers are likely to be on and off today as the bulk of the rain will be sliding south of I-70. The bulk of the rain will start to push out of the area between 3-5pm. Clearing will start to take place throughout the night as a high pressure system moves it's way into Missouri for Wednesday. Sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with a warm up from that high pressure system. Clouds will start to build into Wednesday night as we have another low pressure system start to push eastward towards Missouri. After today, Thursday afternoon will be the next best chance to see some rain showers move into the area. Precipitation values will remain low, there is currently no risk for flooding. 

Forecaster: Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 04 May 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

A general model blend of the 14z HRRR, 06z NAM, and 06z GFS were used when generating this forecast. The HRRR has been verifying with current moisture content and timing on rain the last few days. The HRRR was primarily used when forecasting the rain that will be moving through the area today. A general model blend of the NAM and the GFS were used when looking at the next possibility for rain on Thursday. The two models are currently showing two different possibilities for timing and how much rain. The SREF plume ensemble was incorporated to this forecast to help determine which model is corresponding better with other models. 

Today into tonight, there is an upper-level shortwave west of Missouri that will start to become zonal throughout the day. Closer to the surface there is a trough that is passing over Missouri. As this trough moves east winds near the surface will start to come out of the north. A low pressure system is associated with this trough, which is located down in southeastern Missouri. The bulk of vertical motion will be right around the center of the low pressure system. Humidity levels will continue to stay high in southern Missouri. As winds switch from the north this will help push the bulk of the moisture to the south, this is the main cause for central Missouri to see on and off showers throughout the day as the bulk of the humidity will continue to slide along I-70. By 21z Tuesday, humidity levels will start to decrease. If this moisture does move out closer to the mid-afternoon this could give central Missouri the opportunity to see some peaks of sun in the late afternoon hours. Precipitation values for today are likely to be from a trace up to .10 of an inch. Clearing will continue into the overnight hours. At 250-mb wind will start to become zonal by 06z Wednesday. Any uplift will push to the east of the conus, and a ridging pattern will start to develop in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the central great plains. 

Headed into Wednesday, central Missouri will be under the influence of a high pressure system. Winds aloft will continue to stay zonal. Down at 700-mb there is a well defined ridge that will start to develop and push its way into Missouri by 12z Wednesday. This will give temperatures the opportunity to warm up into the upper 60’s, which temperatures for this time of year for central Missouri are around the lower to middle 70’s. Even with this high pressure system that will be moving into the area, temperatures will remain slightly under the average. This will be a trend for the rest of the week, as humidity will start to increase into the overnight hours on Wednesday. 

Wednesday night into Thursday, Another trough will start to move into the central great plains. A low pressure system will be associated with this trough. For Thursday, models tend to not agree on moisture content and timing. Future forecasters need to keep an eye on timing, moisture content and how strong these rain showers could be. MUCAPE values are slightly elevated for the afternoon hours. MUCAPE values are too low for anything to be severe, yet if they continue to increase, central Missouri could possibly see some strong thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. 

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