Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday: Increasing clouds into the afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

Friday Night: Overcast with rain showers overnight. Low: 48-52

 

 

Saturday: Overcast with light to moderate rain. High: 62-66

 

 

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Low: 50-54

 

 

 

Sunday: Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning. High: 60-64

 

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Discussion:

From Friday, the atmosphere starts getting cloudy. Through the weekend, Missouri will experience a rainy forecast with seasonal temperatures due to a low pressure system impacting mid-Missouri. Light to moderate rain will be occurring throughout the weekend which will give students a chance to study for their exams. Rainfall accumulations around 1-1.2 inches through the weekend can be expected.

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 Forecasters: Ozdas, Bongard

Date Issued: 05/07/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:

The GFS was used for today's forecast, because it locates the LPS and the temperature is well matched with the observations. GEFS plume were also used for the temperature.

At the 250-mb level, the jet streak is over Missouri, but will be shifting to the north west by subtropical jet streak coupling at the end of this forecast period. From Friday, the area is upstream of an upper-level trough. The height contours will be changing to zonal with the help of the  subtropical jet stream, therefore this will make the flow aloft under the influence of zonal by the end of this forecast period.

At the 500-mb level, because of subtropical jet stream shifting, the circulation from the southwest will be increasing the vorticity value from Friday into Saturday, until the circulation will leave to the northeast Sunday at 21Z.

At the 700-mb level, according  to the model suggestion the moisture content in mid-Missouri will start to increase from Friday 15Z. Not much of UVM has been suggested. However, this cloudy event will stay through Monday 06Z and will shift to the east.

At the 850-mb level, because the subtropical jet stream and the polar jetstream will come across Missouri, the temperature will be fluctuating a little bit. The other reason causing this fluctuation will be a LPS over northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri.

At the surface, the baroclinic environment will start increasing its strength due to the LPS over the middle of the country.

According to GFS soundings on Saturday 12Z, the UVM is high and supports the atmosphere moistening which will bring rain to the area with around 1-1.2 inches of potential rainfall. On Saturday, the UVM is not sufficient enough to support thunderstorms. However, on Sunday 12Z, convection is likely and could create thunderstorms in our area. From this time by Sunday 21Z, Missouri will have light to moderate rainfall.