Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Low: 52
 

 

Saturday: Clear skies. High: 77
 

 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 57
 

 

Sunday:  Mostly sunny and hot. High: 90

 

 

Sunday Night: Clear skies. Low: 60

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:   

Autumn temperatures are on their way out and another dose of summer is on its way in. A cold front will be moving through Friday night, keeping temperatures seasonal into Saturday. A lack of moisture suggests that rain is unlikely for Friday night, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. High pressure moves in behind the front with clear skies and mild temperatures for Saturday. Saturday night, winds shift from the southwest bringing back summer-like temperatures for Sunday into Monday.

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 Forecasters: Ethridge, Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 09/24/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

After an all too brief shot at fall, summer rears its ugly head once again. The main concern for this forecast period is strong WAA that will bring daytime highs back to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Both the GFS and NAM had good consensus resolving the large-scale upper-level pattern, but when compared to GOES upper-level WV imagery, both models had poor handling of the placement, and orientation of the shortwave over south-central Canada. Regardless, the GFS had better handling on daytime highs for Friday. As such, went with GFS guidance. 

As the upper-level shortwave trough that brought storms Monday night, and several days of fall-like temperatures moves further to the northeast, a longwave trough will remain parked over the NE CONUS as another shortwave digs in from Canada to reinforce it. GFS 250-hPa winds and divergence show increased divergence with the wave as well as a present albeit weak jet streak moves in on the back side of the shortwave trough. Much is the same story at 500 hPa with plenty of large-scale circulation associated with this system. All this being said, the GFS keeps the bulk of the disturbance to the northeast. 

Lacking substantially is sufficient moisture to support widespread precipitation. GFS 700-hPa RH shows saturated air extending southwest along the surface frontal boundary, but decreases substantially over Missouri. A lack of rain is supported by GFS soundings with mid- to upper-level saturation, but a 20-30 degree dewpoint depression near the surface. The near surface dry layer never gets the chance to moisten before the surface cold front passes and pushes remaining moisture out of the area. Current radar imagery from KEAX shows showers over the NW part of the state. The HRRR favors that these showers will be able to survive the dry layer in mid-Missouri as such left in the slight possibility for isolated showers.

GFS MSLP and wind indicate frontal passage will occur between 7pm and 10pm. A current look at METARs across the region places the frontal boundary just off to the northwest over Kansas City and NW Missouri. Seeing as how the GFS had poor handling of the upper-level aspects of this system, would not be suprised to see frontal passage on the earlier side closer to 7pm. 

As the system exits, upper-level flow is kept relatively zonal by a cutoff low over the SW CONUS seen in the height field 500 hPa. This will allow skies to clear and temperatures to be on the increase as surface high pressure will park itself to the east, putting Missouri in southerly flow beginning Saturday night. Daytime highs on Sunday will climb back to summer-like in the upper 80s and will remain hot into early next week.

- Travis

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

Friday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 81

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Low: 52

 

Saturday: Clear skies. High: 75

 
 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 57

 

Sunday:  Mostly sunny and hot. High: 90

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:  Increasing clouds as the work week comes to a close will signal the passage of a weak cold front this evening. This cold front will prompt a slight chance of rain before midnight tonight with accumulations less than 0.1 of an inch possible. Skies will clear by morning giving way to a beautiful Fall Saturday. As the weekend progresses high pressure to the south will swing our winds to a more southerly course setting up Sunday to be mostly sunny but unseasonably hot! Chiefs fans attending the game at Arrowhead Sunday will need to hydrate as temperatures in Kansas City could reach the upper 90's during the game.

-Bongard 

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 Forecasters: Splater, Schneringer, Bongard

Date Issued: 09/24/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

   For this forecast period the 06Z run of the GFS20 model was used based upon its consistency with observed temperatures and winds Friday morning. The NAM was also fairly consistent but generally colder than what was observed. Additionally, SREF plumes were used to check on model consistency between runs. While, there was consensus regarding temperature the SREF revealed slight inconcistencies regarding precipitation accumulation in the region tonight and therefore pushed forecasters in the direction of the GFS model. Soundings were also used to determine timing of precipitation in the region as well as identifying wind changes both in the short term dealing with fropa tonight as well as the copious amounts of WAA Saturday night into Sunday.

For Friday, upper level 250-mb analysis shows the base of a well-amplified trough in central Canada extending down into the Midwest Friday morning. This trough will bleed to the east over the course of the day advecting some vorticity at 500 mb into Mid-Missouri this evening. This trough is also responsible for dragging the aforementioned weak cold front through the Midwest Friday evening. According to GFS model soundings, fropa looks to occur between 00Z and 03Z Saturday. Zonal flow in the lower levels will help to steer moisture into the region associated with the frontal boundary. The profile moistens from the top down through the evening and winds will shift from a southwesterly course to northerly by 06Z Saturday. Even so, moisture overhead is short-lived prompting only a slight chance of rain locally with accumulations being 0.05 at best. Convection does not look to be a concern at this time as model soundings do not feature any values of CAPE. Worth mentioning were the existence of higher accumulations to the east. Future forecasters may monitor any shifts in precipitation accumulations with future model runs. 

By Saturday morning, the profile dries out behind the cold front. The region exists in the downstream flow of the upper level trough escaping to the east while a ridge builds into the CONUS from west to east over the course of the day. Northwesterly flow presides over the region at multiple levels Saturday keeping the atmosphere overhead stable and dry. Surface high pressure builds into northeastern Texas by Saturday afternoon which will helps to dramatically increase temperatures in the region Sunday as the western flank of the high opens the region up to breezy southerly flow and considerable WAA.

Sunday will feature mainly sunny skies with only scant moisture values found in the lower levels but significant warm air advection pushing Sunday high temperatures well above seasonal averages as the surface high treks further east.

-Bongard

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night: Clear skies. Low: 50

 

 

Friday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 81

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 52

 

Saturday: Clear skies. High: 75

 
 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 55

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:   Thursday night will bring clear skies with a low of 50, perfect for a bonfire on this Fall evening. The clear skies will continue into Friday morning. However, by Friday afternoon after classes, the temperature will reach a high of 81 with clouds moving in. Starting off the weekend, Friday night will see a weak cold front moving through, and while no rain is expected, cloud cover will increase with a low of 52. Clouds will quickly move out early Saturday morning, giving way to sunny skies that will continue through the afternoon into Saturday. Saturday, hardly affected by the passage of the cold front, will feature an ideal Fall day perfect for spending time outdoors with a high of 75 and a low of 55.

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 Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 09/23/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

    This forecast was assembled using the 12Z run of the GFS, which was chosen for its more accurate initial temperatures and winds. GEFS and SREFs plumes were used to forecast temperatures, and GFS soundings were used to asses rainfall potential. 

    At the 250-mb level, plots of heights, winds, and divergence features zonal flow to start off the forecast period. However, by 00Z Saturday, Missouri falls under the influence of a large upper level trough. The trough pushes higher levels of divergence into the area and, around 09Z Saturday, Missouri is briefly under the polar jet. However, by 18Z any influence from the trough moves out of the area and calm conditions at this level return. 

    Moving down to the 500-mb level, plots of heights and vorticity also depict the influence of Friday night's trough passage. Abundant vorticity begins entering the Mid-Missouri region around 03Z Saturday, and remains in the area until the trough moves out 18Z Saturday. Similar to the above level, calm and clear conditions return after this time. 

    700-mb plots of RH and heights help determine whether or not the conditions associated with the trough will produce any rainfall. High RH values move in between 00Z and 03Z Saturday, which is the same time as the passage of the trough. the abundant moisture is short lived and is gone from Mid-Missouri by 09Z Saturday. While there is moisture present, GFS soundings do not support much rainfall, if any. The sounding at 03Z Saturday shows a slightly saturated profile from 700-mb and up. Below 700-mb, however, there is a thick dry layer, and it seems unlikely that any rainfall could survive passing through this layer. 

    At 850-mb, plots of heights, winds, and temperatures indicate that there is a weak cold front associated with the trough. The front shifts winds to a northwesterly direction, but a ridge approaching from the southwest soon shifts winds at this level back to a westerly direction. Saturday night, winds then shift southerly, encouraging warmer temperatures.

    At the surface level, solenoids enter Missouri around 09Z Friday, resulting in the higher high seen Friday. The passage of the cold front is also apparent in the MSLP lines and winds at this level. This weaker front puts an end to the warmer temperatures as it passes between 06Z and 09Z Saturday. Winds soon shift back to a southerly direction, keeping the temperatures in a seasonal range.

  

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 75

 

 

Thursday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Low: 52

 

 

Friday: Becoming Mostly Cloudy, Late. High: 83

 
 

Friday Night:  Cloudy. Low: 50

Saturday: Becoming Sunny. High: 73

 

 

 

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Discussion:  

After a clear and crisp morning, temperatures for Thursday will rebound nicely into the middle 70s with a mostly sunny sky. By Friday temperatures will warm to the lower 80s as high pressure to our southeast sends us a southerly flow. However, ahead of an approaching area of low-pressure clouds will build into the region, late Friday afternoon into Friday night. After, the passage of the trough early Saturday, the sky will become sunny and temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the lower 70s. 

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 Forecasters: Duff, McDonald, Aldrich

Date Issued: 09/23/21 9:45 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

The 06z GFS20 was used for today's forecast because it has been handling the temperatures and moisture more accurately than the NAM. GFS soundings were used to aid in forecasting sky conditions and the chances for precipitation over the forecast period.

Looking at the 300-mb heights, the earlier area of low-pressure continues to move off to the east, allowing for calm and quiet conditions for the Midwest.  In its wake, another area of low-pressure and an associated trough begins to dig deeper into the Mississippi River Valley over the forecast period, allowing upper-level cloudiness to increase by 21z on Friday. This area of low-pressure does contain quite a bit of upper-level moisture, but it's rather progressive in nature, allowing for a cloud-free day by Saturday. Until then, however, expect a mostly sunny sky through the day on Thursday.

500-mb plots of heights and vorticity show the arrival of the new trough arriving into the region by 21z, Friday.  Considerable amounts of vorticity were observed across the upper Midwest by 00z Saturday, however, that forcing looks to stay north of our forecast area, indicating that cloud cover should prevail for the region into Friday afternoon, Friday evening, and during the overnight.  By Saturday morning, this entire system pushes off to the east and as high-pressure builds in, sky conditions should become increasingly sunny on Saturday.

From evaluating relative humidity, heights, and vertical velocity on the 700-mb map, we see upper-level moisture increasing into the region as soon as 18z, Friday. Further forecast periods of the model plots indicate that this moisture remains in the upper-levels and doesn't really impact us at the surface. The end result for us would be increasing cloud cover with very limited chances for precipitation (sprinkles) as we approach 06z on Saturday. Winds will also change to more of a northwesterly component after the passage of this frontal system by 12z Saturday.

850-mb heights, winds, and temperatures show minimal moisture at the surface from 18z Thursday, through the period, although, upper-level moisture continues to increase due to the placement and energy of the upper-level trough and low-pressure system. Winds, although light from the south, will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 80s on Friday, but cool back into the more comfortable low 70s by Saturday.

The next forecasting shift should pay attention to the opportunity for low-level moisture (showers) as the upper-level trough and low-pressure system move through the region late Friday into Saturday.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 75

 

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 52

 
 

Friday:  Partly Cloudy. High: 83

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 54

 

 

 

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Discussion:  

With the frontal passage earlier this week, cooler temperatures befitting of the Fall Equinox have moved into the area. Clear skies and northerly winds will continue to keep our temperatures low through Thursday. Friday will start to warm up with a change in our winds to the west. Beginning Friday afternoon our skies will start to become cloudy as a low pressure system over Wisconsin brings moisture into our region. The end of the forecasting period will see a return of summer-like weather as we gear up for the weekend.

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 Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 09/22/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

The 12Z GFS20 was used for today's forecast because it has been handling the LPS over Illinois with more accuracy than the NAM. GFS soundings were used to aid in forecasting sky conditions and SREF and GEFS plumes were referenced for temperatures.

Looking at the 250-mb heights, winds, and divergence plot, the LPS over Illinois can be seen moving east as we start our forecasting period. This system closes off starting Wednesday at 15Z and continues to develop as it moves over the Great Lakes region. During this time, a ridge overtakes the central United States including Missouri, this keeps our winds from the NW. Friday sees westerly winds as the ridge leaves and zonal flow remains until Saturday at 03Z when a new trough extends from eastern Ontario down to north Missouri.

500 mb plots of heights and vorticity show vast amounts of circulation associated with the LPS in the Midwest. This vorticity is sitting just east of Columbia on Wednesday, so we will no longer see the effects in the form of cloud cover from this system. When the 03Z Saturday trough arrives, it bring with it high values of rotation with a vort max in southern Wisconsin. We receive the remnants of this rotation, giving way to clouds Friday afternoon and evening.

From evaluating relative humidity, heights, and vertical velocity on the 700-mb level, we see the moisture leaving with the week's earlier frontal passage. Mid-Missouri stays dry at this level until the trough nears at the end of the forecasting period. This paired with the GFS soundings supports clear skies until Friday when clouds begin to form and continue forming into Friday night. Since the majority of the moisture stays north with the trough, rain is not expected to fall in Columbia. 

850 mb heights, winds, and temperatures show the northern winds from the cold front continuing to dominate the area keeping our days cool and nights cold. This persists until 09Z Friday when we see a wind shift to the west. 1000-500 mb thickness shown on a plot with MSLP shows some WAA at this same time making Friday much warmer and closer to the summer temperatures with which we're accustomed.

The next forecasting period should pay attention to the building moisture in our area associated with the LPS north of us on Friday night.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 72

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear and colder. Low: 46

 

 

Thursday: Clear skies. High: 75

 
 

Thursday Night:  Clear. Low: 52

Friday: Partly cloudy.  High:  80

 

 

 

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Discussion:   Fall weather is in full effect on campus after the frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday that brought cooler temperatures and much needed rainfall to mid-Missouri. Seasonal high temperatures will be the story for Wednesday and Thursday with the coldest temperatures seen since May returning to the area thanks to clear skies overnight tonight. A warming trend will begin Thursday and take a significant leap toward warmer temperatures Friday thanks to the presence of high pressure to the south. Fair will preside over the region to close out the work week.

-Bongard

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 Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 09/22/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

For this forecast period the 06Z run of the GFS was chosen based upon its consistency with current conditions, specifically surface temperature. The NAM was running significantly colder than what is being observed.  

For Wednesday, upper level model charts at 250 mb reveal a ridge-trough pattern over the CONUS. Northwest flow in the Midwest is evident behind the frontal passage that occurred Monday night into Tuesday. Vorticity at 500 mb resides just to the east associated with the aforementioned fropa that will slowly erode to the east over the course of the day. The northwest flow is consistent with lower levels as well where a lack of moisture will keep skies mostly sunny today. The region is entrenched in post frontal weather regime. 

Wednesday night will host continued northwest flow over the region though the ridge to the west over the Rockies will begin to push into the central CONUS by Thursday morning. A new trough just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest carrying with it plenty of vorticity at 500 mb will begin to make its way into the Intermountain West. The lack of moisture in the lower levels continues which will lead to plenty of radiational cooling overnight tonight dropping temperatures into the upper 40's; the coldest its been since May 31st. 

The low pressure system that impacted the region earlier in the week meanders over the Great Lakes region as the upper level ridge finally pushes into the Midwest. This will prompt upper level flow to begin to shift from the northwest back to the west inducing zonal flow over the area by Thursday evening. The trough to the west slowly makes its way over the Rockies Thursday as the ridge begins to de-amplify thanks to the strengthening of a trough over central Canada. High pressure builds to the southwest which will be the impetus for warmer conditions to close out the forecast period. 

Zonal flow aloft Thursday night takes over as the ridge dissipates and the trough to the north takes over the flow regime. A slight increase in low level moisture may add some cloud cover Thursday night stabilizing overnight lows to more seasonal levels. The high pressure system begins to migrate to the east promoting west-to-east surface winds overnight. 

Friday will be significantly warmer than Thursday as the western flank of the high pressure to the south turns surface winds to a more southerly course. The trough to the west will make its way into the central CONUS but fall short of reaching Missouri before the end of the forecast period Friday afternoon. This system embedded in the trough is packing plenty of moisture and vorticity to potentially impact the region this weekend. Future forecasters should monitor this system closely.   

-Bongard

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night:  Cloudy. Low: 50

 

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 72

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

 

Thursday: Clear skies. High: 73

 
 

Thursday Night:  Clear. Low: 52

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:   The clouds and cool temperatures from Monday night's cold front remain throughout the day Tuesday and into the night. From there, we will see less clouds, but cool temperatures remain, giving us a taste of fall weather. Calm and clear conditions continue over the rest of the forecast period. On Thursday night, winds shift from northerly to southerly, causing our nighttime temperatures to be a bit warmer than the previous nights'.

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 Forecasters:VanUnnik, Watts, Orr

Date Issued: 09/21/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

 This forecast was made using the 12Z run of the GFS. The GFS was chosen due to its more accurate initial conditions when compared to the NAM. SREF and GEFS plumes were used to assess temperatures, and GFS soundings were consulted for sky conditions. 

    At the 250-mb level, plots of heights, winds, and divergence depict a large upper level trough passing over Missouri 06Z Wednesday. Abundant amounts of divergence are associated with this trough, but they only help encourage cloud cover. By Thursday, calmer upper level conditions return as a result of an upper level ridge, and by late Thursday zonal flow returns. 

    500-mb plots of heights and vorticity also depict the passage of a large trough and the abundant amounts of vorticity it brings with it. Missouri is out of its influence by 09Z Thursday and sees little to no circulations for the rest of the forecast period. 

    Plots of heights and relative humidity at 700-mb show why there is no storm development, even though there are high amounts of vorticity and divergence passing through the forecast area Wednesday night. There may be some scattered clouds Wednesday morning due to small amounts of leftover moisture in the atmosphere, but by noon Wednesday all RH values over 70% are out of the region. GFS soundings also favor the lack of moisture after Tuesday night, and by 00Z Thursday, any cloud cover is out of the question. 

    At 850-mb, heights, winds, and temperatures give the cause for the "fall like" temperatures seen over the next few days. Winds remain in a northerly direction after the passage of Monday's cold front. These winds not only cause our cooler temperatures, but their direction is also preventing any moisture from entering the region from the Gulf. This encourages our clear skies seen from Wednesday and onward. A ridging pattern begins entering the region 00Z Thursday, shifting winds to a more westerly direction and encouraging a warmer low temperature Thursday night.

    The surface level plots of MSLP, thickness, and winds tell a similar story to the above levels. Winds remain in a northerly direction until around 12Z Thursday, when they begin to shift because of the incoming ridge. A high pressure system associated with this ridge also encourages clear skies and warmer temperatures, making for a calm day Thursday.