Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night: Clear skies. Low: 50

 

 

Friday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 81

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 52

 

Saturday: Clear skies. High: 75

 
 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 55

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:   Thursday night will bring clear skies with a low of 50, perfect for a bonfire on this Fall evening. The clear skies will continue into Friday morning. However, by Friday afternoon after classes, the temperature will reach a high of 81 with clouds moving in. Starting off the weekend, Friday night will see a weak cold front moving through, and while no rain is expected, cloud cover will increase with a low of 52. Clouds will quickly move out early Saturday morning, giving way to sunny skies that will continue through the afternoon into Saturday. Saturday, hardly affected by the passage of the cold front, will feature an ideal Fall day perfect for spending time outdoors with a high of 75 and a low of 55.

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 Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 09/23/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

    This forecast was assembled using the 12Z run of the GFS, which was chosen for its more accurate initial temperatures and winds. GEFS and SREFs plumes were used to forecast temperatures, and GFS soundings were used to asses rainfall potential. 

    At the 250-mb level, plots of heights, winds, and divergence features zonal flow to start off the forecast period. However, by 00Z Saturday, Missouri falls under the influence of a large upper level trough. The trough pushes higher levels of divergence into the area and, around 09Z Saturday, Missouri is briefly under the polar jet. However, by 18Z any influence from the trough moves out of the area and calm conditions at this level return. 

    Moving down to the 500-mb level, plots of heights and vorticity also depict the influence of Friday night's trough passage. Abundant vorticity begins entering the Mid-Missouri region around 03Z Saturday, and remains in the area until the trough moves out 18Z Saturday. Similar to the above level, calm and clear conditions return after this time. 

    700-mb plots of RH and heights help determine whether or not the conditions associated with the trough will produce any rainfall. High RH values move in between 00Z and 03Z Saturday, which is the same time as the passage of the trough. the abundant moisture is short lived and is gone from Mid-Missouri by 09Z Saturday. While there is moisture present, GFS soundings do not support much rainfall, if any. The sounding at 03Z Saturday shows a slightly saturated profile from 700-mb and up. Below 700-mb, however, there is a thick dry layer, and it seems unlikely that any rainfall could survive passing through this layer. 

    At 850-mb, plots of heights, winds, and temperatures indicate that there is a weak cold front associated with the trough. The front shifts winds to a northwesterly direction, but a ridge approaching from the southwest soon shifts winds at this level back to a westerly direction. Saturday night, winds then shift southerly, encouraging warmer temperatures.

    At the surface level, solenoids enter Missouri around 09Z Friday, resulting in the higher high seen Friday. The passage of the cold front is also apparent in the MSLP lines and winds at this level. This weaker front puts an end to the warmer temperatures as it passes between 06Z and 09Z Saturday. Winds soon shift back to a southerly direction, keeping the temperatures in a seasonal range.