Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Sunny skies. High: 83

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies and cooler. Low: 56

 

 

Thursday: Sunny skies. High: 85
 

 

Thursday Night: Fair conditions with chance of fog by morning. Low: 55

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 88

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:

A chamber of commerce day is in store for Columbia and all of Mid-Missouri behind the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening that brought rain to southern and eastern portions of the state. The cold front helps to cool off temperatures Wednesday and Thursday before another warm up begins Friday. No rain expected through the end of the work week.

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 Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 09/15/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:

 This forecast period used the 06Z NAM40 run based upon its consistency with current conditions observed at the beginning of the period. GFS unfortunately, was running a bit too warm.

 

At 250-mb, the beginning of the forecast period reveals jet streaks over the northern CONUS away from the Midwest today as a jet streak associated with the previous days system slides off to the east over eastern Canada and New England. Troughing over the northeastern CONUS is giving way to zonal flow that will build into the region today and tonight. This pattern continues through Thursday with what looks to be the development of a cut off low to our southwest over north Texas and Oklahoma Thursday. The low does not look to be a weather maker for Mid-Missouri.

The 500-mb charts show vorticity associated with Tuesday's frontal passage escaping the area to the east-southeast Wednesday morning. After that the region is void of any significant energy through the end of the forecast period Friday afternoon. Some vorticity associated with the aforementioned cut off low to the southwest appears Thursday evening but stays well south of Missouri.

The lower levels show a surface high pressure system developing to the west over central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. This system will be the impetus of the calm weather conditions over the area through the remainder of the week. At 700 mb some lift is found over the northern Plains associated with a developing short wave strengthening in a broad but deepening trough over central Canada. This short wave does not look to impact the region before the end of the period. 

NAM model sounding profile reveal an extremely stable atmosphere over central Missouri. The one noticeable caveat is the possibility of some early morning fog Thursday night into Friday. This is mainly due to strong radiational cooling and lack of any significant wind at that time. Any fog that does develop should burn off by mid morning on Friday. 

Future forecast shifts may want to look further into the fog potential Friday morning.