Thursday Night: Clear skies. Low: 62

 

Friday: Clear in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 89

  

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 63
 

 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 89

 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High: 87

 

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Discussion:

Thursday night and into Friday morning will feature clear skies like we have seen over the past few days. Clouds begin popping up Friday afternoon and persist overnight. The cloud cover thins Saturday, and unseasonably warm temperatures make it a perfect day to go watch the Mizzou football game and Parent's Weekend. Cloud cover returns Sunday, but temperatures remain warm.

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 Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 09/16/21 05:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:

    The 12Z run of the GFS was used to create this forecast. When its MOS statistics were compared to those of the NAM's, the GFS had more accurate current temperatures, winds, and wind direction. GEFS and SREF plumes were also used to help forecast temperatures, and GFS soundings were used to assess cloud cover timing and any potential of rainfall. 

    At the 250-mb level, plots of heights, divergence, and winds depict zonal flow moving out of the region by late Friday. Weak FROPA early Saturday morning brings with it abundant divergence and a shift in upper level winds. By Sunday, however, winds are influenced by an upper level trough.

     Plots of winds, heights, and vorticity at 500-mb continue to depict Friday's clear skies being interrupted by the weak FROPA around 06Z Saturday. Any vorticity associated with this front dissipates as it passes over Mid-Missouri. This suggests frontolysis will occur over our forecasting region, causing the front's impact on our weather to be even smaller. Future forecasters should watch this front to see if its influence on our weather changes, and if frontolysis still occurs over our area. By 00Z Sunday, vorticity and heights suggest a low pressure system moving into southern Missouri, another factor future forecasters should look for. 

    700-mb plots of heights and relative humidity suggest that, while we will see weak frontal passage, Mid-Missouri should only see cloud cover as a result of it. Abundant moisture dissipates as frontolysis begins around 03Z Saturday and, by the time it reaches it forecast area, it is almost non-existent. Due to the lack of moisture, rainfall is unlikely. GFS soundings also favor the lack of rainfall. Atmospheric profiles barely reach enough saturation to encourage cloud cover, let alone any potential showers.

    At 850-mb, heights, winds, and temperatures reveal both the cause for the unseasonably warm temperatures and the lack of moisture for rainfall over the course of this forecast. Southwesterly winds move in warm air on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Winds are hardly affected by the weak front, and continuously provide a source of warmer air. A low pressure system over Louisiana is affecting the LLJ, cutting off any abundant moisture from reaching Central Missouri and only allowing cloud cover to result from the front. 

    At the surface level, MSLP, thickness, and winds tell a similar story to the levels above.Winds remain southerly, encouraging warmer temperatures. Frontolysis is very evident at this level, since you can hardly detect the front after it reaches Missouri.