Thursday, September 16, 2021

 


Thursday:
Sunny skies. High: 86

 



Thursday Night:
Clear skies. Low: 60
 
 


Friday:
Mostly sunny in the morning. cloud cover increasing by the afternoon.  High: 89
 
 
 

Friday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 65
 



Saturday:
Partly cloudy. High: 89


 
 
 
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Discussion:

The main theme for this forecast is mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Thursday and Thursday night see the most seasonable temperatures and the clearest skies of this forecast. Friday morning will start off with clear skies, but by the afternoon spotty clouds will begin to pop up in our area. These clouds persist over Friday night and into Saturday. While there may be some clouds, unseasonably warm temperatures for this time of year will make Saturday the perfect day to cheer on the Mizzou Tigers.

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 Forecaster: Orr

Date Issued: 09/16/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:

    The 06Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast. When compared to MOS guidance from the NAM, the GFS had more accurate current temperatures, wind direction, and wind speed. SREF and GEFS plumes were used to forecast temperatures, and GFS soundings were used to examine cloud cover and any rainfall potential.
    At 250-mb, plots of heights, winds, and divergence show that zonal flow dominates the start of the forecast period. By 00Z Friday, a shortwave trough moves through, shifting winds to a northerly direction. The winds remain this way until 06Z Saturday when higher amounts of divergence begin moving into northern Missouri. 
    500-mb plots of heights and vorticity continue to favor calm conditions for the forecast area. Abundant vorticity remains out of the region until 09Z Saturday. At this time, a line of vorticity that appears to be associated with a cold front moves through, weakening as it passes over Missouri. Future forecasters should keep an eye on this front to see if it strengthens or weakens over the next few days. 
    Plots of heights and moisture at 700-mb show Missouri staying fairly dry for the next few days. Mid-Missouri sees no abundant moisture until the passage of the front Friday night. Even then, this front rapidly loses moisture as it passes through the state, most moisture having disappeared by the time it passes over Mid-Missouri. Rain chances are low because of this lack of moisture, and the main impact of this passing front should be cloud cover. 
    At 850-mb, evidence of this front becomes even less apparent. Southwesterly winds at this level are pushing warm air into the region, resulting in the above average temperatures to be seen Friday and Saturday. A LPS over Louisiana has cut off the LLJ from reaching Missouri, which explains the lack of abundant moisture seen in this forecast. 
    At the surface level, the cold front is visible in the northern U.S., but as it makes its way into Missouri, it becomes much less apparent and weakens quickly. This gives even more support to the idea that the only thing resulting from this FROPA is cloudy skies. 
    GFS soundings provided timing of cloud cover over the course this forecast period. Cloud cover is most favorable Friday night and into Saturday, but even then there isn't enough moisture in the atmosphere for the region to be overcast.

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