Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 64
Tuesday: Clear. High: 90
Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Low: 66
Wednesday: Becoming cloudy. High: 86
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Showers around and after sunset. Low: 67
Discussion:
Monday nearly broke the record high temperature of 93 that was set in 1897. This heat will carry into tomorrow and keep our temperatures in a summer like state. Tonight the sky is expected to remain clear, cooling the temperatures down to 64. The winds are also expected to die off and remain calmer over the upcoming days. Tuesday is expected to be very similar to Monday, except less wind, with a clear sky and a high temperature of 90. Clouds are expected to begin building in the overnight hours of Tuesday. This cloud cover should help keep the temperatures slightly warmer than the previous night with a low of 66. Going into Wednesday, we will see more cloud cover entering the area and keep our high temperature notably cooler at 86. For Wednesday night, expect showers to begin around sunset and continue throughout most of the night. Precipitation totals for Wednesday night are expected to total .25 inch and the low temperature will be 67 as a low pressure system pass through the area.
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Forecasters: Gromada, Alexander, Gotsch
Date Issued: 09/27/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
This forecast was generated with the use of the 12z GFS model run. The current GFS model guidance aligns with the current conditions better than the NAM. The main focus for this forecast period will be the above average temperatures and the possibility of showers Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.
Currently the Mid-Mississippi Valley is under a ridge that extends into Canada. This leads to clearer skies and the higher temperatures. The WAA will cause above average temperatures for the Mid-Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday. Going into Tuesday night the LLJ will provide enough moisture to cause clouds to begin forming and will inhibit radiation cooling in the overnight hours keeping the low temperatures higher than the night before. The cloud cover that began forming Tuesday night will increase during the day on Wednesday slowing the daily heating, causing the high to be closer to the seasonal averages. As the ridge and subsequent high pressure system move further to the east, WAA and moisture advection will become more prominent into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. This advection will eventually cause showers to develop Wednesday evening and night as the moisture begins hitting the backside of the dry line that was created from the ridge. QPF totals around .25 inch are to be expected.
The next forecasters main area of concern will be with the upper-level ridge leaving the Mid-Mississippi Valley region which could alter the amount of WAA and moisture advection into the Columbia area altering the timing and intensity of the showers on Wednesday.
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