Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clouds clearing around midnight. Low: 36

 

Thursday: Clear and colder. High: 41

 

 

Thursday Night: Clouds move in past midnight. Low: 23
 

 

 

Friday: Cloudy. High: 40

 

 

Friday Night: Clearing clouds overnight. Low: 30

 

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Discussion: 

 After Wednesday's storms, calmer weather moves in for the latter part of the week. Expect cooler temperatures in the 40s for both Thursday and Friday. Thursday will be filled with sunshine, while more clouds build in for Friday.

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Cook and Chirpich

Date Issued: 2/22/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

It's been a wet Wednesday, as our campus has seen an excessive amount of rain throughout the day. As the low moves through our region and off to the east, we will be seeing a period of calmer weather over the next few days. With this calmer weather, we will be seeing cooler weather the next couple of days. We used the GFS model to formulate this forecast because the GFS had most accurately forecast the observed current conditions at the time of forecasting. 

The surface low that brought our rain today was caused by a short wave trough that is visible at 300mb. As the short wave trough moves off to our east, it will be followed by a long period of zonal wind flow aloft, which is evident at 300mb, 500mb, and 700mb heights.

Wednesday night and Thursday look to be calm. The surface low that passes Wednesday night will also bring a cold front through, ushering in colder temperatures for Thursday. After the passage of that cold front, the conditions will clear up, and we will be seeing a clear sky. The clear conditions will continue until mid level moisture moves in later Thursday night.

Friday will have colder temperatures and cloudiness. 700mb analysis shows ample moisture move over the CWA late Thursday night. This moisture will remain over the area through all of Friday, and will exit the region early Saturday morning. 850mb analysis shows a brief pocket of moisture that slides over mid Missouri Friday night, and dissipates not soon after. The moisture will lead to overcast conditions for all of Friday. Overcast conditions are supported by model soundings showing mid level saturation throughout the day Friday. The colder temperatures will be due to a surface level high pressure system located over North Dakota and Minnesota. This system will feed Missouri with cold arctic air out of the Canadian north. The cloud cover will dissipate later Friday night, as the moisture exits the region.

-Cook

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 49.
              

 

Wednesday: Morning rain exiting by early afternoon. Thunder possible. High: 67

 

Wednesday Night: Decreasing clouds overnight. Low: 38. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High: 39

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 18

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:  

Umbrellas will be necessary tomorrow as rain will begin early in the morning and last into the early afternoon hours. High temperatures tomorrow are forecasted to be in the mid 60s before a cold front passes through the area overnight on Wednesday. Thursday will be significantly cooler with high temperatures in the upper 30s and wind gusts up to 35mph possible.

-McCormack

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Forecasters: Smith, McCormack, Peine

Date Issued: 2/21/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The GFS was favored for this forecast because of its more accurate depiction of the centers of pressure systems and locations of fronts.


Currently there is a jet streak sitting over Kentucky making its way eastward. A trough behind it starts to move into the area, bringing in higher levels of upper level divergence, most specifically around 18Z on Wednesday. In addition to increased divergence, the trough brings in a strong band of vorticity, as seen on the 500 MB vorticity map from 18-21Z on Wednesday. Coming with the trough is another strong jet streak that will sit over Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa by 15Z Thursday.


A mid level low pressure system will move into the Colorado-Nebraska area. This system will bring moisture with it as seen in the relative humidity maps at both 700 MB and 850 MB. There is also a strong high pressure system off the eastern coast of Florida that is driving a strong low level jet into the southern US where it gets picked up by the LPS from earlier. This allows for strong moisture transfer into the low Midwest. The moisture brought down from the Northwest and brought up by the LLJ will give the area much needed moisture for potential precipitation. The 700MB vertical velocity map shows ample lift for possible storm development at 18Z Wed.


A broad surface low pressure system is going to push its way into the region on Wednesday. The moisture from the NW and the moisture brought up by the LLJ will converge on Mid Missouri. This will give ample moisture for precipitation to start. GFS soundings show a saturation of the entire vertical profile, with precipitation starting at 12Z on Wednesday. Soundings show significant lift at 18Z on Wednesday which lines up with the 700MB vertical velocity map from before. This also lines up with the vorticity band and the upper level divergence timing wise. These ingredients will likely elevate the system from rain showers to thunderstorms. As there is not a lot of energy in the atmosphere with CAPE values being in the 300-400 kj at 18Z Wed, these storms are not expected to become severe. Rain is expected from 12Z Wed to 21Z Wed with the chance for thunderstorms happening at around 18Z on Wed. Throughout the duration, rainfall totals are expected to be between 0.5-0.75 in. Following the rain event will be a cold front moving through the area at approximately 3Z Thurs. This will be most notable in the almost 180 degree shift in the winds from the south to the north. Following the passage of the LPS and the cold front, a high pressure system originating from Alberta will slide into the Northern US states, locking in cold air for a day as it moves east across the north. Our high temperature on Wednesday will be 67F but after the cold front moves through, the forecast high will drop to 39F on Thursday. The lows on Wednesday and Thursday will be 38F and 18F respectively.

 -Smitty

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

  Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 57.
              

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 49

Wednesday: Thunderstorms in the afternoon, some may be severe. High: 64.

Wednesday Night: Clearing clouds. Low: 43

 

 

 Thursday: Sunny. High: 43

 

 

 

 

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Discussion: The beginning of the week will remain unseasonably warm! However, as a cold front passes through Wednesday afternoon. After this cold front passes, cold air will move into our area and high pressure will dominate.

-Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier

Date Issued: 2/21/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Unseasonably warm, spring-like temperatures will dominate for the early portion of the work week. A combination of the NAM and GFS was used since both models are mainly in agreement on the timing of the frontal passages. The biggest problem this week is the cut-off low pressure system that is currently in Mexico. This low-pressure system will bring us lots of precipitation along with the chances of severe weather.

In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the Polar Jet and Sub-tropical jet are merging together off to the east. With this merging, there is a very strong jet-streak off to the east which is bringing us zonal flow. The cut-off low over Mexico will continue to move towards Missouri. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, this low-pressure system will be reabsorbed into the upper-level flow. After it is reabsorbed, is turns into a shortwave trough. As it gets closer to the midwest, this shortwave becomes negatively tilted right before it impacts mid-Missouri. Since it becomes negatively tilted, this will increase the likelihood of severe weather. Also, as this negatively tilted trough impacts the area, it brings in a lot of upper-air divergence which also increases the risk of severe weather. The divergence enters the region at 18Z Wednesday and is completely gone by 00Z Thursday. Once the system passes, zonal flow returns and high pressure dominates.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, we see the cut-off low become absorbed into the upper-level flow. Vorticity begins to build in at 15Z Wednesday. This vorticity continues to build throughout the day until the vorticity max passes over at 21Z. The same is true for relative humidity and omega. The atmosphere is dry in the mid-levels until 18Z Wednesday when the air begins to saturate to 100% humidity. Along with the humidity building in, omega builds in at 18Z and becomes very strong. The relative humidity along with the strong levels of omega will increase the risk of severe weather. At 00Z Thursday, all the vorticity, humidity, and omega will all leave the area. The area will then remain dry throughout the remainder of the week.

In the low-levels of the atmosphere, a very strong LLJ forms. The LLJ is right over mid-Missouri and will have winds over 60kts from the south. This LLJ will advect lots of moisture into Columbia, along with warm air. WAA will then occur overnight Tuesday. The dewpoint at 850mb will reach 11 degrees Celsius, which is very high for this time of year. This lines up with the passage of the storms as the dewpoint reaches 60 degrees F at the surface at 18Z Wednesday. Thunderstorms are expected and have a chance to be severe Wednesday. CAPE values do not become impressive at the surface as they do not go over 100. The LI is 0 which is not impressive but it is good for February. However, the omega values on the GFS are very high which will help with severe weather formation. Also, the LCL and LFC are very low and close together. Overall, thunderstorms are expected with a chance of them being severe. After the cold front passes, CAA will take over for the rest of the week and high pressure at the surface will dominate.

The cut-off low currently over Mexico will be the main weather maker for this week. This along with the unseasonably high temperatures will bring the area thunderstorms with a chance of severe thunderstorms. 0.75-1" of rain is expected to fall over mid-Missouri. The rain will mainly be from 18Z to 21Z Wednesday. Also, the rain is expected to be very heavy.

-Meier

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 34

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 53

Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 46

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High: 67

Wednesday Night: Clearing, becoming breezy. Low: 42

 

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Discussion: It might be February, but warm temperatures this week sure make it seem like spring is in the air! Enjoy the pleasant weather tomorrow, as widespread showers and even some thunderstorms will move into MO on Wednesday. And don't put away that winter coat just yet... you'll want it for the end of the week!

-Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell

Date Issued: 2/20/2023 05:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

    Unseasonably, warm, spring-like temperatures will continue to infiltrate mid-MO Tuesday before a dramatic (but brief) pattern shift occurs during the second half of the work week. Several consecutive vortmaxes guided by a larger open shortwave will move across much of the Midwest and Deep South Wednesday, bringing with them showers and even some thunderstorms. At the same time, a low-pressure center will eject out of the Rockies and deepen considerably as it pushes east toward IA. The cold front associated with this low will sweep through early Thursday morning, prompting a rapid cool-down and gusty winds Thursday. 

    Presently, an impressive jet streak with winds approaching 200 kts is providing central MO with rigid zonal flow. This pattern sticks around through Tuesday before a closed low stuck over the Baja Peninsula becomes dislodged by developing low pressure over the Pacific NW. As the low weakens and morphs into an open wave with its progression over the Desert SW, several vorticity maxima form ahead of it, providing the catalyst for rain chances on Wednesday. 

    As is the case in the upper levels, an impressive zonal flow regime is present in the mid levels at the start of the forecast period. By Tuesday morning, however, winds rapidly take on a southerly component, with tight solenoids hinting at impressive WAA and moisture advection during the day Tuesday. Aforementioned moisture becomes quite plentiful by Wednesday morning ahead of the passage of the main shortwave, and will be more than enough for widespread showers and even some thunderstorms across the area. While this is ongoing, another area of low pressure will move off the Rockies and deepen as it moves across KS and IA. By the time its associated cold front makes its approach Thursday morning, however, almost all of the mid-level moisture will have cleared MO. Consequently, this will be a dry FROPA... though it will still bring with it very cold temperatures by Thursday night. 

    A moderate LLJ will rapidly advect low-level moisture and warm temperatures overnight Tuesday, setting the stage for Wednesday's rain. This LLJ will help push up a weak surface warm front that will stall out over the region Wednesday, with surface dewpoints near 60F along and south of this boundary. The axis of this front will coincide with a narrow band of higher PWATs, and thus the potential for higher rain totals. Currently, model guidance is suggesting that this band will fall right over central MO. If this does resolve, Columbia could see rainfall totals approaching 1.25". It should be cautioned, however, that a slight shift north or south in the location of the warm front would cause lower rainfall totals, in the .75"-1" range. Thunderstorms are also a possibility, given the presence of ML and SFC CAPE values in excess of 300 J/kg, which is impressive for February. Severe weather is not expected this far north, though, even with the presence of sufficient low-level veering and modest Omega values, as the environment looks to foster a more elevated storm mode. By Wednesday evening, moisture will have moved out of MO and clouds will begin to clear ahead of Thursday morning's cold FROPA. Gusty winds are certainly a possibility Thursday morning, as the pressure gradient associated with the low-pressure center tightens across MO.

-Shaw

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday: Mostly Clear. High: 63

Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low:34

Tuesday: Increasing clouds: High 61

Tuesday Evening: Overcast. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Rain with a chance of thunderstorms. High: 65

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Discussion: 

The beginning part of this week will continue our Spring like weather with sunshine and 60's for the highs. Looking to Wednesday the main focus of this week is a round of rain the area will see and the possible chance of thunderstorms.Heavy rain will be seen late morning Wednesday with it dissipating by the evening.

Jones

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Forecasters: Herion, Jones

Date Issued: 2/20/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

We decided to go with the NAM 12 for our forecast today due to its accuracy of surface conditions. We will also confer with the NBM and GFS for temperature projections. The SREF will be consulted for rainfall totals along with model soundings. The focus of our forecast is the low pressure system that is expected to come into mid-Missouri on Wednesday.

Westerly flow will be the trend for Monday and Tuesday as a Low builds off the coast of Baja California. Throughout the early parts of our forecast period, the low will travel through the desert Southwest before passing through mid-Missouri on Wednesday. Divergence signatures are strong with the passage of this system with the strongest appearing Wednesday afternoon. A Jet streak is will stay over Columbia throughout the forecast period as it will be the fuel that brings the low up to Missouri.

In the mid levels, vorticity signatures are strong throughout the forecast period. Because of the Clipper that is going through Minnesota this week, some vorticity signatures have made their way down to mid-Missouri along with moisture late Monday evening. It could bring trace amounts of rainfall Monday evening. Our next wave of moisture begins to form by Wednesday morning before the front arrives. Omega values match up with the 500 MB moisture for Wednesday along with Vorticity. Moisture at the 700 MB level also lines up with moisture at the 500 mb level. There is ample Warm Air Advection as well with the front.

At the lower levels, moisture is in sync with the upper levels. Southerly winds will continue to transport moisture from the gulf before the arrival of the front. This should continue to warm up as the week continues. A strong lower level jet will continue to bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico bringing our 850 dewpoints into the teens. There will be complete saturation Wednesday afternoon. This is when we expect to see most of our rainfall. To forecast the timing of this system, we consulted model soundings.

Model soundings continue to show saturation at the lower levels during Wednesday morning. This is when the rain will start. Throughout the day, CAPE is present but Total Totals show chances of thunderstorms. As of now, we do not expect any severe weather with this system but we do expect an occasional thunderstorm throughout Wednesday. The rain will last through the end of our forecast period ending in the evening on Wednesday. Model runs show rainfall accumulations of .75 to an inch of rain with the NBM showing totals closer to an inch. SREF runs show totals falling closer to the .75 inch total. We predict totals to be within the range of .75 to an inch of rainfall for Wednesday.

Temperatures will continue their warming trend as westerly and southerly winds should bring temps into the 60s through our forecast period. The high on Wednesday will be dependent on winds and the timing of rainfall. Future shifts should continue to monitor the totals of rain as a slight movement of the low could bring higher rainfall totals southward to mid-Missouri. If this occurs, we could see the potential for higher rainfall totals.

 

-Herion

  

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low:30

Saturday: Cloudy. High:50

Saturday Night: Decreasing clouds, with scattered sprinkles. Low:36


 

Sunday: Increasing clouds. High:56

 

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low:  35

 

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Discussion: 

Above average temps should carry into the weekend, with a chance for drizzle Saturday night. Otherwise, a rather normal weather weekend seems ahead of us.


Thomas

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Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/17/2023 4:30 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

    Conditions at the start of this forecast are stable with visible satellite imagery shows a clear sky over the CWA at the time of this forecast shift. Observed surface winds are out of the southwest as of Friday 21Z. The 12Z run of the GFS is used for this forecast due to its accurate temperature readings across the CWA as well as accurate positioning of frontal gradients across the Dakotas and Canada. This forecast will focus on the chance for light rain on Saturday night.

    300mb winds are zonal over the CWA until a shortwave passes from the west bringing in a small jet streak to the south with maximum winds of 135 knots on Sunday 03Z. Small amounts of upper-level divergence will accompany this shortwave as well, which could supply a small amount of lift. Another, larger jet streak then approaches from the west Sunday 18-21Z with winds of 180 knots at maximum.

    Winds at 500mb reflect the same zonal flow until a shortwave passes overhead on Saturday 21Z adding a southwesterly component. A wave of high vorticity values passes over from Saturday 21Z to Sunday 21Z. This is followed by another band of vorticity on Monday 06Z.

    700mb winds transition to a more zonal flow as the trough exits the CWA. They then shift to a more southerly component as the shortwave enters the CWA on Saturday 18Z. Relative humidity values approach 98% with trace amounts of upward vertical velocity providing a weak amount of lift on Sunday 03Z Another wave of moisture with similar amounts of vertical velocity will pass through on Monday 06-12Z.

    850mb winds are zonal from Friday 21Z to Saturday 18Z. They then switch to a southerly component. A small area of high RH passes from the southwest on Sunday 03Z. Small amounts of WAA are present until Saturday 21Z. Another, larger wave of WAA passes over from the west Sunday 06-15Z. Solenoids formed at the surface in combination with a southerly wind indicate small amounts of WAA Sunday 03-12Z.

    GFS model soundings show saturation in the upper levels on Sunday 06Z, but with a dry layer near the surface and nearly no upward lift, eliminating any chance for heavy rainfall or convection. Any precipitation that would reach the ground would be light. Surface high temperatures are trending slightly above the seasonal average for this area with highs breaking into the upper fifties compared to the average of 46 degrees Fahrenheit for Saturday and Sunday. This may be due to more southerly wind components brought on by shortwaves advecting warmer air into the region.

-Sausen

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 37





Friday Night: Clear. Low: 28





Saturday: Increasing clouds. High: 52


 

Saturday Night: Chance for light rain, then clear. Low: 34

 

 

Sunday: Increasing clouds. High: 59

 

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Discussion: 

Following the passage of a cold front overnight, temperatures are expected to remain in the 30s today. But the cold is not here to stay; this weekend will warm up into the 50s, brought to us by southerly winds. This is a great weekend to get outside, full of sunshine and a clear sky, with the exception of Saturday night, as clouds roll in along with the chance for light rain. This precipitation will be very light with little to no impacts as it falls late Saturday evening. We'll even get a hint of spring as temperatures reach 59 degrees on Sunday!


Sallot

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Forecasters: Sallot, Allen, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/17/2023 10:30 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend are temperature shifts that are above average for this time of year and a chance of light rain Saturday night. The NAM and GFS were both used for the bulk of this forecast however, the GFS was more in line with the prediction of light rain on Saturday night.

At 250mb there is a positively tilted trough that moves out of MO throughout Friday afternoon, with a ridge with meridional flow moving into MO. There is also a jet streak that moves into MO at about Sunday 3z that reaches 150kt that trails behind some increased wind divergence. At the end of the forecast period at Mon 0z the jet streak over MO reaches as high as 185kt.

While the positively tilted trough moves out of MO at 500mb, it takes with it 2 large bands of vorticity that reach from northern TX to the Great Lakes at about Friday 21z. The meridional flow that we saw at 250mb continues to move through MO until about 0z on Sunday, which is when we see a short wave, along with increased vorticity, come in from KS and OK.

At 700mb the atmosphere is dry over MO until Sunday 3z when we see some moisture move throughout the state until about Sunday 9z. After this time period this layer of the atmosphere is dry until the end of the forecast period. From Friday 15z until Saturday 21z there is WAA that will help to increase our Saturday high, and again Sunday 3z to 12z to get us in the upper 50’s.

At 850mb there is some WAA moving across MO Friday 18z. This, along with the southerly wind from  large high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern states, will help to increase our temperatures to above freezing Friday afternoon and into the 50’s Saturday and Sunday. The atmosphere is dry until Sunday 3z when moisture quickly moves into our region and then quickly moves to the northeast. This, along with the moisture at 700mb at this same time, indicates a chance of light rain early Sunday morning.

At the surface, there is a change in wind direction on Friday 21z in MO from the northwest to the southwest. This is due to the high-pressure system over the TX, AR, LA region that creates a return flow from the Gulf. At Sunday 3z the GFS indicates some light rain over the forecast region, this is supported by the short wave seen at 500mb at this time and the moisture at 700mb and 850mb at this time. However, due to the atmosphere being dry besides short time period from 3z to about 6z it is likely that only trace amounts will reach the surface.

-Allen