Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Tuesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low: 58-62

 

 

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy until late afternoon. Then, clearing begins. 

High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clouds continue to decrease. Clear skies after 

midnight. Low: 52-56

Thursday - Sunny. High: 76-80

          

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 56-60

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Discussion:

Today, MU hit a high of 75 with a clear morning, turning into mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Clouds continue to

increase overnight out in front of Tropical Depression Beta that has made landfall in SE Texas. Cloud cover will keep

temperatures warmer tonight and highs tomorrow similar to what we saw today. Precipitation associated with Beta

is not expected to move northward enough to provide rain for Mid-MO. Skies clearing late on Wednesday create a 

cooler evening, before warming up the lower atmosphere on Thursday. A warmer Thursday afternoon will allow for

a warmer low temperature Thursday night despite skies remaining clear.

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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 22 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 This forecast was generated from a general model blend of the 18Z GFS, NAM, and SREF. The main focus of our

forecast period in Mid-MO is the effects of Tropical Depression Beta as it has made landfall in Texas today.

 

For the past several days in the Midwest, weather has been very fall-like and calm. Temperatures have been in the

lower to middle 70s with clear skies as we sit under a very zonal pattern in the upper atmosphere. Tropical

Depression Beta looked to threaten these conditions, but as it is not extremely stacked vertically, the jet stream

can help Beta fall apart as it moves further inland. This will also help Beta move in its more easterly track as it 

merges with the zonal flow that engulfs the central CONUS.

 

Surface winds in Columbia have now shifted out of the south as a anticyclone over Kentucky continues to move east. 

This would suggest stronger moisture advection, as well as soundings indicating veering winds and WAA. However, 

this is really only valid for the lowest 200-mb of our atmosphere. Above 700-mb, moisture is very minimal, and 

northerly winds are prevalent. We expect these winds to help keep saturation from occurring higher AGL, but a 

low-level cloud deck is likely to stick with us through most of Wednesday, as it has already started to form overhead.

This cloud cover will not allow for radiation to wander too far from the surface tonight, and in turn, not allow

temperatures to cool too much overnight. We don't expect these clouds to cool us down tomorrow since dry conditions

above us will help clouds clear out starting tomorrow afternoon. This will allow for long wave radiation to exit the

surface and cooler temperatures to engulf us tomorrow night. Lots of sunshine will provide warmer temperatures

into Thursday and slightly warmer temperatures overnight into Friday.

 

Future forecasters should keep an eye on the continued track of Beta, but at this point, it doesn't look too likely that

we will see anything other than cloud cover from it. As the clouds move east, it would also be prudent to watch for a

larger warm-up through the end of this week. The SREF was suggesting temperatures near 80 on Thursday, so this

would be something to watch.

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 72-76

Tuesday Night - Becoming overcast. Patchy fog possible late. Low: 54-58

Wednesday - Cloudy. Patchy fog possible early. High: 70-74

Wednesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 52-56

 

 

           

Thursday - Sunny. High: 76-80

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Discussion:

 Today's weather will be mostly cloudy because of tropical storm Beta. Temperatures remain similar to the last few days. Overnight, temperatures rise thanks to an overcast sky deck. Some patchy fog may develop late Tuesday night and last through early Wednesday morning. Clouds remain with us Wednesday into Wednesday night as Beta passes to our southeast. Similar conditions produce consistent temperature from Tuesday night. By Thursday morning, all of our cloud cover will have exited the area, leaving us with abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 22 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 This forecast was made generally using the 6Z GFS, keeping in mind tropical storm Beta and its influences on our forecast area.

 

At present, upper level flow across the Midwest is weak and zonal. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the trend of weak flow 

continues, with the only feature of note being Tropical Storm Beta, which is currently centered over the gulf coast of Texas, but 

its associated cloud cover expands all the way into Missouri. This feature will have the greatest influence on our weather over the 

next 36 hours.

Currently, tropical storm Beta has made landfall in Texas along the Gulf of Mexico. With the GFS continuing to advertise weak 

and zonal 300- and 500-hPa flow flow over the CONUS, there will be very little to interfere with Beta's advancing cloud shield. 

As a matter of fact, as Beta moves northward, an offshoot disturbance and associated 500-hPa shortwave trough will develop. 

In addition, the GFS solution suggests that 700-hPa moisture carried with this system will push northeast into the southern 

half of Missouri from Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This will help to build a thick cloud deck overhead, but precipitation 

chances appear to confined well to our south. GFS Skew-T's also indicate saturation in the lowest 150 hPa late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with very little wind,  suggesting that some patchy fog may form around town during that period. The moisture stays with us as Beta passes to our southeast and the shortwave moves east during the day Wednesday, meaning that clouds will remain throughout the day. Finally, by Wednesday evening, Beta will have passed to our east, taking our cloud cover with it, leaving us with clear skies by Thursday morning.

Temperatures throughout the period should not fluctuate too significantly from day to day. With cloud cover around today, we will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Wednesday will be slightly cooler because of the thicker clouds. Thursday should be much warmer because of the abundant sunshine. Overnight lows should be similar both nights, both in the low- to mid-50s.

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

Monday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 54-58

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 72-76

Tuesday Night - Becoming overcast. Low: 54-58

Wednesday - Cloudy. An isolated shower is possible. High: 70-74

Wednesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 52-56

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Discussion:

 While tomorrow is the first day of fall, today's weather was very autumn-like. Temperatures were in the mid-70s with little to no cloud cover. However, the next few days will be dependent on the path of Tropical Storm Beta. We expect at the very least a lot more cloud cover ahead of this system, but at this point, temperatures don't look to change too much. The path of Beta further inland is still uncertain, but we could potentially see rain showers from this on Wednesday if enough moisture is funneled into Mid-MO.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons, McGuire

Issued:  5 PM CDT 21 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 This forecast was generated from a general model blend of the 18Z NAM and GFS, but the main focus for this 

forecast period was on the track of the slow-moving Tropical Storm Beta about to make landfall on the Gulf coast

in Texas.

 

 Currently, the CONUS is under zonal flow, and the eastern U.S. is being influenced by a anticyclone over the NE.

As this anticyclone continues to move to the NE, Columbia is seeing SE winds, and that has allowed temperatures

to warm up from the upper 60s on Saturday to the middle 70s this afternoon. Calm weather has engulfed most of 

the eastern CONUS, but the slow movement of T.S. Beta is set to disrupt this.

At this point, T.S. Beta's track is still uncertain, as it has not made landfall in Texas yet. The NHC suggests a more

easterly path as the cyclone weakens and moves inward with the LLJ over the southern CONUS. If that were to 

occur, Mid-MO wouldn't see any rain. However, if it's path shifts northward, we could see more moisture advected

into Columbia which would help us reach saturation at more significant heights. Skew-T's for Tuesday and

Wednesday suggest saturation near 850mb which would be indicative of low-level clouds ahead of Beta, but dry 

conditions exist higher in the atmosphere. Skew-T's also suggest veering winds as this system inches closer to us,

so this could lead to WAA which would assist moisture advection at this time. Either way, models suggested increased

cloud cover ahead of Beta, and this will lead to slightly warmer nighttime temperatures and slightly cooler daytime

temperatures. Low temperature are expected to cool heading into Wednesday night as clouds exit the region, allowing

for radiation to effectively rise in the atmosphere and clear out.

Future forecasters need to monitor the track of T.S. Beta, because a more northern track would allow for higher

confidence in rain for the middle of the week. The track will most likely be more well-known after Beta makes 

landfall, which is expected to be tomorrow. The timing of its landfall could also impact the timing of the increased

cloud cover that we expect in Mid-MO.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

Monday - Sunny. High: 74-78

 

Monday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 54-58

 

Tuesday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 72-76

Tuesday Night - Becoming overcast. Low: 54-58

Wednesday - Cloudy. An isolated shower is possible. High: 70-74

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Discussion: Coming off of a refreshingly beautiful weekend, similar weather can be expected today. Sunny skies and near-normal temperatures will go far in brightening this Monday. Beginning tonight, however, we will begin to experience increasing cloud cover as the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta draw near. Expect high clouds to build in tonight and persist through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the cloud cover should thicken as Beta's remnant low pressure center makes its closest pass to mid-Missouri. We may even see some isolated showers out of this, although it appears at this time that if there were to be rain, it would be of short duration and light intensity. Because of increasing clouds early this week, temperatures will be slightly cooler each day, but they still will be pleasant.

 

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Forecaster: Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 21 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

Welcome back, everyone! 

 

The main issue in forecasting for this period is the behavior of the remnants of T.S. Beta and their potential impacts on

 mid-Missouri. The GFS was used for this forecast as it has done well in handling Beta.

 

Currently, there is very little to speak of occurring over central Missouri. Upper-level flow has been zonal and quite weak  

over the past couple of days, and there has been no moisture or moisture advection at the lower levels of the atmosphere. 

Additionally, the winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere have been weak and significantly varied in direction, so 

there has been no clear thermal advection in the past couple of days either. This resulted in mostly clear skies throughout 

the weekend, with nearly the same afternoon high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. Per WPC surface analysis, a 

weak cold front stretches from central Colorado up through the eastern Dakotas, but this front has hardly moved in the 

past 24 hours, and it will have no bearing on this forecast. T.S. Beta is also currently positioned off the coast of Texas. 

This storm is expected to move inland by tonight, and this feature will have some influence on our weather as it moves 

into the south-Central US this week.

 

 Looking ahead to the period Monday through Wednesday, the overall weather will become a bit more active in response to 

the remnants of T.S. Beta. Flow at 300 hPa will remain weak and zonal, but an offshoot disturbance from Beta will create a 

shortwave trough and generate a vorticity maximum at 500 hPa over southern Missouri Tuesday, which will deepen and 

move east Wednesday. Per GFS Skew-T's, the initial development of this shortwave trough should cause high clouds to build 

in as early as overnight tonight. As the trough deepens into Wednesday, this should introduce better low level moisture into 

the region by Wednesday, as evidenced by increasing 700-hPa and 850-hPa moisture forecasted by the GFS during this time 

frame. This will result in lowering clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday, low level moisture looks healthy 

enough to support some drizzle/light rain showers during the day. The better chances for widespread rain and higher rainfall 

totals look to be confined to southern Missouri at this time.

 

As for temperatures, due to abundant sunshine and southerly surface winds, today should be the warmest day of the period, 

with a high temperature in the upper 70s. As cloud cover generally increases each day this week, each day will be a couple 

degrees cooler than the previous. Given both nights during this period will have similar cloud cover, similar low temperatures 

in the mid- to upper-50s can be expected both nights.