Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 72-76

Tuesday Night - Becoming overcast. Patchy fog possible late. Low: 54-58

Wednesday - Cloudy. Patchy fog possible early. High: 70-74

Wednesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 52-56

 

 

           

Thursday - Sunny. High: 76-80

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Discussion:

 Today's weather will be mostly cloudy because of tropical storm Beta. Temperatures remain similar to the last few days. Overnight, temperatures rise thanks to an overcast sky deck. Some patchy fog may develop late Tuesday night and last through early Wednesday morning. Clouds remain with us Wednesday into Wednesday night as Beta passes to our southeast. Similar conditions produce consistent temperature from Tuesday night. By Thursday morning, all of our cloud cover will have exited the area, leaving us with abundant sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 22 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 This forecast was made generally using the 6Z GFS, keeping in mind tropical storm Beta and its influences on our forecast area.

 

At present, upper level flow across the Midwest is weak and zonal. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the trend of weak flow 

continues, with the only feature of note being Tropical Storm Beta, which is currently centered over the gulf coast of Texas, but 

its associated cloud cover expands all the way into Missouri. This feature will have the greatest influence on our weather over the 

next 36 hours.

Currently, tropical storm Beta has made landfall in Texas along the Gulf of Mexico. With the GFS continuing to advertise weak 

and zonal 300- and 500-hPa flow flow over the CONUS, there will be very little to interfere with Beta's advancing cloud shield. 

As a matter of fact, as Beta moves northward, an offshoot disturbance and associated 500-hPa shortwave trough will develop. 

In addition, the GFS solution suggests that 700-hPa moisture carried with this system will push northeast into the southern 

half of Missouri from Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This will help to build a thick cloud deck overhead, but precipitation 

chances appear to confined well to our south. GFS Skew-T's also indicate saturation in the lowest 150 hPa late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with very little wind,  suggesting that some patchy fog may form around town during that period. The moisture stays with us as Beta passes to our southeast and the shortwave moves east during the day Wednesday, meaning that clouds will remain throughout the day. Finally, by Wednesday evening, Beta will have passed to our east, taking our cloud cover with it, leaving us with clear skies by Thursday morning.

Temperatures throughout the period should not fluctuate too significantly from day to day. With cloud cover around today, we will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Wednesday will be slightly cooler because of the thicker clouds. Thursday should be much warmer because of the abundant sunshine. Overnight lows should be similar both nights, both in the low- to mid-50s.