Monday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66
Tuesday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66
Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 46-50
Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76
With rain departing mid-Missouri this morning, we are left with a positively pleasant forecast. Heading out the door this morning, there was definitely a fall chill in the air as a cold front pushed through the region yesterday. With northerly winds and partial cloud cover remaining from yesterday's system, today should be a cool but beautiful day with highs in the mid-60s. Tonight will be the coldest night this area has experienced since Spring, with lows in the mid-40s. Tuesday should be pretty close to a carbon copy of today, but as winds shift from northerly to southwesterly overnight Tuesday night, much warmer air will move into central Missouri. Clouds will largely clear out as well, leaving us with a warm and sunny Wednesday.
The biggest concerns with this forecast will be cloud cover Monday through Tuesday night, and temperature changes between Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS was used as primary guidance for this forecast, supplemented by SREF plumes.
This morning, clouds and rain associated with the cold front that pushed through central Missouri yesterday have moved well off to our East. Behind this feature, an upper-level trough was digging into the central CONUS. Mid-level moisture was present near the front stretching from Louisiana into Ontario and across the upper-Midwest in the vicinity of the upper-level low. Low-level winds were out of the north/northwest. These winds were quite strong, too, with speeds AOA 40 kts at 850 hPa. At the surface, temperatures were cool, only in the 50s, with light northwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover.
As we progress through the day today and into tomorrow, the GFS guidance suggests that the upper-level trough will continue to dig down into the central CONUS. As it does this, there may be one or more small, fast-moving disturbances that push through our area. Each disturbance will likely bring some cloud cover with it, but, per GFS Skew-T's, it looks like the air near the surface is too dry to support even a sprinkle from this system. Overall, between now and Tuesday evening, there will be plenty of sunny time, but also plenty of cloudy time as well. Because these disturbances are moving so quickly, the cloudy periods will not last long; therefore, I have opted to use "periods of sun and clouds" or "variable amounts of cloud cover" to most accurately address the forecast sky conditions over the next 36 hours. By Tuesday night, it looks like much of our cloud cover will exit, and we will be left with mostly sunny skies by Wednesday.
As for temperatures, because periods of clouds are expected today along with winds backing from NW to SW with height, I only expect afternoon highs to reach the mid-60s. Because tonight will be the first night after a cold fropa, overnight lows will be in the mid-40s, some of the coldest we've experienced in months. Tomorrow looks almost exactly like today in terms of wind direction and cloud cover, so I expect afternoon highs tomorrow will be very similar to today's. Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds should shift to the SW, with some veering in the lowest 150 hPa of the atmosphere. This would be indicative of WAA, and with the clouds clearing out, I do expect a much warmer day on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-70s.
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