Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 54-58 

 

 

Friday - Clear. High: 80-84

 

 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

 

 

Saturday - Clear. High: 86-90

 

 

Sunday - Skies becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon. High: 74-78

 

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Discussion:

Calm and clear weather will continue to end off our work week and into the weekend. The Tigers' home opener against Alabama will likely be played underneath clear skies in more summer-like temperatures. High pressure will dominate the region giving us this warmer than average weather for the start of fall. This won't stick around for long though as we are already looking at the approach of our next low-pressure system into Sunday afternoon. With it will come much more fall-like temps and the potential for showers.

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Forecaster: Nixon, Cochran, Travis

Issued:  6:30 PM CDT 24 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Much the same to talk about in terms of flow regime. Another persistence governed forecast will see mainly sunny skies for the start of our weekend with the main focus on a system moving in by Sunday afternoon. The 12z GFS was used alongside the SREF and GEFS ensemble plumes. SREF had a poor handle on FROPA timing Sunday afternoon, so disregarded it for Sunday temps.

High pressure has set up over the Midwest. As the shortwave seen at 250 hPa and 500 hPa associated with the now extra-tropical remnants of Beta continue to move off to the north and east, high pressure has already begun to set up behind it. GFS 500-hPa height and vorticity depicts ridging behind the exiting shortwave that will flatten to purely zonal flow over the central CONUS for much of the forecast period. GFS MSLP maps show two distinct high-pressure systems to the east of Missouri over the Ohio River Valley and one to the south over the Lower Mississippi Valley. These two anticyclones will work together to bring southwesterly to southerly winds for the next several days. With those winds will come unseasonably warmer air. Winds at 850 hPa from a more southwesterly direction will advect air originating from a much drier air mass. This will keep our skies clear and temps on the increase until the arrival of our next system on Sunday. Clear skies will also help radiational cooling drop overnight lows to be substantially lower than afternoon highs. 

A drastic shift in the flow regime Saturday night into Sunday morning will bring with it active weather. GFS 250-hPa heights and winds show zonal flow over the central CONUS breaking down as an amplified LW digs into the Midwest from Canada. The disturbance shows up will on 500-hPa height and vorticity with strong circulation disrupting the quiet pattern we will have been seeing for a few days at that point. GFS 700-hPa height and RH shows a wide band of mid-level saturation moving across the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Both plan-view MSLP maps with wind and soundings point to FROPA occurring between 15z and 18z on Sunday. Behind the front, northwesterly winds and CAA will bring in temperatures much closer to normal for this time of the year. GFS soundings show near complete saturation of the column as well beginning after 15z Sunday. Likely will just see steady rain from this system into Sunday evening, though a max of 451 J/Kg of CAPE suggests the possibility of some isolated convection embedded in a wider area of stratiform precip. Will defer to later shifts to see if the trend of instability continues in subsequent model runs.