Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 48-52

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny and windy. High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

 

Thursday - Mostly sunny and windy. High: 60-64

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 38-42

 

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Discussion: 

We saw a high of 66 this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will remain over us throughout the night helping to trap the warm air closer to the surface, leading to a warmer night. Clouds will clear out during Wednesday as a warm front pushes through the area, creating warmer conditions for tomorrow afternoon. However, a cold front follow right behind it and will cause chillier temperatures overnight into Thursday, when temperatures will be similar to what we saw today. Thursday night looks to be one of the coldest nights we've seen in a long time. This is due to the passing cold front and clear skies. Little to no moisture will be associated with either of these fronts.

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Forecaster: Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  5 PM CDT 29 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was created through a general model blend from the 12Z NAM and GFS, supplemented with the SREF and GEFS plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is a very brief warm-up expected tomorrow.

Today, we reached a high in the mid 60s as breezy conditions persisted. Mid-MO is still dealing with the effects of the low pressure system currently over eastern Canada with a moisture-filled cold front stretching south. This system brought us much-needed rain on Sunday, as well as a drop in temperatures about 5-10 degrees below average for the end of September. A prominent trough at 250mb continues to encapsulate most of the eastern CONUS as we've been dealing with meridional flow aloft. The low is continuing to provide a larger pressure gradient over Missouri, providing those windy conditions at the surface and cooler temperatures from the northwestern direction of the winds on the backside of the low.

Our focus is now shifting to the occluded system that sits just to our north. A warm front is expected to stretch south and force winds to veer with height. WAA is expected across Mid-MO overnight, but moisture is not associated with these systems. Very dry air exists to our west, so moisture and even cloud cover is not particularly expected during this time period (unlike the cold front we saw Sunday). Cold FROPA is expected to occur within 18 hours of the warm FROPA tonight, and this sudden shift in winds will also cause our stronger wind gusts to persist. Since the atmosphere looks dry from the ground up Wednesday through Thursday, temperatures will be much cooler, especially Thursday night, as that is expected to be our first full clear night after cold FROPA. Future forecasters should monitor the magnitude of the blast of cold air expected behind tomorrow's cold front. We decreased temperatures slightly from what previous forecasters wrote, but we could potentially see some more below-average temperatures as we begin the month of October.