Wednesday Night - Becoming clear. Low: 52-56
Thursday - Clear skies. High: 76-80
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 56-60
Friday - Clear. High: 82-86
Saturday - Clear skies. High: 86-90
Discussion:
The fall equinox may have been yesterday, but it sure won't feel like fall for the latter half of this week and into our weekend. As the remnants of Beta move off to the south and east of Columbia, a high-pressure system will set up in its place bringing in warmer air from the south and west. This will keep our skies clear and our temperatures well above average. Drier air from the southwest will keep our skies clear. Would not be surprised to see some more hazy conditions from the wildfires out west. Regardless, it should be a beautiful start to the weekend (especially for summer lovers)!
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Forecaster: Clemons, Travis
Issued: 5:00 PM CDT 23 September 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Not much in the way of active weather is anticipated for this forecast period. The main focus for this period is the unseasonably warm temperatures that will kick off the weekend. Went primarily with the 12z GFS with emphasis on SREF Plumes for narrowing down the temperatures. Good consensus between GFS and SREF and a quiet forecast governed by persistence yield above average confidence.
Looking at the large scale flow at 250 hPa for the NH, the post-tropical remnants of Teddy being absorbed into a LW trough sitting of the east coast of New England and Newfoundland will keep steering the remnants of Beta well to the south of mid-Missouri. Save for the upper-level cloudiness over the region seen on GOES VIS imagery tropical moisture will stay to the south according to GFS 700-hPa relative humidity. As Wednesday progresses into the evening, Beta's remnants will pick up speed and move off to the south and east taking the upper-level cloudiness with it. GOES VIS shows a steady decrease in cloud cover over Missouri since sunrise Wednesday morning. As skies clear Wednesday night, winds will continue to stay relatively calm and allow for decent radiational cooling. Resulting overnight temperatures will dip cooler than they have been the past couple days with lows potentially bottoming out in the lower 50s.
Behind Beta, GFS 500-hPa depict high pressure setting up over the Lower Mississippi Valley putting Missouri in southwestern flow at 850 hPa to the SFC. This will allow for the advection of warm, dry air from the west to filter into the Midwest. GFS plots of 250-hPa heights and winds indicate zonal flow persisting into the weekend. A zonal flow regime in the upper levels, reflected by a surface anticyclone to the south of the region will mean an extended period of quiet and unseasonably warm weather for the first several days of fall. By Saturday night into Sunday the GFS hints at a disturbance at 500 hPa propagating northeast from Mexico/Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a LW trough wants to dig into the Upper Midwest. Future shifts should pay close attention to how these two systems will impact the start of next week.
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