Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66
Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 46-50
Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76
Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46
Thursday - Mostly sunny. High 58-62
Discussion:
Like yesterday, today will have similar temperatures and clearer skies during the afternoon. Tuesday night the temperature dips down into the upper-40s with a few clouds moving into mid-Missouri. Temperatures rise Wednesday due to a warm air mass filling in the area. Wednesday night, a cold front will push through the area, reinforcing the colder Canadian air mass and forcing the warm air mass to depart. This will result in temperatures dropping into the low- to mid-40s overnight Wednesday. Thursday, temperatures will follow similar trends to Wednesday night with cooler high temperatures near 60. We remain dry for the duration of the forecast period.
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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter
Issued: 10 AM CDT 29 September 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
For this forecast period, our Primary concern was determining surface temperatures, especially on Wednesday. We used a
blend of the NAM and GFS, supplemented by SREF plumes to help us get a better handle on temperatures.
Currently, mid-Missouri is under the influence of a deep upper-level trough. The moisture in the mid-levels and low-levels of the
atmosphere that brought us a good deal of cloud cover yesterday has departed. Northerly/Northwesterly flow at the low levels of
the atmosphere continues from yesterday, though the near-surface winds have weakened. At the surface, with mostly clear skies
and northwesterly winds, we experienced the coldest night of the season thus far last night, and we will continue to experience
below-avergae temperatures today.
As we look ahead to the next few days, we will experience large temperature swings from day to day. Per the model blend, the
upper-level trough that is overhead currently is expected begin to modulate to the east this afternoon, departing the region entirely
by Wednesday morning. Mid-level moisture will be non-existent, and lower-level flow will shift from northwesterly to
southwesterly by early Wednesday morning as well. This will allow the warm airmass over the southwestern CONUS to build
into the region on Wednesday. Therefore, temperatures should remain cool today, with afternoon highs nearly mirroring those of
yesterday, but we should experience a significant warmup for Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening, however, the upper-
level trough is expected to once again deepen into the central CONUS, bringing with it a cold front and a reinforcing shot of cold
air, driving the warm airmass back in the southwestern CONUS. This cold front will still be devoid of any moisture, so it will pass
with very little fanfare. Low-level winds will shift back to northerly/northwesterly, further aiding in ushering in colder air.
Furthermore, Wednesday night and Thursday will be much cooler, with temperatures during those periods similar to, if not slightly
cooler than last night and today, respectively. Cloud cover looks to be a non-factor during this period, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.
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