Tuesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low: 58-62
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy until late afternoon. Then, clearing begins.
High: 72-76
Wednesday Night - Clouds continue to decrease. Clear skies after
midnight. Low: 52-56
Thursday - Sunny. High: 76-80
Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 56-60
Discussion:
Today, MU hit a high of 75 with a clear morning, turning into mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Clouds continue to
increase overnight out in front of Tropical Depression Beta that has made landfall in SE Texas. Cloud cover will keep
temperatures warmer tonight and highs tomorrow similar to what we saw today. Precipitation associated with Beta
is not expected to move northward enough to provide rain for Mid-MO. Skies clearing late on Wednesday create a
cooler evening, before warming up the lower atmosphere on Thursday. A warmer Thursday afternoon will allow for
a warmer low temperature Thursday night despite skies remaining clear.
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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons
Issued: 5 PM CDT 22 September 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
This forecast was generated from a general model blend of the 18Z GFS, NAM, and SREF. The main focus of our
forecast period in Mid-MO is the effects of Tropical Depression Beta as it has made landfall in Texas today.
For the past several days in the Midwest, weather has been very fall-like and calm. Temperatures have been in the
lower to middle 70s with clear skies as we sit under a very zonal pattern in the upper atmosphere. Tropical
Depression Beta looked to threaten these conditions, but as it is not extremely stacked vertically, the jet stream
can help Beta fall apart as it moves further inland. This will also help Beta move in its more easterly track as it
merges with the zonal flow that engulfs the central CONUS.
Surface winds in Columbia have now shifted out of the south as a anticyclone over Kentucky continues to move east.
This would suggest stronger moisture advection, as well as soundings indicating veering winds and WAA. However,
this is really only valid for the lowest 200-mb of our atmosphere. Above 700-mb, moisture is very minimal, and
northerly winds are prevalent. We expect these winds to help keep saturation from occurring higher AGL, but a
low-level cloud deck is likely to stick with us through most of Wednesday, as it has already started to form overhead.
This cloud cover will not allow for radiation to wander too far from the surface tonight, and in turn, not allow
temperatures to cool too much overnight. We don't expect these clouds to cool us down tomorrow since dry conditions
above us will help clouds clear out starting tomorrow afternoon. This will allow for long wave radiation to exit the
surface and cooler temperatures to engulf us tomorrow night. Lots of sunshine will provide warmer temperatures
into Thursday and slightly warmer temperatures overnight into Friday.
Future forecasters should keep an eye on the continued track of Beta, but at this point, it doesn't look too likely that
we will see anything other than cloud cover from it. As the clouds move east, it would also be prudent to watch for a
larger warm-up through the end of this week. The SREF was suggesting temperatures near 80 on Thursday, so this
would be something to watch.
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