Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

         

Friday - Clear skies. High: 82-86 

 

 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

      

Saturday - Clear. High: 86-90

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

 

 

Sunday - Skies becoming cloudy by noon. Rain likely later in the afternoon. High: 76-80

 

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Discussion:

Continued pleasant weather today and Saturday with a more summer like feel outside. Abundant sunshine and clear skies will continue today through Saturday night as the Alabama Crimson Tide invade Faurot Field to take on the Tigers tomorrow evening at 6PM. High temperatures in the upper 80's will warrant hydration for those venturing out to attend the contest. Sunday will mark a return to normal fall conditions as clouds encroach on central Missouri by noon and precipitation chances increase through the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected by Sunday evening with temperatures falling back into the upper 70's Sunday afternoon.

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Forecaster: Bongard

Issued:  9:44 AM CDT 25 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will give way to zonal flow over the Central Plains with jet streaking over the northern Rockies and the Dakotas Friday according to GFS modeling. Persistence forecasting continues to be the rule of the day as the region will experience tranquil weather over the next 48 hours. This is in response to a slow moving high pressure center over north central Texas that will develop and slowly trek into the ArkLaTex area through Saturday. Southwesterly flow on the northern flank of the high will advect slightly warmer air into central Missouri from west Texas and the Panhandles. Moisture will be hard to come by before 12Z Sunday as model soundings indicate a very stable atmosphere over the region as expected given the setup of high pressure over the Plains. 

A slight chance for fog both Saturday and Sunday morning exists though chances would be significantly greater save both the presence of stronger than normal wind conditions given the time of day. Both 12Z soundings from Saturday and Sunday promote southerly 10-12 knot flow over the region discouraging the chance for fog even though a very shallow radiation inversion exists both mornings. 

The high pressure center propagates east to our south this weekend and the western flank opens up the region to southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The region will experience a brief return to summer as temperatures climb into the upper 80's Saturday afternoon with slightly muggier conditions than what current observations are showing. 

The forecast question for this period will be when on Sunday the region experiences its first significant chance at rainfall for the first time in awhile. Model agreement depicts a long wave trough that begins to amplify across the northern Plains and Great Lakes Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A shortwave riding the flow will drag a finite region of vorticity into the Midwest by 15Z Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a long from northeastern Iowa down into central Kansas and begin to trek toward the forecast area. Clouds will be on the increase through Sunday with the potential for moderate rainfall late Sunday afternoon and evening as the forecast period comes to a close. Model soundings are presenting modest CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg and BRN's in the 50's prompting the SPC to place west central Missouri in a Marginal risk area for strong to severe thunderstorms with the highest risk being hail at this time. Increasing clouds and increasing precipitation chances will lead to more seasonal high temperatures Sunday.