Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Monday Night - Partly cloudy--passing clouds. Low: 42-46

 

 

Tuesday - Mostly sunny morning, partly sunny afternoon. High: 62-66

 

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 46-50

 

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 42-46

 

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Discussion: 

After the cold front passed through yesterday, today we saw much cooler temperatures

and windier conditions. Tonight we will see passing clouds and temperatures in the mid

40s as we still feel the effects from the cold front passage yesterday. Tuesday will look very similar to today until later in the evening, as winds start to shift out of the south and warm us up as we head into Wednesday. From these winds we expect to see drier conditions leading to clearer skies.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 28 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

We primarily used a general model blend from the 12Z NAM and GFS for this forecast, with help from the SREF and GEFS ensembles. The main focus for this time period is varying cloud cover and a warm-up in the middle of the week.

Yesterday, we saw a fairly strong cold front pass across the state, and it was associated with a lot of moisture and windier conditions due to a vertically stacked cyclone attached to it with a central pressure of 992mb. A much-needed rainfall was delivered to Mid-MO, but we are still experiencing effects from this large system today. Surface temperatures dropped to the mid 60s today as northerly winds gusting up to 20kts continued to funnel in cooler air. A larger pressure divide sits across Missouri from the backside of the aforementioned low pressure system, and this is causing winds to gust a bit higher. The jet stream at 250mb this morning showed a negatively-tilted trough that dug across the central CONUS, meaning that the front's effects were starting to weaken over Mid-MO, but tomorrow is expected to be another cooler day as the low moves further to the east.

A rather sudden shift in winds is forecasted for Tuesday evening, as Skew-Ts for this time show veering winds with height which suggests WAA. Looking at all heights, this air is coming from an area of dry conditions, so we don't expect moisture to advect towards us. Temperatures will soar into the mid 70s on Wednesday, but the WPC suggests another cold FROPA will occur later in the day--this one not associated with moisture. Winds start to back and advect cold air into Columbia as another trough tries to dive south into the central CONUS. Future forecasters should monitor the timing of this cold front--if it passes earlier on Wednesday, temperatures might not make it to the mid 70s.