Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Cloudy with a mix of freezing rain and snow. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Cloudy. Morning fog possible. Chance for afternoon rain. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers/storms possible. High: 50-54

Thursday - Cloudy with showers/storms possible. High: 46-50

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

Today, Mid-MO saw the first snow of the season with around an inch of accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Tonight, the wintry mix is likely to continue until we warm up slightly tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, we could see a chance of rain as temperatures warm into the 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will mostly dry until later Wednesday, where showers and even thunderstorms could be possible into Thursday.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 26 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated by a general model blend from the 18Z NAM, GFS, HRRR, and RAP, supplemented by the SREF and GEFS. We tried to look at the latest model runs of many models to see if there is continuity between them during the wet week ahead expected for Mid-MO. The main focus for this forecast period is the continuation of winter weather through the night and a few more rain chances expected in the next couple of days.

Winter weather made its first appearance of the season today. In Columbia, rain transitioned to sleet around 15Z and that transitioned to snow before 18Z today. It recently just transitioned back to sleet. Temperatures have dropped about 10 degrees F since midnight as a dominant high pressure system sitting over the central Great Plains funnels in a cold air mass to the Midwest. Northerly winds have gusted up to 20mph as we sit under a jet streak and to the east of a pronounced negatively tilted trough at 250mb. This is forecast to become a cutoff low within the next 24 hours and will likely impact our weather over the next few days. All of the models we looked at this afternoon had sufficient continuity for this system.

Soundings indicate saturation throughout the lower half of the troposphere all night long with temperatures straddling the freezing line. We are expected to dry up near sunrise tomorrow morning, but the surface temperature and dew point temperature will be so close together that this could create freezing fog/drizzle when the morning low is achieved tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s in the afternoon where saturation could be reached again, creating a chance for rain. This low-level cloud deck is expected to stay around through Tuesday and Wednesday, even when precipitation is not likely to reach the ground. 

A warm front is forecast to approach us on Wednesday, bring a warm & moist air mass with it. This could provide enough lift and instability to create weak thunderstorms. As this cold and warm air mass collide, the biggest threat would be hail forming in the updrafts up the supercooled air within these storms. We also have to monitor the track of the cutoff low from the west and Hurricane Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico. The cutoff low is expected to impact our rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, but future forecasters should watch for the impacts that could be created if/when Zeta and the cutoff low merge. These are both likely to keep moisture in Mid-MO during the middle of this week but probably not by the upcoming weekend.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Cloudy with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. High: 30-34

Monday Night - Cloudy with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Cloudy with a few showers possible. High: 40-44

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Cloudy with a few showers possible. High: 50-54

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

Winter makes an early appearance today with our first shot of frozen precipitation expected. Temperatures throughout the day today and into the overnight hours tonight will be sitting right around freezing, meaning that snow, sleet, and rain will be possible during this time. Accumulations, however, should remain below an inch. By Tuesday morning, temperatures should rise above freezing and remain above freezing through the rest of the period. As the low pressure system to our southwest begins to modify and move northeast, it will allow for a continued chance of light rain throughout the early part of the week while also aiding in ushering in some warmer temperatures.

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Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 26 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Our main issue for this forecast period is precipitation types today; more specifically, we are concerned about the timing and amounts of sleet and snow we may see today. The 06Z GFS was used as primary guidance for this forecast, with additional guidance provided by the 12Z RAP and SREF plumes to give us a better look at forecasted conditions today and tonight.

Currently, a 250-hPa jet streak extends from near the four corners region up into the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada, putting the center of the jet right over central Missouri. At 500 hPa, a trough was deepening to the west of the Rocky Mountains, shifting the flow over central Missouri from westerly to southwesterly. At 700 hPa, significant moisture was building into Missouri from Kansas and Oklahoma. 850-hPa temperatures over the northwestern half of Missouri were subfreezing, with light northerly flow noted at this height. At the surface, a frontal boundary was noted stretching across the far southern CONUS, with several areas of low pressure lined up along the front. Radar images from MZZU showed a precipitation shield overspreading much of Missouri, with the highest intensities between Interstates 44 and 70. Areas in and around Columbia have been seeing precipitation, mainly in the form of rain or sleet, since about 7 AM CDT. The temperature at Sanborn has been sitting right at 33F for the past couple of hours, allowing for this mix of precipitation types.

Today presents a very challenging forecast. The 06Z GFS shows the 250-hPa jet modifying such that winds right at the center of the jet between the Texas panhandle and southwestern Missouri will be weaker than the winds to the northeast and southwest of this region. Therefore, the GFS almost gives this the appearance of jet coupling over central Missouri, which would enhance upper-level divergence. The 500-hPa low should become cutoff over Utah/Arizona this afternoon, and as the trough elongates during this process, vorticity should be enhanced somewhat over central Missouri. Moisture should be abundant at 700 hPa throughout the day today. The GFS also suggests 850-hPa temperatures should remain slightly below freezing today with weak northerly flow, perhaps backing to the west by early evening. Using the top-down method of precipitation type forecasting in analyzing the GFS Skew-T's, it is clear that ice is introduced into the top of the cloud layer. GFS Skew-T's show a thermal inversion between 800 and 650 hPa, but this inversion is not very pronounced and remains near freezing at its warmest point. These Skew-T's also show surface temps below freezing. This would suggest purely snow, but being that rain and sleet were falling at the time of writing, this obviously isn't the case. Turning to RAP Skew-T's (the RAP having better resolution), the inversion layer is more pronounced, and surface temperatures are not as cold (still near freezing). Therefore, I believe the RAP has a better handle on this system, and with its inversion, it seems as though a transition to a sleet/snow mix can be expected by late morning. Temperatures at Sanborn, again, have been fixed at 33F for the past couple of hours, but with near surface backing winds shown by both the GFS and RAP, it should get cold enough in the next hour or two to better support frozen precipitation. Because of clouds and precipitation persisting into early Tuesday morning, temperatures should not change very much, if at all, during this timeframe, so sleet and snow will remain a possibility. Accumulations, however, should be quite light, owing to warm ground temperatures greater than 40F and rather light precipitation intensity.

By Tuesday morning, central Missouri should be right under the center of the 250-hPa jet. The 500-hPa low will become completely cutoff and will slowly move northeast, but it shouldn't get to Missouri before the end of the forecast period. It will, however, continue to disrupt the flow, keeping our weather unsettled. Low-level moisture will not be as easy to come by from Tuesday morning onward, but there will be enough to support continued cloud cover and perhaps a few showers from time to time Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday will not be able to warm much due to cloud cover and rain, but Columbia should get into the 40s by the afternoon. Wednesday is even warmer as the low draws warmer air into the region-afternoon highs should be in the 50s.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 30-34

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 48-52

Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Cloudy skies. Rain beginning overnight. High: 42-46

Monday - Cloudy. Rain transitioning to wintry mix, potentially transitioning to snow later in the day. High: 30-34

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

The cloudy skies we saw Friday will clear off later Friday night, giving us chilly low temperatures. Saturday will bring us more clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures, making the day perfect for the Mizzou football game. Clouds will begin to roll in Saturday night. Sunday will continue to be cloudy with rain starting around 10pm CDT. Monday will see this rain transition into a wintry mix after sunrise, which will have the potential to transition to snow later in the afternoon. Warm ground temperatures will ensure that any winter accumulations will stay below an inch.

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Forecaster: Orr, Ritter, Travis

Issued:  6 PM CDT 23 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

An active and uncertain forecast period is ahead of us this weekend and into early next week. The main focus of this period is the incoming precipitation Sunday night into Monday and what type of precipitation it will be. The NOMADS outage at NCEP means that the NAM was unavailable. As such the GFS and GEFS were mainly used for forecasting with comparisons to the ECMWF and Canadian for nailing down the potential for winter precip.

The GFS plots of 500-hPa heights and vorticity show that the shortwave which brought showers and thunderstorms to mid-Missouri has since moved off to the northeast. Large scale, upper-level flow behind the disturbance has turned zonal and remain so until the arrival of the next system. As such, high pressure will build in at the surface behind the surface cold front that continues to push to the SE. GFS shows winds at 850 hPa and lower will remain out of the NNE and keep our temperatures slightly below normal for late October with highs reaching into the upper 40s/50s. GFS soundings do show brief periods of partial saturation in the upper levels. The result will be mostly clear skies with some cirroform clouds through the day. Saturday night, GFS soundings show an increase in moisture in the lower levels as clouds move in ahead of the next system. This is supported by GFS plot of 700-hPa RH showing a southward surge of saturation from the Upper Midwest. 

Upper level flow shifts again by Sunday. GFS 500-hPa heights and vorticity show an amplified trough digging into the CONUS. By Sunday night and into Monday, Missouri sits at the inflection point of the trough ridge pattern, putting us in the ideal location for an active storm track. The amplified wave will allow a cold arctic air mass to penetrate into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A developing jet streak associated with the amplifying wave will develop and move in overhead providing ample upper-level dynamic support for a precip event. Consensus inside of the GEFS members all point to precip beginning late Sunday night around 03z as rain and eventually transitioning to a wintry mix by 09z to 12z Monday. Temperatures continue to drop Monday until the GFS favors a full transition to snow by 15z at the latest. Soundings support the GEFS members. Temperatures teeter on the edge of freezing, but keeps the wet-bulb temp well below 0. Above the surface, GFS soundings show that the rest of the profile remains well below freezing. 

Consensus outside of the GFS and its ensemble members breaks down. Unfortunately the NOMADS issues at NCEP have resulted in an outage of the NAM in our lab at the time of forecasting. Looked to the foreign models to compare with the GFS. The ECMWF keeps the cold air slightly to the north showing the 850-hPa 0C isotherm staying over southern IA and far northwestern MO. The Canadian outputs a solution in between the two extremes. It is slightly warmer than the GFS and slightly cooler than the Euro. The Canadian shows the surface freezing line passing over mid-Missouri near the end of the event, bringing a brief shot at wintry mix later in the evening Monday. 

Regardless of p-type. Precip sticks around in one form or another until Monday night at the end of our period. Seeing as how 2 in and 4 in soil temperatures at Sanborn field are 52 and 54 degrees respectively and how no models take surface temperatures too far below freezing, winter accumulations will most likely be below an inch. Would not be surprised to see a glaze of ice on elevated surfaces such as bridges or cars if freezing rain dominates.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday - Showers and thunderstorms early with temperatures falling through the day. Clearing by evening.

Friday Night - Clear and cold. Low: 30-34

Saturday -  Clear skies. High: 48-52

Saturday Night - Clouds developing late. Low: 36-40 

Sunday - Cloudy. Rain likely late afternoon. High: 46-50

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

Post frontal conditions leave falling temperatures and rain for our Friday. The rain will exit the area by afternoon and skies will clear tonight. There will be a Freeze Watch for Columbia tonight that could be converted to a Warning as temperatures are expected to fall to or slightly below the freezing mark. Game day for the Tigers on Saturday will be chilly despite sunshine in the afternoon with highs around 50F. Clouds will find their way back into the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the next front which will bring precipitation late Sunday afternoon. 

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Forecaster: McGuire, Ozdas, Bongard

Issued:  10 AM CDT 23 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Conditions as the start of the forecast period reflect the passage of a strong cold front between 08-09Z according to archived KCOU Metar data. Columbia Regional Airport reported a loss of about 4 degrees/hour temperature drop from 08-10Z with about a degree/hour drop from 10-13Z. The region has already achieved its high temperature for the day just before fropa and temperatures will continue to tumble through the day and evening. A Freeze Warning will go in effect this evening for portions of west and northwest Missouri as overnight lows will plunge into the mid-upper 20's. A Freeze Watch will go into effect for Boone County late tonight as temperatures in central Missouri are expected to drop as low as 30F overnight. Visible and IR satellite imagery shows a large swath of clouds and precipitation from eastern Canada down into north central Texas with radar imagery depicting a narrow line of developing showers and thunderstorms from northern Michigan down into southeast Missouri. For this forecast period we will use the GFS model as NAM data has not been updated since 06Z of 10/22.

The broad longwave trough that is draped over the northern portion of the CONUS from the Northern Rockies through the Great Lakes region that is responsible for dragging the cold front through the Midwest is housing a brisk 190+ KT jet core in its downstream flow. This places the forecast area in it's convergent right entrance region aiding the development of the aforementioned precipitation impacting Columbia this morning. The region will transition from a southwesterly flow to a zonal flow aloft by 00Z Saturday. Zonal flow will persist over the region through Saturday evening. Overnight Saturday night into Sunday the Polar jet streak extending from the northern Plains into New England will encounter coupling with a Subtropical jet streak reaching from the Desert Southwest into the Mid-South. This dynamic coupling will occur over the central Plains and the two jet streaks will merge just after the end of the forecast period. 

500-hPa vorticity this morning reveals not much in the way of circulation over Missouri though the frontal system has plenty of vorticity to play with over Texas and Arkansas. Vorticity values will remained confined to the north of the region as the flow becomes zonal for much of the forecast period. Vorticity will begin to advect back into mid-Missouri towards the close of the forecast period as a very dynamic and well amplified system begins to materialize to the northwest extending from the Mountain West northeastern into central Canada where the parent low pressure center will reside by Sunday evening. 

 Low-level model charts paint a very dynamic picture for the forecast period. High moisture values over the area this morning will quickly dry out as central Missouri settles into a postal frontal weather regime. Northwesterly winds will advect moisture away from Columbia and introduce colder temperatures this evening and tonight as high pressure builds in from the north-northwest prompting the Freeze Watches/Warnings for Missouri. This CAA will be short-lived as the region will again transition to a low-level southerly flow by mid-morning on Saturday. Temperatures and moisture in the column overhead will rebound just a bit as a result though 850-hPa wind speeds lack a significant LLJ through the period. By Sunday morning the region looks to be re-moistening slowly again ahead of the encroaching system from the northwest.

GFS model soundings expectedly show a moist profile this morning that will dry out from the top down as the cold front pushes further east and northwest flow takes over. Overnight soundings drop the low to near freezing in central Missouri as PWAT values bottom out near 0.3 inches. Southerly flow in the low-levels will advect some warm air into the region though easterly winds near the surface will undermine this effort and keep temperatures regulated at the surface. PWAT values will increase gradually to about 0.8 inches by the end of the period. The profile moistens up at 850-hPa and eventually higher up in the column and K-Index values struggle to reach 20 through 00Z Monday lending evidence to a cloudy Sunday before precipitation chances increase late Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation accumulations for the rainfall experienced at the start of the period are estimated to be 0.4 inches which is more on par with RAP estimates than the underwhelming GFS estimates at 0.15 inches. The remainder of the period will be dry until Sunday evening when GFS models depict the chances for more rainfall in mid-Missouri as the forecast period comes to a close. Current models show a chance for snow Sunday night into Monday.

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night - Becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Low: 54-58

Friday - Cloudy. Showers tapering off in the afternoon. Temperatures falling during the day. High: 50-54

Friday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Saturday - Mostly clear. High: 48-52

Sunday - Cloudy. Rain likely after noon. High: 50-54

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

After an unusually hot October Thursday, a cold front will pass through during the night dropping the temperatures and bringing storms that will last into Friday. After the front has passed, the skies will clear up Friday afternoon, and we will see considerably cooler temperatures than the day prior. Friday night skies will stay clear, with temperatures reaching near freezing. Saturday's forecast sees clear skies and seasonal temperatures. Sunday will see more clouds in the morning and precipitation towards the afternoon. Temperatures throughout the weekend hang out around the low 50's.

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Forecaster: Nixon, Cochran, Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 22 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main focus of this period is the big drop we will see in temperatures associated with a cold front moving in Thursday night. Due to an internet outage across the Mizzou campus on Thursday, went with a blend of the 00z GFS and 00z NAM. Used GEFS and SREF ensembles for temperature and QPF. 

Friday night, GFS and NAM plots of 500-hPa heights and vorticity an upper-level shortwave propagates down from the Upper Midwest. Southwesterly flow in the lower levels has already begun advecting plenty of moisture into the area ahead of the approaching system. Both models agree that the timing of cold fropa will occur close to 09z Friday morning. With it will come showers and thunderstorms as both models' soundings have moderate elevated instability setting up overnight. The NAM is more aggressive with instability showing close to 1500 J/kg of CAPE near the time of fropa. The GFS shows less with only ~600 J/kg. Regardless, both models depict more than enough instability for late October to support elevated convection. Due to the elevated nature of said convection, likely will stay below severe limits, but if the NAM has its way, locally strong storms could be possible. Consensus between the models breaks down in terms of timing of precip arrival. The GFS is quicker to achieve full saturation of the column closer to 03z while the NAM holds precip off until fropa occurs between 06z and 09z.

Showers linger into Friday afternoon with both model soundings' indicating precip will subside around or after 18z. By Friday evening, model soundings show a drying of the column as skies clear close to sunset. Friday night into Saturday will be chilly as it will be the first clear night post cold fropa. Ensemble members hint that temps could potentially fall into the lower 30s, but GFS and NAM plots of 850-hPa temperature show the 0C isotherm staying well to the north of central Missouri. 

Saturday sees much more seasonable weather for late October. Surface high pressure builds in behind Friday morning's cold front. Skies will remain clear save for possible few high cirrus clouds. Low-level, post frontal flow will stay out of the north and will keep our temperatures cooler in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Clouds move back in Saturday night ahead of a weak surface low-pressure system moving NE from the Central Plains. Low-level flow shifts out of the south allowing our temperatures Sunday to potentially get slightly warmer than Saturday. Moisture moves in as well as GFS soundings depict a saturating of the lowest 400 hectopascals. Expect showers to develop by Sunday after 18z and continuing into Sunday night.

Friday's shifts should look closely at how updated model guidance has changed from the outdated guidance we used due to the internet outage.

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy after sunset. Temps rising overnight. Low 58-62

Thursday - Partly cloudy. Breezy. High: 80-84

Thursday Night - Becoming cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late. Low 58-62                                    

Friday - Showers tapering off by late afternoon. Temps falling during the day. High: 52-56                

Saturday - Partly cloudy skies. High: 46-50

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

The roller coaster of temperatures continues this week. While highs for Wednesday afternoon only reached into the mid 50s, temperatures will be on the rise into Thursday after the passage of a warm front late Wednesday night. Thursday will see a brief shot clearer skies and unseasonably warm temperatures reaching into the low 80s. Clouds return Thursday night out ahead of a cold front that will blow through mid-Missouri late Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will bring with it chances for scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder possible. Showers look to exit the area by Friday afternoon giving way to more pleasant and seasonable weather to start the weekend.

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Forecaster: Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 21 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Another period of unsettled weather is in store for the region. The main focus for the period is yet another shot of unseasonably warm temperatures quickly beaten down by a cold front. Good consensus between the GFS and NAM on the timing of the warm front Wednesday night, and cold front Friday morning. As such, went with a blend of GFS and NAM and GEFS/SREF ensembles for temperatures and QPF.

Rap analysis loops of 700-hPa RH and LSX radar both show the bulk of the residual moisture exiting mid-Missouri to the NE. GFS and NAM plots of 250-hPa height and wind show the NH storm track just off to our north as a moderately weaker LW trough sits over south-central Canada intruding into the Upper Midwest. Both GFS and NAM keep the center of this LW and associated jet streak well to our north and should help keep cold air locked up with it. Wednesday night into Thursday both models show good consensus of a surface warm front passing between 03 and 05z Thursday. Low-level flow shifts out of the southwest as both models show a moderate southwesterly LLJ kicking up Thursday night into Thursday day. Temperatures will continue to rise throughout the night and WAA will dominate into Thursday afternoon. This is what will drive the above average temperatures. GFS soundings keep lower-level saturation throughout the day with moderate instability. As such expecting partly cloudy skies with mainly fair weather cumuliform clouds. 

Thursday night, the next system moves into the region. GFS and NAM 500-hPa heights and vorticity show the aforementioned longwave trough amplifying and digging further into the northern plains. Reflected at the surface is a mid-lattitude cyclone and prominent cold front moving through the area. GFS and NAM are in good agreement that cold fropa will occur between 06 and 09z. GFS soundings show increased saturation ahead of the front as skies become cloudy. By 09z GFS soundings show a full saturation of the column with moderate elevated instability (571 J/kg of MUCAPE). The NAM is much more aggressive, showing close to 1800 J/kg of MUCAPE and even moderate SFC based CAPE as well. Would not be surprised to see isolated stronger storms embedded in the stratiform precip. SREF ensemble shows a mean of ~1100 J/kg at the time of fropa with GEFS showing less (~600 J/kg). Severe weather still looks unlikely due to the lack of deep moisture and surfaced based instability. 

By Friday afternoon, model soundings dry out the column as precip exits the region. Behind the front, skies will partially clear, but model soundings never hint at a full clearing. Very cold air will stay locked up to the north as mentioned earlier and average temperatures and pleasant weather starts out our weekend as surface high pressure builds in.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers possible. High: 60-64

 

Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 58-62

                

Thursday - Sunny and windy. High: 80-84

 

 

Thursday Night - Clouds building. Low: 62-66

Friday -  Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. High: 48-52

 

 

                          

 

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Discussion: 

The weather rollercoaster continues throughout this forecast period. Similar to yesterday, today will be overcast and cooler, with slight chances of rain. Tonight the sky will finally clear, and the warming trend will begin with a higher low. Tomorrow will be an unseasonably warm day with stronger winds. Enjoy the warmer weather because it will move out as quickly as it moved in, as Friday will be as much as 30 degrees cooler with rain back in our forecast.

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9 AM CDT 21 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was built using the 06Z GFS model along with SREF plumes. The main focus for this forecast period will be the warm front passing through tonight followed by a cold front Thursday night, with chances of rain today and Friday.

A stationary front currently sits over southeast Missouri. Aided by the low level jet, it will move north as a warm front through Columbia starting around 18Z today. Relative humidity levels are high to the north of the front, and are responsible for the clouds and chances of precipitation we will experience today. This moisture will move away with the front overnight.

Thursday's temperatures will be warmer due to the wind shift to the southwest after the warm front passage. These southwesterly winds are stronger, about 15 knots because of a tighter pressure gradient at the surface. These conditions will change quickly as a cold front moves through Thursday night, bringing increased moisture levels with it. This increased moisture will bring clouds back into the area.

The timing of the frontal passage is still uncertain. Temperatures will begin to drop Thursday night, and continue to fall throughout the day Friday. Friday will be significantly cooler by nearly 30 degrees. Increased vorticity levels at the 500 mb level associated with the cold front passage will increase the chance of showers on Friday as well as a slight increase in the negative omega values providing lift. Again the timing of these showers and thunderstorms are still uncertain and will depend on how fast the front moves in and how fast the cold air behind it settles in. There is little model consensus as to when the front moves through, when the best chances for rain are, and just how cold the temperatures will be.