Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy with overnight showers. Low: 42-46.

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Showers ending in the afternoon. High: 55-59.

Thursday night - Partly cloudy. Low: 39-43.



 
Friday - Mostly cloudy with rain ending in the early afternoon. High: 56-60.



Saturday - Partly sunny with a chance for rain in the afternoon. High: 53-57. 

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Discussion: Trick or treaters might be advised to carry an umbrella with them if they are celebrating Halloween south of I-70. Chances of rain creep north heading towards evening hours in mid-Missouri. Periods of light rain will persist until early Thursday morning as the system makes its way eastward and out of the area. Highs stick in the upper 50's and we should stay dry for the remainder of the day and overnight on Thursday. Friday morning we see a chance of isolated showers due to a weak upper-level disturbance and limited available moisture. This fast moving system will pass rather quickly leaving us mostly cloudy for the rest of the day. Heading into the weekend we have more chances for rain that increase into Saturday night but first we will warm up to a high near 60.



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Forecaster: Azzara,Munley, Market, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 31, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 Chances of rain continue to show throughout the forecast period.  The cold front from yesterday is producing rain showers off to our south and east and chances of severe weather in eastern Texas and Louisana are aiding the transport of moisture up to Missouri bringing us a chance of light rain this evening.  With the potential of rain this evening into tomorrow morning, highs will struggle reaching only into the mid to upper 50s.  There will be little clearing occurring overnight Thursday on into Friday morning with lows reaching lower 40s.  Winds shift to a more southerly direction aiding in our chance for morning precipitation Friday and clouds persisting thoughout the day. Ahead of the cold front that will be moving through late Friday night early Saturday morning there is a slight increase in PWAT values. This slight increase in moisture will increase the chance of precipitation in the afternoon hours. Before the precipitation moves into the area on the back end of the cold front, there will be some sunshine in the morning hours.       

   

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy with overnight showers. Low: 46-50.

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 56-60.

Wednesday night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 42-46.

Thursday - Mostly cloudy. High: 56-60.

Friday - Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High: 53-57. 

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Discussion: 

The passage of the cold front tonight will bring showers to the area. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be much cooler as well through the end of the work week, so make sure to have a jacket handy for trick-or-treating. Showers look to return during the day Friday.   


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Forecaster:  Rojas, Brown, Market, Steward, and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 30, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

 The upper level shows the development of an elongated trough moving eastward and passing through our area during the mid-week. Behind the front conditions will be cooler and mostly cloudy, and soundings also show drier air near to surface which rules out chances of precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday.   Although, on Wednesday night precipitation cannot be completely ruled out as models indicates moisture and upward motion at 700 mb. Friday afternoon, we will be located in the upstream side of the trough, with higher vorticity at 500 mb and upper level divergence, which indicates lower level convergence.
Soundings valid Friday afternoon present a saturated profile, upward motion and a veering warm advection wind profile. Southwesterly winds will bring moisture into the area. The presence of a lower pressure system in Northwest MO will support the potential of precipitation. Will defer to later shifts to figure out possible rain amounts.  

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Will begin as clear, but clouds will move in as the night goes on. Low: 52-56.

Tuesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers. High: 66-70.

Tuesday night - Cloudy with overnight showers. Low: 46-50.

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 56-60.

Thursday - A mix of sun and clouds. High: 56-60. 

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Discussion: 
Clouds will move in and increase overnight. Temperatures will remain above average through Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon we expect showers to start with a cold front that moves in and lingers overnight. We will cool down behind the cold front to be near average temperature and will have clouds that linger leaving dreary skies until we see some sun on Thursday. Remember to have a rain jacket or umbrella on Halloween night. 

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Forecaster:  Johnston, Danaher, Brown, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., October 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A blend of the 12Z NAM, 00ZGFS, ECMWF and UKMET were chosen for this forecast period because of their continuity. Throughout this week, our location will be bombarded with multiple shortwaves. The 1st shortwave will strike tonight. The upper level jet stream will shift causing us to enter a divergent zone aloft. This will cause convergence below which means that Tuesday evening will most likely have showers since precipitable water is above 1 inch. Soundings show the possibility of scattered thunderstorms because CAPE values have shown to be above 1000J/kg according to the models. We also noticed that storms will mainly be behind the cold front lasting from 21Z Tuesday to 09Z Wednesday. Rain amounts vary from 0.2" to .4" is the model consensus with some models depicting more. Behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday, expect mainly cloudy skies and cold air advection. This should keep temperatures below average.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Sunny. High: 66-70.

Monday night - Will begin as clear, but clouds will move in as the night goes on. Low: 52-56. 

Tuesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers. High: 66-70. 

Tuesday night - Cloudy. Low: 46-50. 

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 56-60. 

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Discussion: Enjoy today's sunshine, because it won't be sticking around much longer. Mid-Missouri will see unseasonably warm temperatures today and clear skies, but clouds will move in overnight and keep things dreary over the next few days. Temperatures will stay warm tomorrow, but rain is expected over the course of tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will stay cloudy through Wednesday with cooler temps.

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Forecaster:  Carlson, Scroggins, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 9:30 a.m., October 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
We forecasted mostly using the NAM because the model diagnostics had it lining up better than the GFS. High pressure over the bootheel will keep our conditions sunny and warm today, but as that pressure system moves out, clouds will move in overnight. As it moves it off to the east, we will have southerly flow bringing in WAA allowing for warmer temperatures for today. A cold front will make its way through from the northwest around 00 UTC on Wednesday, bringing with it our only precipitation for the week. The atmosphere will be fairly dry aloft but moist at the surface, but as the rain moves through the atmosphere will become more saturated, followed by it drying up fairly quickly after the rain moves through. During the rain, wide spread over RH over 80% at 700 mb with omega values over 14 mb/s from 18 UTC on the 30th to the 03 UTC on the 31st. Rain amounts vary from 0.2" to .4" is the model consensus with some models depicting more. Have erred on the low side but future forecasters can focus on exact timing and amount.  Following the passage will be cooler overnight temps and temperatures about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low: 40-44.

Saturday - Clouds clearing during the morning, sunny afternoon. High: 60-64.

Saturday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 48-52.

Sunday - Sunny and breezy. High: 62-66.

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 66-70.

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Discussion:
After the last few days of cooler than average temperatures for mid October, conditions should return to average, with temperatures warming back up for the forecast period. Clouds should move out by Saturday morning allowing for a pleasant Saturday afternoon football game. Clouds may return briefly overnight Saturday, but should come and go by Sunday morning. Pleasant, albeit, breezy conditions should persist for the remainder of the period. 

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Forecaster:  Travis, Ritter, Bongard, Hirsch, Nunes, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
After a soggy start to our Friday, the weekend should see a slow drying out.  GFS and NAM solutions agree fairly well on the progress of our skies through the weekend.  Clouds will take their time clearing out this evening, and we should have a healthy look at the sun on Saturday.  However, Saturday highs should allow for enough mixing to form some Cu or even a StratoCu layer in the afternoon, which should keep our temperatures from getting out of the low to mid 60s.  Late on Saturday night and into Sunday, a weak kata-type cold front is set to push through mid-Missouri, with a few clouds ahead and increasing winds with the FROPA. A surface anticyclone will assert itself into the Columbia by Sunday and continue into Monday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight-  Cloudy with drizzle beginning around midnight. Low: 44-48.

Friday-  Morning drizzle leaving cloudy skies after. High: 50-54.

Friday night- Clouds clearing out through night. Low: 40-44.

Saturday- Clear skies. High: 60-64.

Sunday- Partly Cloudy and breezy. High: 58-62.

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Discussion:

Thursday night is bringing a cold front along with drizzle beginning later in the night and ending Friday morning. Friday will have post cold front clouds linger through the day keeping temps 50-54. Friday night will clear out the clouds in the evening, opening up the skies once again to get temperatures 40-44. Saturday will be a continuation of clear skies, allowing the sun to warm us once again with temps 60-64. Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies in the morning to early afternoon with temps 58-62. Expect a breezy day as well!

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Forecaster:  Myers, Sumrall, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 25, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Seasonable air is settling into the mid-Missouri region as northwesterly flow becomes better established through the end of the weekend.  However, the weather will be unsettled, as a series of impulses will continue to deepen the broad, slow moving H5 S/W as it passes by. Latest output from the GFS, NAM, and FIM all support this premise.  Temperature choices are based upon SREF plumes and KCOU MOS messages, but the latter appeared to be trending too cold.  Minor surface moisture and precipitation seem to be warranted late tonight and into Friday, but seem less so as the weekend wears on.  The FIM and GFS show significant ridging aloft on Monday and Tuesday, so the start of the work week portends better weather.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight-  Cloudy. Low: 39-43.


 
Thursday-  Mostly Cloudy. High: 54-58.

Thursday night- Cloudy and chances of light rain. Low: 41-45.

Friday- Cloudy. High: near 52-56.

Saturday- Cloudy with High near 58.

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Discussion:
Clouds will begin to enter our area overnight Wednesday and during Thursday as cold front comes through the area mid-day. Thursday night there is a chance of light rain after the front passes. Friday will be mostly cloudy as well, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s as the system from Thursday slowly makes its way out of the area.  Saturday clouds will continue as another weak cold front moves through the area.    

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Forecaster:  Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 23, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

We have had a very fall like day here in mid-Missouri and that is due to a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes that is creating the seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies with the exception of recently increasing upper level cirrus clouds. As that high pressure system moves eastward ahead of an approaching cold front, it will drag down our temperatures, highs tomorrow being in the mid to low 50's, along with an increase in cloud cover overnight due to increasing moisture in the upper levels. A cold front will push through the area around 18-21 UTC on Thursday also aiding in the drop in temperatures. It also opens up the slight possibility for some drizzle with chances increasing as we head towards late Thursday evening. There is a swaft of saturated air aloft but from the surface to about 700 mb is quite dry. That moist layer will thicken into tomorrow, leading to only a trace of precipitation. PWATS do increase from about a quarter of an inch to an inch, leading to a slight confidence in precipitation for Thursday. Rain totals will be minimal for mid-MO since the available moisture is quite low in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but most models, at least at this point, are agreeing on a trace of precipitation (around 2mm). The rain chances will clear up as the trough moves out of the area by Friday morning, leaving behind lots of cloud cover and a slight warm up with highs from 54-58. Another weak shortwave trough will move into the area on Saturday but with this system the moisture will be more limited so the chance of precipitation is poor.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight- Mostly clear. Low: 35-39.

Wednesday- Partly Cloudy. High: 56-60.

Wednesday night- Cloudy. Low: 42-46.

Thursday- Cloudy. High: near 54-58.

Friday- Cloudy with a chance of isolated showers. High near 55.

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Discussion:
A high pressure system will reside over the Mid-Missouri area resulting in calm weather and temperatures in the upper 50's. Expect to see generally dry condition with an increase of cloud coverage occuring on Wednesday night. Late Thursday evening through Friday some isloated showers could bring precipation into our local area.  

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Forecaster:  Rojas, Hefner, Brown, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 23, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
 
The low pressure system north of the Great Lakes continues moving eastward, while confluent flow is noted across the Eastern United States.Drier northerly winds will turn southerly by Wednesday afternoon bringing more moisture to the area. The ridge at 700 mb is located north of the Ohio valley and is pulling some moisture northward from Southwest Texas. With yesterday's cold frontal passage, high pressure over the Upper Midwest will dominate our local weather. Expect calm weather with below average temperatures in the upper 50's. On Thursday a shortwave will begin to push in from the northwest. While this shortwave trough brings the potential of precipation, saturation will be difficult to achieve due to a dry layer near the surface. GFS/Euro supports a strong increase in cloud cover with little to no precipation occuring Thursday evening/Friday morning. Later shifts should track and monitor this chance of rain occuring.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight- Clear. Low: 40-44. 

Tuesday- Mostly clear. High: 58-62.

Tuesday night- Mostly clear. Low: 35-39.

Wednesday- Partly Cloudy. High: 54-58.

Thursday- Mostly cloudy. High near 54. 

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Discussion:
The cold front that is in northern Missouri will move in overnight bringing colder temperatures. With low humidity it will remain dry. This will cause temperatures to be below average on Tuesday and through Thursday. Clouds are expected to increase throughout the day Thursday.

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Forecaster:  Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 4:30 p.m., October 22, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Using a blend of both the EURO and GFS, confluent flow was noted over most of the Midwest.  This puts us in between two different jet streams as well as two ridges. A cold front currently positioned across Northern MO should pass through the area between 0000Z and 0600Z tomorrow. With a lack of moisture in the vertical column, expect the front to pass with little affect on our weather. Behind the front, expect surface ridging to move into the area. This will lead to more below average temperatures throughout the rest of the forecast period. Our next low pressure system will eject out of the Rockies on Thursday. With very dry air near the surface, do not expect much in the way of precip, but increasing clouds seems likely. Will defer to later shifts in regards to any precipitation during Thursday.