Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Clear. Low: 34-38.

Thursday - Sunny. High: 58-62.

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42.


 
Friday - Cloudy start, clearing during the day. High in the upper 50's.



Saturday - Sunny.  High near 60.
 

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Discussion:
Clear and cooler than average conditions continue through the rest of the work week here in Mid-Missouri. This is due to a center of high pressure located over southern Illinois and moving eastward, keeping clouds and precipitation to our south. Friday morning, however, the high pressure will start to move out of the area, allowing for a chance to see some of those clouds and rain chances make their way north out in front of a weak cold front that will be arriving Friday evening. Most of the moisture will stay south of Missouri bringing us mostly cloud cover and the occasional light pop-up shower. Once the cold front pushes through, the clouds will clear out by the evening and we will have a slight warm up to more seasonal temperatures into the start of the weekend.

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Forecaster:  Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 16, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
High pressure continues to dominate the Central Plains, with its 1034mb center plotted over southern Illinois keeping us fairly clear and dry overnight.  Little moisture is expected through Thursday, as the surface ridge continues to dominate with zonal flow aloft.  Below average temperatures continue to stick with us throughout the forecast period. Friday the high pressure system moves off to the southeast and winds become more southerly to southwesterly aiding in the warm air advection that comes around, however this will be short-lived. With the GFS and NAM showing a FROPA occurring by Saturday afternoon. With southerly winds Friday and a weak cold front coming through, we see an increase in moisture Friday. Although PWAT values remain at only around an inch and RH values are between 60% to 90% precipitation chances are minimal.  The chances for precipitation for on Friday will be more of a drizzle to light shower variety with minimal accumulations as depicted in the SREF.