Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78

 

   

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56

 

       

Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84

                  

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 54-58

 

Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High: 76-80

 

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Discussion: 

Our warming trend continues today with our high temperatures increasing about 10 degrees from the mid-60s we experienced yesterday. Tonight we cool down into the lower- to mid-50's and remain cloud free. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the period, with high temperatures in the lower-80's, and cloud cover will remain nonexistent. Wednesday night, there may be some upper-level clouds in the area due to a weak cold frontal passage. Low temperatures Wednesday night should be similar to Tuesday night's. The upper level clouds will stay with us into early Thursday morning dissipating as the day goes on. Afternoon highs Thursday should be slightly cooler than Wednesday due to the passage of the front. 

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Forecasters: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 6 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main concern for the forecast period will be temperatures; specifically, the focus was primarily aimed at just how warm mid-Missouri may get tomorrow, and just how much cooler than Wednesday Thursday will be. This forecast used a blend of the 06 UTC NAM and 06 UTC GFS, supplemented by the SREF.

The beginning of this week has been quite pleasant over central Missouri. The upper-level trough that dominated our weather most of last week has now shifted into the Great Lakes region, allowing the upper-level ridge that has been sitting to our southwest to begin to building into the region. With this feature, warmer air has been able to build into the Midwest. Additionally, with the trough departing to our northeast, it has taken all low-level moisture with it, leaving us with cloudless skies yesterday. Veering winds at the low levels of the atmosphere have been apparent over the past 12 hours, further indicating the progression of warmer air into our region.

As we look ahead to the forecast period, our model blend shows the upper-level trough remaining to our northeast, leaving us under the influence of the upper-level ridge. Veering winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are likely to persist through much of the day today, indicating further WAA. Therefore, temperatures today should be much warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the mid- to upper-70s. Overnight lows tonight should be slightly warmer than yesterday night lows. Another day under the ridge Wednesday will result in even warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the low- to mid-80s. Wednesday night into Thursday, the ridge appears to break down somewhat, which will allow a small upper-level disturbance and an associated weak cold front to push through the area. If anything, this disturbance will only be able to muster a few clouds Thursday morning, as there will likely be very little moisture in our area. This will, however, result in cooler temperatures Thursday, with afternoon highs in the upper-70s.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78

 

   

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56

 

       

Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84

                  

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 54-58

 

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Discussion: 

Today we had clear skies and windier conditions due to a high pressure system to our east. The next few days will also be cloudless and we will see a slight warmup from the southerly winds we started to see today. Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy like today as those southerly winds continue to pick up and bring us warmer than average conditions this week.

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Forecasters: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  5 PM CDT 5 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

We used a general model blend of the NAM and GFS ensembles to create this forecast. The main focus for our time period is breezier conditions on the backside of a surface high that is expected to warm Mid-MO up through the week.

Zonal flow exists across the central CONUS behind the cold front that brought us some rain and below average conditions this weekend. An anticyclone with a central pressure of 1028hPa is situated over southern Illinois today, and Columbia's pressure has been decreasing quite a bit as this system continues to move to our east. As of this morning, a dry cold front existed to our northwest, but it is expected to become quasi-stationary through the next few days due to its very slow movement. Windy conditions at the surface exist across Missouri due to this larger pressure difference across the state as we shift from cooler to warmer surface temperatures.

Models suggest that a ridge will start to form over a majority of the Midwest through the week with no moisture associated with it from the surface up. The aforementioned cold front is not expected to really change our weather pattern at all, at least not for this forecast period. After looking at forecasted Skew-T's from the GFS and NAM for Wednesday (when the front is supposed to approach us), winds start to shift from the south to the west and around the compass to the east by the end of the day. This still signifies veering winds and WAA which verify our warmer forecast. No moisture is expected to be advected into the region during this time. Future forecasters should pay attention to how this front continues to move across the Midwest, but at this point, it does not pose a threat to shaking up the weather in Mid-MO.

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Sunny. Breezy in the afternoon. High: 68-72 

Monday Night - Clear skies. Breezy during the evening. Low: 46-50

 

   

 

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78

 

       

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56

                  

Wednesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 80-84

 

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Discussion: 

After a weekend that was cool, cloudy, and even a bit rainy at times, the overall pattern will shift this week. A large area of high pressure that has been situated in the southwestern United States for some time will expand northeast into the Midwest today, bringing with it cloudless skies and some gusty winds this afternoon and evening. This ridge will also bring much warmer temperatures to mid-Missouri, with high temperatures this afternoon and overnight lows tonight sitting near average, and both high and low temperatures over the next couple of days being well above average.

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Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 5 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

A pleasant, albeit warm forecast is in store for central Missouri during this period. The biggest

concern during this forecast is determining just how warm we will get, which at present looks to be 

pretty warm. This shift used the 06 UTC run of the GFS as primary guidance, supplemented by the 

SREF.

 

This morning, it was clear and chilly outside, with frost being observed around Columbia. Skies were 

able to clear yesterday as a 250-hPa jet streak and 500-hPa shortwave trough moved into the 

eastern CONUS. These upper-level features took with them the low level moisture we experienced 

early in the weekend, leaving us with a pleasant but cool Sunday. Clear skies persisted overnight and 

into this morning as the ridge built in further, leaving us with some frost this morning.

 

Looking ahead to the next few days, we have a pretty significant warm up in store. The solution from 

the GFS suggests the upper-level ridge to our southwest will continue to build northeast over our 

area, replacing the trough that dominated our weather last week. With the ridge building north, any 

disturbances and associated moisture should be confined to the Great Lakes region through the 

period. GFS Skew-T's also show veering winds greater than 20 kts in the lowest 150 hPa of the 

atmosphere this afternoon and tonight. This will, of course, mean breezy conditions at the surface, 

but will also help usher in warm air late this afternoon and tonight. While high temperatures this 

afternoon and morning lows tomorrow should be near average, this WAA will result in high and low 

temperatures tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning, respectively, that are 5-10 degrees above 

normal. The ridge should be firmly in place by Wednesday, which will leave us with even warmer high 

temperatures Wednesday that will be 10 to perhaps as much as 15 degrees above normal for this time 

of year.

 

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Increasing clouds. Becoming cloudy overnight. Low: 44-48

 

 

Saturday - Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. High: 52-56

Saturday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Morning fog possible. Low: 42-46

Sunday - Mostly clear. High: 60-64

 

 

Monday - Clear skies. 68-72

 

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Discussion: 

The sunny skies we enjoyed today will give way to increasing clouds as the night goes on. Saturday will remain cloudy with scattered showers, so be sure to bring an umbrella on your way outside. The cloud cover will clear off Saturday night with a low in the mid 40s. Morning fog may be possible on Sunday, but will clear off after sunrise as we reach our high around the low 60s. Monday will bring us clear skies and a high in the upper 60s. 

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Forecaster: Vochatzer, Orr, Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 2 October, 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Another period of fairly active weather is ramping up for the region this weekend. Went primarily with GFS guidance with blend of SREF, GEFS, and GFS/NAM MOS for narrowing down temps. 

As the sun sets on Friday, clouds will begin to set in ahead of the system that will impact the majority of our forecast period. GFS 250-hPa and 500-hPa plots of geopotential height shows a shortwave disturbance propagating down from the Upper Midwest embedded in the greater longwave trough currently parked over the NE CONUS and SE Canada. 500-hPa vorticity shows a prominent circulating maximizing over MO Saturday morning (~12z). This, combined with the large swath of 80-100% RH saturated air over the Midwest as shown at 700 hPa, will bring chances for rain into Saturday morning. Overnight Friday winds at 850 hPa shift out of the SW and a prominent LLJ originating from the warmer, moister region Southern Plains will help advect the aforementioned moisture to fuel showers. Seeing as this LLJ originates in the more continental tropical (cT) airmass rather than a maritime tropical (mT) airmass over the Gulf, moisture does not look to be overly abundant. GFS Skew-Ts never favor a fully saturated column. Models have been continuous with a "zipper" closing in by 12z on Saturday. Though would not be surprised to have larger drops overcome evaporation in the surface dry layer and make it to the ground in the form of light rain beforehand. Seeing as the column never fully saturates, it is more likely that we will see scattered showers throughout the state. Widespread persistent rain looks much less likely. The lower levels of the atmosphere dry out fairly quickly due to the lack of abundant moisture. Precip most likely exists the area before 18z Saturday. 

As Saturday progresses clouds will remain until overnight when the surface low-pressure system itself passes right to the south (over SW to SE MO) of mid-Missouri. This will cause our winds to be variable late Saturday night finally shifting out of the NNW as the cyclone moves off to the ENE following the pressure falls from the NE propagating SW at 500 hPa. As the shortwave moves out of our region, the parent LW begins to break down slightly and scoot off to the NE taking with it any significantly cooler air that may have wanted to surge southward. 

GFS soundings point to a strong near-surface inversion setting up over Saturday night. This is probably helped by the evaporative cooling of the morning rain combined with decreasing cloudiness and allowance for decent radiational cooling. This knowledge combined with light winds at the surface bring with them the chances for fog Sunday morning. Seeing how skies clear out nicely overnight Saturday into Sunday, any fog that does form will likely burn off quickly after sunrise. Behind the exiting SW flow turns zonal. This is reflected by high pressure at the surface that will keep our Sunday and Monday calm and clear. As the center of the surface anticyclone sits just off to our east, south westerly winds will return. This will allow our temperatures to increase above average for early October potentially reaching into the lower 70s. The strength of the building anticyclone will determine how high our temperatures reach. Model continuity has been lackluster with temperatures as dprog/dt of the SREF has seen a substantial warming trend. As such have left room for potential continuation of the warming trend and thus went warmer than model guidance suggested for Monday.

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday - Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy in the evening. High: 58-62

Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 46-50

Saturday - Morning rain. Mostly cloudy gradually clearing. High: 52-56

Saturday Night - Clearing skies. Low: 40-44

 

 

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 60-64

 

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Discussion: 

Pleasant day on Friday starting out with some sunshine but giving way to clouds by Friday evening and highs approaching 60 Friday afternoon. Waking up Saturday morning to scattered rain showers and an overall cloudy day Saturday with highs in the mid-50s. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light in the range of 0.1-0.2 inches. A cold front Saturday night will bring clearing skies and take lows down into the low 40s. Sunday we return to nicer conditions as we see partly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s.

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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard

Issued:  10 AM CDT 2 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Initial conditions as the start of the forecast period Friday morning has temperatures beginning to rebound from the upper 30's into the low 40's as insolation begins to warm the region. Diagnostics reveal a long wave ridge-trough pattern across the CONUS with a moderate trough draped over the Northern Plains through New England. This places mid-Missouri just west of the trough axis enjoying northwesterly flow lending to the cold overnight lows and potential for frost. The 06Z GFS will be used for this forecast as the model is handling initial conditions much more accurately than its NAM counterpart. SREF and GEFS plumes will be used as supplemental data along with GFS soundings. 

Upper level modeling is indicative of the ridge-trough pattern across the CONUS seen in diagnostics. The nose of a northwest-southeast jet streak embedded in the western flank of the long wave trough will force its way into the Midwest by Friday evening. The trough over the eastern half of the CONUS will amplify over the course of Friday night and Saturday as a frontal boundary develops just to the northwest of the forecast area. The jet streak will orient in a north-south direction in the upstream flow of the trough by 21Z Saturday. 500-mb vorticity maps reveal vorticity advecting into the region from the northwest as a shortwave treks into the area riding the northwesterly flow. Vorticity will remain over Missouri for much of the forecast period as the shortwave develops into the frontal boundary that is expected to pass through central Missouri by late Saturday night. Vorticity will linger through midday Sunday before vacating the region late Sunday afternoon. The moisture profile in GFS model soundings leaves something to be desired as the column slowly saturates from the top down overnight Friday into Saturday as the boundary encroaches on the region. If with the lower levels moistening up by 12Z Saturday morning PWAT values are paltry meandering between 0.75 -0.85 inches. Some low level forcing will be available during the morning hours Saturday to promote scattered precipitation across the region. The K-index struggles to get above 27 during the crucial part of the forecast period. This evidence suggests the chance for scattered rain showers in the AM hours of Saturday with rainfall accumulations being hampered by the lack of significant moisture. Accumulations will range between 0.1 and 0.2 across the region depending on the locale and where showers trek. The culprit for this lack of moisture seems to be a surface high pressure system over central Texas that is cutting Gulf moisture off from the Midwest thanks to its eastern flank. Therefore the only moisture this frontal system has to work with is riding the northwest flow down from Canada. 

Fropa is expected late Saturday evening potentially into Sunday with not much fanfare outside of falling temperatures. Lows Saturday night into Sunday will fall into the low 40's. Sunday will enjoy a post frontal weather regime with partly cloudy skies and temperatures rebounding only into the low 60's.  

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night -Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

 

 

Friday - Partly cloudy. Becoming mostly cloudy by evening. High: 58-62

Friday Night - Becoming cloudy. Low: 44-48

Saturday - Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. High: 56-60

 

 

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 56-60

 

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Discussion: 

On Thursday night, Columbia will experience calm skies with lower temperatures than the previous nights. Moving into Friday, expect to see clouds increasing as the day continues and reaching cloudy skies by nighttime. Friday's daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler than Thursday's, but will stay warmer throughout the night. Clouds from Friday are expected to continue into Saturday, where light rain can be anticipated in the morning, but tapering off by afternoon. Early Sunday, a cold front passes through Columbia, keeping temperatures steady.

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Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Travis

Issued:  5 PM CDT 1 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main concern for this forecast period is the potential first frost of the season as temperatures will continue to plummet to end off the week. Attention then turns to the next system that will drop out of the north into the Midwest that will bring with it chances for rain into Saturday. The GFS was used for overall pattern recognition while GEFS and SREF were consulted for temperature patterns.

Much of south-central Canada and the Upper Midwest remain on the poleward side of LW trough for the entire forecast period so suggests GFS plots of 250-hPa heights and wind. This will allow cold air to surge south. GFS 700-hPa RH plots are in good agreement that moisture associated with the parent LW trough will stay confined to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds at 850 hPa will stay out of the NNW, allowing the cold air to penetrate further south into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The GFS wants to keep the 850 hPa 0-C isotherm to the north of Columbia. Temperatures could very well dip into the upper 30s and possibly lower. Would not be surprised to see the potential for frost early Friday morning as skies will remain clear and winds relatively calm. 

Attention turns to a SW seen in 500-hPa heights and vorticity that both models want propagating along the parent LW mentioned earlier. As the aforementioned high pressure at 850 hPa and the surface slides to the east over the Middle Mississippi Valley, winds will see a shift from northwest to southwest coinciding with the wave's arrival. The LLJ originating from the Gulf sets up over the Southern Plains that will advect plenty of moisture into the Middle Mississippi Valley during the day on Friday. The moisture, combined with the dynamically primed SW will result in high chances for precip Friday evening into Saturday. GFS soundings show a moistening of the lower levels with a closing "zipper" at the surface occurring around 09 to 12z Saturday. GFS continuity has been pretty poor with this system as yesterday's 12z GFS had full saturation occurring Friday afternoon around 21z. Regardless, seems more likely that precip will begin early Saturday morning in the form of scattered showers throughout mid-Missouri. 

GFS soundings indicate a drying out of the column by 18z Saturday, so showers should taper off by then. However, soundings do not fully dry out so clouds will remain into the evening on Saturday until potential FROPA Saturday night into Sunday. Around 06z on Sunday winds take a hard shift from southeasterly to northwesterly hinting at the passage of a cold front. The column dries out almost completely (save for likely fair weather cumulus clouds) during the day on Sunday. Sunday soundings from the GFS show straight northerly winds at the surface and northwesterly winds aloft will keep temperatures from rising significantly on Sunday and thus will likely see similar temps to Saturday highs.