Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Today - Cloudy, rainy, and chance for afternoon thunderstorms .  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Cloudy, rainy, and localized thunderstorms. Low:  68-72. 

Wednesday - Cloudy, rainy, and thunderstorms .  High: 78-82.

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with some lingering showers. Low:  68-72.

Thursday - Partly Sunny.  High: 84-88.

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Discussion: An active weather pattern looks to set up for the week, but for now, both today and tomorrow look to bring much needed rain to the area. For today, at the time of the issuance of the this forecast, rain has already moved into the area. For most of the morning, light rain should persist with a dry period during the lunch hour until mid-afternoon, when showers should ramp. Overnight, conditions are favorable for a longer period of rain with thunderstorms as well. Rain will continue into Wednesday with the heaviest rain being in the afternoon. Clouds will persist for these days limiting temperatures across the region to slightly below to right at normal. Overall, we can expect over an inch when the rain has finally stopped. Once this weather clears out, the sun flicker in and out of clouds all day Thursday bringing temperatures to the middle 80s across the region.
Forecaster:  Hirsch  
Issued:  12:14 p.m., August 14, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Rain has set across the region but models indicate that the heaviest rain looks to be in southern MO. SREF and NAM indicate that by the end of the event, we can expect 1-1.5 inches of rain across the region. The current weather system is associated with a surface low in SE Kansas. A stationary front sits across MO and drapes from Chillcothe to KLSX onward. This will continue to push north and transition into a warm front. The low will move NE and clip the upper portions of the state putting most of MO into the warm sector for the next few days. Most of Tuesday afternoon looks to be dry, but due to day time heating, some showers could trigger. Most of the rain is expected overnight as we look to be on the fringes of an MCS that will form. The LLJ has an apex over southern MO making it the prime area for development. Moisture is not an issue over the next few days as winds out of the south provide a rich environment for moisture with PWATs over 2 inches. Wednesday looks to have periods of rain with thunderstorms in the afternoon associated with a cold front passage. This will be the trigger area for heavy rain. Severe potential is limited as shear is relatively weak and the cooler temperatures will dampen lapse rates.

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