Friday, August 17, 2018

Today - Partly sunny.  High:  84-88.

Tonight - Partly moony. Low:  66-70.

Saturday -  Mostly Sunny High: 86-90.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  66-70.

Sunday - Mostly sunny then chance late afternoon thunderstorms.  High: 86-90.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Expect calm weather for the next few days after the passage of the cold front early this morning. This cold front will continue to filter some slighter cooler air in for Friday as temperatures are in the mid 80s for the region which is a relief compared to the high of 93 F we saw yesterday. Moisture will remain in the atmosphere allowing for a mix of sun and clouds today. The rain that fell will also allow for patchy fog overnight, mainly in low lying regions. Fog will quickly burn off however as the sun comes and we reach the upper 80s again. Sunday will also be sunny but afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible as another weather feature brings in a wet evening. The start of the semester looks a bit damp.
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  10:38 a.m., August 17, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) The NAM was used for this forecast as the 06Z run more accurately depicted the current state of the atmosphere and what is expected over the remaining morning hours. Temperatures have been tempered down slightly to reflect the CAA after FROPA last night. While they still will be near average for this time of year, NW flow will bring some slightly cooler air. Low level moisture (850-700 mb) still exists in the atmosphere allowing for clouds and sun throughout the day. Winds overnight will be at or below 5 kts allowing for patchy fog to occur moisture evaporates from the rain on Thursday night bring dewpoints up to the temperature. Saturday has zonal flow and most of the moisture move out so sunny and seasonal temperatures will return. The pleasant weather continues for Sunday as a 500 mb disturbance brings more rain into the area. The best time for rain development will be after 21 UTC on Sunday as >80% RH and -5 mb/s values of omega will be just to our west. The associated surface front will serve as a point for storm initiation. The rain looks to be a bit of a soaker for the region and is something forecasters need to keep an eye on. 

No comments:

Post a Comment