Thursday, August 23, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late afternoon. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms. Low:  60-64.

Friday -  Morning thunderstorms with afternoon clearing. Chance late afternoon thunderstorm High: 84-88.

Friday Night - 
Chance thunderstorm, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 90-94.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: The next 36-42 hours will be a wet one. This morning looks dry as cool temperatures continue. However, by mid afternoon, clouds will start to build as a warm front moves into the area. This could trigger some afternoon thunderstorms, but the main concern is the rain we will see overnight. This will start anytime after 6 pm and will continue into the mid-morning hours on Friday. The heaviest rain will be after midnight and before sunrise. Clouds could break up Friday afternoon and if so, could allow the atmosphere to produce some afternoon thunderstorms as well. When our rain chances end, we could see between 1/2 to 1 inch of rain that feel around the area. Saturday dries out and the sun returns, but so does the humidity and warm temperatures. Heat indices will once again become an issue.  
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  10:59 a.m., August 23, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The strong for summer ridge continues to shift off to the east, keeping us in a northerly flow at the surface. However aloft, the winds between 700-850 mb shift to south which will start to advect in moisture. This shift is what will aid in the development of the anticipated nighttime rain. Thursday starts off dry and sunny but an approaching warm front from the south moves close to the area. By 21 UTC, models indicate a potential for scattered afternoon showers. This is in conjunction with the current low location and associated rain in eastern KS and western MO. Rain is expected overnight and will initially be elevated as the warm front passes through. The LLJ reaches 50 kts and coupled with -10 mb/s 700 mb omega and ample moisture, overnight MCS very likely. For 6 hours or so, KCOU will be at the nose of the LLJ which is a favorable area for development and heavy rain. The MCS will move out of the region by 18 UTC but late afternoon storms are possible. After FROPA, clouds remain and warm temperatures come back. This daytime heating could destabilize the atmosphere again and give us a chance for afternoon thunderstorms especially if the sun comes out at any point. NE MO looks to have the greatest chance of severe weather as SPC has a slight while KCOU remains in the marginal. Severe weather looks slim for our area. By the end of the rain, we will easily see over 1/2" of rain with some models like the SREF indicating almost 1 inch. This will provide some relief for the area from the drought.

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