Friday, August 24, 2018

Friday Afternoon - Mix of sun and clouds.  High:  84-88.

Tonight - Scattered thunderstorms. Low:  68-72.

Saturday -  Sunny and humid. High: 92-96.

Saturday Night -  Mostly clear. Low:  70-74.

Sunday - Mostly sunny. High: 92-94.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Cooler weather remains for the remainder of Friday afternoon before summer comes back with a vengeance this weekend. A mix of sun and clouds will persist as we feel some lingering effects of the storms from last night. A chance for severe weather is possible for this evening, but the best location looks to be at the MO/IA border. This will move south overnight and by midnight, there is a chance for thunderstorms. By this point storms should have weakened so severe potential is limited. After this, the mid 90s returns for both Saturday and Sunday along with the sunshine. Expect heat indices to get into the upper 90s and even low 100s. Summer has come back in full swing. 
Forecaster:  Hirsch and Niemeyer
Issued:  1:20 p.m., August 24, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
At the start of the forecast period, the NAM was identified as the model of the day as the 12 UTC output best emulated the overnight rain shield. NAM Skew-ts depict clouds breaking apart after 18 UTC allowing for some daytime heating. This heating will allow parcels at the mid-levels to be convectively buoyant and the 2700+ J/kg of CAPE indicate the potential for some thunderstorms. Storms however will initiate on the MO/IA border which will be the best potential for severe weather. By the time it rolls to KCOU, by 06 UTC, it should weaken to where wind and hail criteria can be reached, but odds are low. The sun will return for the rest of the weekend. The moisture that fell will create a steamy weekend with heat indices back in play.

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