Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Today - Mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers .  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Cloudy with cleaning late overnight. Low:  68-72. 

Thursday - Morning fog, than partly sunny.  High: 86-90.

Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Friday - Cloudy with morning rain and afternoon thunderstorms.  High: 84-88.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion:Rain continues to be in the forecast but there we do get a day of reprieve. For Wednesday, the clouds will see some occasional breaks which will allow for daytime heating for afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Once the sun goes away however, we will remain dry overnight and clouds will move out allowing for a somewhat sunnier Thursday. Due to the moisture from the rain and lack of wind overnight, Thursday morning could have some fog, especially in low lying area. Thursday will be dry as we are between systems. The next one will approach from the west on Friday morning where a surface cold front will bring rain in the morning out ahead of the front with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Forecaster:  Hirsch  
Issued:  11:53 a.m., August 15, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The surface low that has been the feature of the forecast for both yesterday and today has continue to the progress and sits on the MO/IA border and will continue to push off to our west throughout the day and overnight. While showers existed in the morning, there looks to be a bit of dryness during the middle of the day with which could allow for some cloud breaks allowing for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. HRRR shows this potential after 20Z with precip leaving the area by 00Z. Overnight, the clouds will persist but slowly clear out as winds remain calm. Combined with the moisture on the ground, fog looks likely, especially in low lying regions as dewpoints will remain high as little mixing is expected to occur. Moisture remains throughout the column to 500 mb allowing for cloud coverage during the day on Thursday, but drying should occur through this depth allowing for a mix of sun and clouds. Another short wave will impact the area on Friday which looks to bring more rain. GFS shows morning showers and evening thunderstorms with CAPE between 1500-1900 J/kg during the afternoon hours. With little shear, directional or speed, there is little support for severe weather other than the cold front associated with the low. QPF from the GFS and SREF indicate less than a .25" while areas further SE of COU will receive the bulk of the moisture.

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