Monday, August 20, 2018

Today - Cloudy, chance afternoon rain.  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Cloudy. Low:  62-66.

Tuesday -  Mostly cloudy. High: 78-82.

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  58-62.

Wednesday - Mostly sunny.  High: 78-82.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: A dominate low pressure will affect us for the next 12 hours and have lasting effects on our forecast for the forecast period. For Monday, the low continues to give us clouds for the region with isolated showers for the afternoon. The best time looks to be before 5 pm, but conditions could allow for a light shower overnight, but overall, expect to be dry. Clouds continue for Tuesday as ample low level moisture exist, but we will be dry. By Wednesday, expect clouds to clear out and for us to the see sun. In addition to clouds and precip, the low brings in air from the north which will allow highs and lows for this time of year to be cooler than normal. We can see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with overnight lows hovering near 60. Enjoy the cooler weather while it last because this is not quite what is expected for August in Missouri. 
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  12:56 p.m., August 20, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The main attention for the forecast turns to the well devloped occluded low in south-central Iowa. This low is what brought the .23" of rain overnight to the region. The cold front passage will greatly affect our weather as we remain in a northerly flow for the forecast period. GFS and HRRR indicate the potential for wrap around moisture of the occluded system from 20 UTC to 23 UTC being the main time frame. Ample moisture  and weak vertical velocity will allow for development but it will remain scattered. Overnight has the potential for very isolated showers in the region, but due to the isolated nature, have gone with the drier forecast. The NW flow remains as a 1020 mb high pressure moves over the central CONUS. This will give us cooler than average temperatures for the forecast period. RH still remains high on Tuesday so expect stratus clouds all day. The atmosphere dries out on Wednesday as the high assumes control. Temperatures still remain cool for Wednesday. 

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