Thursday, August 16, 2018

Today - Partly sunny.  High:  88-92.

Tonight - Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered thunderstorms developing after sunset. Low:  68-72.

Friday - Cloudy in the morning with scattered rain showers, becoming partly sunny in throughout the day   High: 86-90.

Friday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Saturday - Mostly sunny.  High: 86-90.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: The active weather continues as rain showers appear likely overnight. Thursday will be hot and sticky as temperatures get into the upper 80s and low 90s with high humidity. Heat indices will get into the mid and upper 90s around the region. This environment, along with a weak cold front, will set the stage for evening showers, mainly after the 7 pm with the most likely timing for rain to be between 10 pm and 2 am. Showers could linger on Friday until noon as we feel some remaining effects of the frontal passage. This will be scattered and areas will slowly clearly out as we transition to a partly sunny afternoon. The start of the weekend looks to be a great way to welcome students back as temperatures hover around normal for this time of year and the sun shines bright on their eager faces as they return to school.
Forecaster:  Hirsch and Market
Issued:  12:29 p.m., August 15, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A H5 disturbance located over eastern Nebraska is collocated with the surface low and cold front over this portion of the country. This disturbance will push eastward giving KCOU rain overnight. There is plenty of moisture  as dew points will be in the 70s and this coupled with PWATs in excess of 1.5" give confidence that the expected FROPA will bring rain. Have worked with a blend of the GFS and SREF. Both models agree that 02Z to 07Z are the most likely times for rain to occur with 1/4" to 3/4" possible. HRRR also agrees with this timing. Most of this appears stratiform due to time and lack of forcing, but CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg and mid-level shear of 20-30 kts indicate a potential for isolated wind and hail reaching severe criteria. SPC has placed a slight region just to the west of KCOU and covers the SW portion of the state. Severe weather could carry over but will be isolated at best and once daytime heating is gone, will really diminish chances. Models keep isolated showers through 18Z Friday and expect isolated showers through then. Once the front moves through, clouds will slowly clear. A zonal flow sets up over the day on Saturday bringing calm conditions to the area for the start of the weekend.

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