Monday, August 13, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny.  High:  90-94.

Tonight - Cloudy. Low:  68-72. 

Tuesday - Cloudy and thunderstorms .  High: 76-80.

Tuesday Night - Cloudy and thunderstorms. Low:  68-72.

Wednesday - Thunderstorms.  High: 78-82.

Thanks to for the icons!

Discussion: The hot and dry weather after today will cease to exit as the next few days look to be active. Temperatures for today will look to remain just above average for this time of year before a low develops off to west that will move through bringing rain by mid-morning to the Columbia. This rain will not be all day but will be off and on. This looks to continue through Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday with rain moving out by Wednesday night. This cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s during this time of the forecast period. By the end of it, we could easily see over 1 inch of much needed area for Missouri with areas further south seeing more than this. Keep that umbrella handy!
Forecaster:  Hirsch  
Issued:  1:09 p.m., August 13, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The GFS and NAM for Tuesday and Wednesday have some disagreement on the strength and location of the rain for these days. Rain on Tuesday will start by 15Z and is associated with a warm front moving through. The rain on Wednesday is associated with the surface low as a cold front moves through. These fronts are the reason for the expected rain showers. Rain looks to stop by 03Z Thursday. The GFS is more aggressive bringing more rain to the area and giving southern MO 3+ inches while the NAM is a bit conservative with just above 2. This amount of rain in the area could easily impact what KCOU sees and as such, have erred on the low side for today. Total values will need to watched. Thunderstorms are expected as CAPE is near 2000 J/kg for the area but lack of shear tampers any severe expectations for the region. A continuous source of moisture will provide ample clouds keeping cooler temperatures for the region.

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