Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny.  High:  86-90. 

Tonight - Moonlit skies.  Low:  64-68.

Thursday - Mostly sunny, with isolated afternoon showers.  High:  88-92. 

Thursday Night - Mainly clear. Low:  66-70. 

Friday - Mostly sunny.  High: 90-94.

Discussion:  Seasonable temperatures have returned to the mid-Missouri area for the next few days.  A weak upper air disturbance will push by the area on Thusday, giving us a brief shot at a shower or even a rumble of thunder in the mid- to late-afternoon hours.  

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
NAM and SREF solutions dominate this outlook periods, with some expectation of diurnal precipitation late in the day on Thursday.  This is an outlier possibilty, but one that can't be overlooked given the approach of a weak H5 S/W and sufficient PBL moisture, both of which create the greatest threat for convection at about the same time (1500 to 1900 CDT).  After that period, zonal flow becomes better established, and more typical temperatures will return for early August. 
Forecasters:  Hirsch, Market(s) and Ritter
Issued:  11:52 a.m., August 1, 2018

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