Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Today - Cloudy with mix of afternoon sun and clouds.  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low:  60-64.

Wednesday -  Mostly sunny. High: 78-82.

Wednesday Night - Mostly clear. Low:  58-62.

Thursday - Mostly sunny with chance for afternoon showers.  High: 78-82.

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Discussion: Unseasonably cool weather is in store during the forecast period. That low that moved through is still providing plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to create clouds for a majority of the day. The atmosphere should start to dry out of the afternoon as the low moves off to the east and a strong high pressure takes it's place. The high will give us a N/NW wind direction that will provide cooler air. Rain comes into the forecast again on Thursday afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to occur overnight and future forecasters should key in on timing and amounts.
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  11:04 a.m., August 21, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The after effects of the recent cold frontal passage and impacts are the main focus for the forecast today. The GFS was used as it allowed for the entirety of the forecast event on Thursday. The occluded low over northern MO and southern Iowa continues will push off to east over the afternoon hours. This will take some moisture with it, but clouds still remain due to evaporation with the associated rain from last night. As the low pushes off, a strong 1024 mb high moves into the area. This will give us a northerly flow which will bring in some cooler air. Temperatures could be up to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Another front approaches by 21 UTC on Thursday but at this points soundings indicate only rain for the area. This looks to intensify as the column becomes fully saturated and the forcing intensifies overnight, thanks to the aid of the LLJ. The amount CAPE associated with the system appears to be low so severe potential looks low. Amounts right now look to be between 0.3 to 0.7 inches during this event. Close monitoring of this event will need to looked at for future forecasters.

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