Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny.  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Mostly clear. Low:  58-62.

Thursday -  Mostly sunny with chance afternoon t-storms. High: 78-82.

Thursday Night -  Rain and thunderstorms. Low:  60-64.

Friday - Early morning thunderstorms then mostly cloudy. Chance scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High: 84-88.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Pleasant weather continues for one more day before rain becomes a concern again. Temperatures today continue to be in the upper 70s to low 80s today with plenty of sunshine. This is the pick day of the forecast period as another warm moves into the area starting Thursday afternoon. There is a chance for scattered afternoon showers but the bulk of the moisture will be overnight. This looks to be a wet and stormy night. During this time period we can easily see 1/2" of rainfall by mid-Friday morning. We should dry out by 10 on Friday but clouds remains while warmer temperatures start to creep back in. The daytime warming could trigger some afternoon thunderstorms. 
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  9:41 a.m., August 22, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The GFS was used as the NAM was only providing 00 UTC output. The strong for summer ridge, 1024, continues to shift off to the east, keeping us in a northerly flow. This has brought in cooler and drier air that will continue for the next 24 hours. Temperatures overnight due to night time cooling could be 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Thursday starts off dry and sunny but an approaching warm front from the south moves close to the area. By 21 UTC, there is a potential for scattered afternoon showers as models show. Confidence is low as the front is still in SW MO for this time frame. Rain is expected overnight and will initially be elevated as the warm front passes through. The LLJ reacher 40 kts and coupled with -7 mb/s 700 mb omega and ample moisture, an overnight MCS looks very likely. The MCS will move out of the region by 14 UTC but could still linger for most of the morning. After FROPA, clouds remain and warm temperatures come back. This warming could destabilize the atmosphere again and give us a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. NE MO looks to have the greatest chance of severe weather as SPC has a slight while KCOU remains in the marginal. The timing, placement, and likelihood of severe weather seems slim for our area, but future forecasters should watch this closely. 

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